Trends Identified
3D printing
3D printing is set to have potentially significant impacts on the logistics sector, driving more local production of goods and potentially reducing the transportation of intermediate goods across long distances. 4 According to Integracore, around 25 % of the freight, 41 % of the air cargo sector, and 37 % of the shipping sector may be at risk in the context of 3D printing. In estimating the implications for oil demand, there are data challenges related to the share that cargo makes up in the aviation and shipping sector respectively.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Autonomous vehicles
Autonomous driving is another area of significant disruption. Autonomous vehicles are already tested on the road, with a significant degree of automation built into the Tesla software. Autonomous driving could thus be associated with limited lock-in effect as vehicles simply receive ‘softwareupdates’ as the technology matures. The range of estimates on the impact of autonomous vehicles is wide, from rebound effects actually increasing oil demand to positive estimates suggesting up to a 40% efficiency gain across all road transport.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Ai in supply chains
Artificial intelligence will help significantly improve the efficiencies of supply chains, reducing waste both in the logistics chain itself, as well as in the nature of goods and services transported. Estimates suggest AI can help increase supply chain efficiencies by around 20-30%, 7 with commensurate effects in particular on the freight, air cargo, and shipping cargo sector.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Bio-plastics
Primarily driven by non-climate related environmental concerns, notably plastic trash in the ocean, biodegradable plastic is likely to make inroads as the technology develops, with potentially upward of 50% of plastics replaced by non- oil based alternatives by 2040, 8 including potentially with nanotechnology solutions.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Hologram
Holograms can help revolutionize business travel and by extension the consumption of oil. This is likely to –should it scale – impact business travel in particular. Given some travel constraints and the fact that the majority of air travel is either cargo or ‘private’, holograms are only expected to have a low single digit effect on air travel consumption, with no robust estimates to date on scale.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Hyperloop
The Hyperloop is designed to be an alternative technology to air travel, creating super high – speed on -ground travel connections, powered by electricity, across major industrial or population centers. Here too, estimates are missing, but high capital lock – in and long construction phases suggest limited penetration by 2040, even under an optimistic scenario, although hyperloops may come to play a more prominent role in the long - term.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Nanotechnology
Beyond its role in plastics, nanotechnology can also help accelerate fuel efficiency trends, through a combination of lowering the weight of vehicles and thus increasing efficiency, improving tire efficiency, and nanocatalysts that make fuel consumption more efficient.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Industry redefined
Is every industry now your industry? Industry — the concept and the reality — is being rede ned and reinvented. In the pre-internet era, the competencies, assets and knowledge necessary to participate in any given industry sector were unique and varied significantly from industry to industry. Hard and fast industry boundaries (and high barriers to entry) arose as a result. With digital innovation and other forces acting as solvents, industry boundaries are melting and disappearing.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY
Future of work
When machines become workers, what is the human role? When EY first wrote about the future of work in our 2016 Megatrends report, the topic was just starting to attract attention. Skeptics doubted predictions about massive disruptions of labor by AI and robots. Now, we are overwhelmed with analyses of the future of work from the mainstream press, business literature and consultants. Predictions that seemed distant two years ago are entering the real world — from the live- testing of autonomous ride-sharing in key cities to the opening of the world’s first fully automated retail outlet, the Amazon Go store in Seattle.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY
Super consumer
When humans are augmented by AI, who gains the most — consumers or brands? We expect the evolution and interplay of AI, machine learning, ever-present sensors, smart devices and new computing interfaces to take consumer empowerment to
a whole new level — giving rise to tomorrow’s super consumer. A little like the fictional superheroes of comic books, super consumers can be defined as those who embrace new technologies, such as AI, VR, wearables and robotics, to create smarter and more powerful extensions of themselves. Whether working, playing, eating, shopping, learning or pursuing healthier lifestyles, tomorrow’s super consumers will be augmented by technology (see Human augmentation) in the service of achieving more informed and rich experiences across these different categories of living.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY