Trends Identified
Trends in ageing
As fertility declines and life expectancy rises, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over increases. In 2015, there were 901 million people aged 60 or over, comprising 12 percent of the global population. While the Asia-Pacific region has the world’s largest number of people aged 60 or over (7 percent, or 508 million), Europe has the largest percentage of its population of this age (24 percent, or 177 million). In the coming years, rapid ageing will occur in many parts of the world, with older persons expected to account for more than 25 percent of the population in Europe and Northern America, 20 percent in Oceania and 17 percent in Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean, as opposed to only 6 percent in Africa by 2030.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Trends in migration
The world is living in an era of unprecedented human mobility, in which international migration has reached record levels. The 2030 Agenda sees international migration as a multidimensional reality that is of major relevance for the development of countries of origin, transit and destination, and recognizes the positive contribution of migrants for inclusive growth and sustainable development. While today it has become easier, faster and more affordable for people to move, factors such as poverty, inequality, lack of decent jobs, conflicts and natural hazards compel people to leave their homes in search of better lives for themselves and their families.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Trends in urbanization
Along with international migration, internal migration is also growing, driving much of the rise of megacities17 and the rapid increase in urbanization (Figure 12). The number of megacities, for instance, nearly tripled to 28 today from 10 in 1990; they have 453 million inhabitants, accounting for 12 percent of the world’s urban dwellers (IOM 2015). While large cities are in certain ways the leading edge of urbanization due to their economic importance, the fastest growing urban centres are in fact small and medium cities with fewer than 1 million inhabitants, which account for 59 percent of the world’s urban population (UN-Habitat 2016). Due to demographic shifts, slow and uneven economic growth within and among nations, and environmental degradation, increased large-scale migration to urban centres is expected to continue (IOM 2015).
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Environmental Degradation and Climate Change
It is now widely recognized that the causes of environmental degradation and climate change—and their potential solutions—are essentially linked to human activity (IPCC 2015). The impact of human activity on the environment and the climate is one of the megatrends that will shape future trajectories of—and can potentially undermine— progress on sustainable development, including on eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Economic and trade downturn
The effects of the 2008 financial crisis, for instance, spread to developing countries, primarily through declines in trade and commodity prices and reduced access to credit, as lower demand in developed countries damaged export revenues and slowed economic growth in developing countries (UN DESA 2011). While developing countries overall managed to absorb the shock of the 2008 crisis, their responses increased fiscal deficits and deteriorated current-account balances. As these indicators have not reverted to their pre-crisis levels in many developing countries, there will be limited capacity in future to absorb another major economic shock (UN MDG Gap Task Force 2015).
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Unemployment
The global unemployment rate during the MDG period fell from 6.5 percent in 2000 to 5.5 percent in 2007 but increased to 6.2 percent in 2009 due to the downturn of economic activity during the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, however, the unemployment rate worldwide has been declining steadily, reaching 5.8 percent in 2016, and is projected to fall further in the coming years
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Conflicts and violence
In the post-World War II period, while the number of external or interstate conflicts (conflicts between two or more states) declined, there has been an upsurge in internal or intrastate conflicts (conflicts between a government and non-state actors within a state) (IEP 2016). In 2015, for instance, there were 280 intrastate conflicts, in contrast to 74 interstate conflicts, with internal conflicts constituting about 80 percent of the global conflict count (HIIK 2015, 2016).
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Disasters
Disasters associated with natural hazards have become more frequent during the past 20 years (Figure 18).38 Between 1996 and 2015, the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) estimated a total of 8,104 disasters related to natural hazards across all continents, with 4.1 billion people affected by these events, which is almost twice the level recorded between 1976 and 1995.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Disease outbreaks
Ncidence rates of HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) have fallen since 2000 (Figure 19), and the number of deaths due to various types of infectious diseases, including parasitic diseases and respiratory infections, declined globally from 12.1 million in 2000 to 9.5 million in 2012.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Hunger and food insecurity
The global demand for food is projected to increase by 50 percent by 2030 compared with the current needs in order to meet the increasing demand of the world’s growing population (Maggio, Van Criekinge and Malingreau 2015). The growing global population, along with accelerating urbanization and deteriorating natural resources, implies that there are more people to feed with less water, land and rural labour (FAO 2015). Finding a sustainable solution to providing more food to nearly 9 billion people by 2030 without harming the environment thus poses a great challenge for the 2030 Agenda and SDG 2 on ending hunger in particular.
2017
Global trends
UNDP