Trends Identified
The “perfect storm”
Sustainability is inherently about the long term. It requires the reconciliation of environmental, social and economic demands necessary for the sustained survival of humankind and other organisms on our planet. Above all, living sustainably means grappling with the “perfect storm” associated with the inseparability of water, food, energy and climate.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
It’s the green economy
Historical, carbon-intensive models of economic growth are unsustainable. Since the Industrial Revolution there has been a strong correlation of GDP per capita with CO emissions.77 The use of carbon has yielded extraordinary benefits and none of the now advanced economies would have developed without it, but the negative costs arising from the consequent climate change now pose
a rising threat.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Health
The past century has delivered remarkable advances in health, as is illustrated by the increase of 4.7 years (male) and 5.1 years (female) to the average global life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2010. However, translating public health knowledge into practice has been fragmented and fraught with difficulty. Whilst biomedical technology and capacity to enhance the quality of health care and prevention have improved significantly, access to health care remains vastly lopsided, with the poor and disadvantaged suffering a disproportionate burden of illness and disease.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Lifestyle choices, lifestyle diseases
The growing threat today is non-communicable diseases (NDC). Most are caused by preventable factors, including poor diet, obesity and inactivity. NDCs like diabetes, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic lung disease were responsible for 63 percent, or 36 million, of all global deaths in 2008. Described as the “invisible epidemic”,88 NCDs are now
the leading cause of death in the world.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Interconnected and infectious
Infectious diseases remain a significant threat, particularly in today’s highly mobile, interdependent and interconnected world. Risks anywhere can be threats everywhere. With around 40 new infectious diseases discovered in the past 40 years, of which SARS, HIV and different types of influenza are but three, the concern about further new pandemics is not a case of if but when.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Technology
A dramatic megatrend of the last half-century has been the pace of technological change. Computing power has been doubling almost every 18 months, virtually matching Gordon Moore’s 1965 observation. This appears likely to continue for at least the next decade or two,101 and will continue to revolutionise the way we lead our lives and the way societies are governed.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
The great leveller?
New information technologies are reaching the world’s poor much faster than food and toilets. A recent UN report suggested six billion people have access to mobile phones, while only 4.5 billion have access to working toilets. Technology offers great potential to enhance education opportunities, dramatically improve health outcomes, promote free speech and democracy, and offer greater access to global markets. The Internet is the key driver of global connectivity and opportunity, but different bandwidth speeds, limited access, and contrasting levels of openness can mean that
the Internet exacerbates rather than offsets inequality.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Double-edged sword
Whilst technological advances have revolutionised our lives, and offer profound possibilities for tackling challenges, they also maximise vulnerability.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Synthetic biology
Synthetic biology may be the least known and most “disruptive” of the technologies in this study. In essence, it is the application of engineering principles to biology. It draws on a number of existing technologies to design and construct new biological systems that produce useful products or serve useful purposes. Current so ware helps bio-engineers use a growing online library of “biobricks” to design new genetic functions. Biobricks can be assembled by robots, or digital DNA les can be sent to a DNA printer; in either case, the new DNA is inserted into a living cell. The technology is proving to be very efficient.
For example, when genetic engineering (which modifies only a few genes at a time) was used to develop
a yeast to produce precursors to the an malarial drug, artemisinin, it took 150 person-years of work and $25 million. Using biobricks, however, a lab of 12 people produced 12 biological systems of comparable complexity in 3 months. Working in this field is becoming easier for researchers at all levels.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Bioinformatics
Bioinformatics involves storing, analyzing, modeling and sharing large amounts of biological data. Current applications of bioinformatics include DNA barcoding, new bioproducts (such as Millennium Asparagus and biodiesel), modeling disease outbreaks and personal genomics. Our capacity to analyze large amounts of data and our ability to affect traits in plants, animals and humans will increase dramatically. Consider the potential of a widespread medical device costing under $1,000 that sequences your genome, connects to online databases, profiles your genetic history and future, highlights your risk profile, and identifies opportunities to mitigate risks. Bioinformatics holds the promise of tailoring medical and drug treatments to the individual through preventative medicine, using biomarkers to model adverse drug reactions, and helping to understand the complex interplay between genetics and environment. Bioinformatics will fundamentally change the way we think of health care systems.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada