Trends Identified
Changing power in the international system
In many ways, the power balance in the international system in 2017 looks broadly similar to the world in 2000. Yet in some fundamental ways, the world has changed considerably. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have left its participants wary of foreign intervention. China has expanded its global presence. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to intervene in neighbouring countries and attack democracies with information ‘wars’. And the impact of the 2007-08 financial crisis has hit many nations’ capabilities to fund military increases. There are some broad trends that are likely to continue through 2035: the United States will remain the largest military power; China and regional leaders will see their power grow; Russia will focus on areas of asymmetric advantage to counteract its declining population; and the creation of a unified European military structure with significant expeditionary power will be one of the biggest wild cards in the international system.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Politics of the Information Age
Politics often evolves as a reaction to changing societal and economic trends. There is evidence -- from measures on inequality to the percentage of the economy comprised of services -- that in much of the developed world, the industrial era has transitioned to an information economy. Political reactions to these economic changes are already underway across the United States and Europe. While they are highly unlikely to completely overturn the existing political landscape by 2035, they will add new layers that will shift partisan coalitions and incentive structures. Some of the most important aspects will be industry disruption and political competition for new or more important voting blocs such as newly upper middle class professionals, former industry workers, gig economy contractors, and the elderly.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Ecological threats
While climate change is a gradual process that will be felt over the course of decades, it also increases the likelihood of relatively sudden disasters, from stronger hurricanes, deeper famines, or droughts. By 2035, the world will most likely be confronted by more natural disasters, and the political system will be required to adjust to them. Northern Europe will see greater flooding. Southern Europe will experience more frequent heatwaves. The international system will need to create a more robust system to protect climate refugees and migrants, who will grow as climate change increases the power of natural disasters and rapid urbanisation means that natural disasters will affect more people.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The riddle of work and income
The revolution of work has long been under discussion, and the industrial world is on the brink of the unknown. The rapid progress of technology that has led to digitisation, robotisation, artificial intelligence and automation is modifying almost all areas of known activity. However, there is currently no clarity as to what the revolution of work ultimately means. Public debate often addresses the significant diminishing of work and traditional workplaces while, on the other hand, welcoming the flourishing of new types of working methods and the creation of workplaces with the aid of new technologies.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
Democracy fatigued
In the West, the disintegration, or even a crisis, of democracy has been discussed for years. Turnout percentages and party memberships have steadily decreased. However, awareness of the crisis in discussions has not led to activities to reinforce democracy. Not even the financial crisis or the rise of populism have brought reforms. The game only changed in 2016. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU, the subversive election struggle in the United States and Donald Trump’s presidency, which defied all familiar political models, have encapsulated many of the problems with democracy that must be solved promptly. In order for democracy to work, it must be reinforced, new methods of operation must be found and there must be greater inclusion.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
The economy at a crossroads
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy has endured a long period of slow growth. Although there are many signs of recovery, and there has been significant growth in countries such as the USA and Germany, there are many reasons why this growth is vulnerable. Its vulnerability is related to features such as the poor growth of productivity in the West, an ageing population, uncertain prospects in China and the price of oil, which can easily affect the global economy. Even more importantly, the unsustainable use of natural resources and carbon dioxide emissions now enforce much stricter parameters for growth than in the past. Discussions on economics have often raised the question of why growth is an aspiration. Increasing attention has been paid to the fact that the economy should above all be a means to achieve other ends, such as the experience of well-being.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
The increasing datafication of our lives
From chatting to friends in a messaging app or buying a coffee, to tapping in and out with an Oyster card or streaming music, today almost everything we do leaves a trail of data breadcrumbs. And this increasing datafication of our world has led to an unprecedented explosion in data. Just in the average minute, Facebook receives 900,000 logins, more than 450,000 Tweets are posted, and 156 million emails and 15 million texts are sent. With numbers like that, it’s no wonder we’re essentially doubling the amount of data created in the world roughly every two years.
2017
9 Technology Mega Trends That Will Change The World In 2018
Forbes
The Internet of Things (IoT) and how everyday devices are becoming more ‘smart’
The IoT – which encompasses smart, connected products like smart phones and smart watches –is a major contributing factor in this exponential increase in data. That’s because all these smart devices are constantly gathering data, connecting to other devices and sharing that data – all without human intervention (your Fitbit synching data to your phone, for instance). Pretty much anything can be made smart these days. Our cars are becoming increasingly connected; by 2020, a quarter of a billion cars will be hooked up to the Internet. For our homes, there are obvious smart products like TVs, and less obvious ones, like yoga mats that track your Downward Dog. And, of course, many of us have voice-enabled personal assistants like Alexa – another example of an IoT device. That’s already a lot of devices, but the IoT is just getting started. IHS has predicted there’ll be 75 billion connected devices by 2020.
2017
9 Technology Mega Trends That Will Change The World In 2018
Forbes
Exponential growth in computing power is fueling massive tech advances
None of this incredible growth in data, nor the billions of IoT devices available, would be possible without the enormous leaps in computing power that we’ve made. Between 1975 and 2015, computing power doubled at a rate of every two years, before slowing to the current rate of approximately every two and a half years. But we’re reaching the limits of what traditional computing power can handle. Thankfully, on the horizon, we have quantum computing. Probably the most significant transformation of computing power ever, quantum computing will see computers become millions of times faster than they are right notch leaders are in a race to launch the first commercially viable quantum computer, capable of solving problems that today’s computers can’t handle. Capable, even, of solving problems that we can’t even imagine yet.
2017
9 Technology Mega Trends That Will Change The World In 2018
Forbes
The incredible rise of artificial intelligence (AI)
Computers are now able to learn in much the same way as we humans do, and this leap in AI capabilities has been made possible by the massive increases in data and computing power. It’s the incredible explosion in data that has allowed AI to advance so quickly over the last couple of years; the more data an AI system has, the quicker it can learn and the more accurate it becomes. This huge step forward in AI mean computers can now undertake more and more human tasks. In fact, it’s AI that allows computers to see (e.g. facial recognition software), read (e.g. analyzing social media messages), listen (e.g. Alexa standing by to answer your every command), speak (e.g. Alexa being able to answer you) and gauge our emotions (e.g. affective computing).
2017
9 Technology Mega Trends That Will Change The World In 2018
Forbes