Trends Identified
Ongoing globalization
Globalization will continue, with exports and FDI growing faster than GDP. The world's real GDP will grow by 4.0% p.a. to around USD 135 trillion by 2030, up from USD 62 trillion today. GDP growth will slow down compared to the past 20 years, when the increase was 5.3% p.a.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
BRIC: the new powerhouses
The economic growth of the BRIC countries up through 2030 is overwhelming. Their real GDP will grow by 7.9% p.a. over the next 20 years, much faster than over the past 20 years (5.6%). The BRIC countries will generate 36% of global GDP in 2030, compared to 18% today. China's annual real GDP growth rate will be the strongest at 9.0%, followed by India (8.4%), Brazil (5.5%) and Russia (5.3%). China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2026. India's will be one-quarter the size of the Chinese economy in 2030, accounting for 5.7% of the world's GDP. Brazil will overtake Japan in 2030
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Beyond BRIC
There are other countries besides BRIC that are capturing the world's interest because of their promising economic future, specifically the Next Eleven1) and the ASEAN Five2). We also look at the most economically attractive countries in Africa and South America in this section
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Energy
Both total demand for energy and energy prices will rise up to 2030. Oil will remain the most important resource, but will lose some significance to renewables. At current rates of production, the remaining lifetime of the various energy sources will be longest for coal (119 years), followed by gas (63 years) and oil (46 years). Conflicts over energy supplies are likely to rise, since these resources are highly concentrated in a small number of countries
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Water
Assuming average economic growth and no efficiency gains, annual global water requirements would grow by 53% from 4,500 billion m3 today to 6,900 billion m3 in 2030. Annual per capita water consumption will increase by 27% to 830 m3 in 2030, up from 651 m3 today. However, since accessible water is limited to 4,200 billion m3 per year (3,500 billion m3 of surface water and 700 billion m3 of ground water), there would be a shortfall of 2,700 billion m3 in 2030. This shortfall will be eliminated. The water shortage will drive water prices up, making major R&D investments in water technology profitable and necessary, which will in turn significantly reduce the amount of water wasted.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Other commodities
Demand for food will rise due to growing population and growing per capita food consumption. However, the growth rates in world agriculture1) will fall to 1.5% p.a. by 2030, compared to 2.1-2.3% p.a. over the past four decades. The world's food production is even threatened to fall by 2030 as a result of the projected changes in the ecosystem due to climate change. Agricultural efficiency is at risk due to water scarcity and limited sources of phosphate, an important component of mineral fertilizer. Conflicts will arise over the use of agricultural products as food or energy. Price will determine use
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Increasing CO2 emissions
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) have been the main driver of rising temperatures since the middle of the 20th century. The main GHG in the earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. CO2 is the most important GHG that can be directly influenced by humans. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are by far the greatest contributor of GHG emissions.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Global Warming
The average global temperature will rise 0.5-1.5 °C between now and 2030. Over the past 20 years, an overall temperature increase of 0.5 °C has been measured, with land temperatures rising about twice as fast as ocean temperatures. An increasing rate of warming has taken place especially over the past 25 years. During the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago, the average global temperature was 6 degrees lower than today. Even with relatively minor average temperature increases, the nature, frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods, droughts and heavy precipitation are expected to rise. Sea level will rise between 6 and 11 centimeters during the next 20 years. Two processes are at work: melting polar ice and the expansion of sea water as oceans get warmer, both a result of global warming
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Ecosystem at risk
Our ecosystem and its biodiversity are crucial to mankind in order to ensure food security, clean water, protection against extreme weather and provision of medicines. These benefits have been estimated to be worth between USD 21-72 trillion each year, a huge sum compared to the world GDP of USD 62 trillion in 2009.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Technology diffusion
The diffusion of technologies is closely related to income. It is both a critical determinant of income and a result of rising incomes. As the world economy grows and countries get richer, the diffusion of technologies accelerates. In turn, as diffusion of technologies increases, a country's productivity rises, resulting in even stronger economic growth. As the world's wealth will grow by 4.0% p.a. from a real GDP of USD 62 trillion today to USD 135 trillion in 2030, the spread of technology will likewise increase further in that period.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants