Trends Identified
The end of scarcity
The world said humans were not meant to fly. Hundreds of years of human invention had been unable to make it work. But in a small bicycle-repair shop, two brothers with no government funding and only a basic education had a vision, and a will to invent. And in 1903, thanks to the determination of these two unsuspecting inventors, humans flew. The distance of the first human flight was 120 ft. Years later, one of the inventors of that breakthrough would marvel that the wingspan of modern airplanes was longer than the entire distance his first plane had flown. The potential of technology is limited only by our imagination, and our will. Abundance of water, food, clean air … peace: the end of scarcity in the supply of our basic needs is possible. Perhaps not by 2020, but it starts with the dream, the determination to turn dreams into reality, and the understanding of this truth, so well embodied in the invention and rapid evolution of human flight: that all things are possible.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Fewer fancy phones, more fulfilment
The world many of us live in is changing at an exciting pace. Innovations are generating new gadgets, more convenient services and greater opportunities. But many of these changes target a small percentage of the globe’s population. In the villages I’ve worked in, nobody has seen an iPhone or can download an app. However, there is tremendous room for entrepreneurs to adapt innovations intended for the wealthy to serve the world’s poor. Solar panels and LED lights, designed for sale in rich nations, are stimulating growth in commercial off-grid electrification in India and Africa. Mobile telecommunication is being used to facilitate financial inclusion in developing countries across the world. Once-expensive medical procedures can be done amazingly cheaply. Even the financial sector is innovating in order to reach the world’s poor; as well as investors looking for opportunities that not only help them increase their net worth but also improve the world. Better financing opportunities are opening up for social entrepreneurs who build businesses to serve the poor profitably. I see a slight but significant shift in innovation, that instead of producing fancier phones, we will create more fulfilling lives for people who have been mostly ignored to date.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Cheaper, more widespread solar power
By 2020, solar technologies could account for a significant portion of global power generation, helping economies and businesses guard against rising energy costs and the impact of climate change. However, finding opportunities to further reduce the cost of solar technologies will be key to unlocking this potential. Because polysilicon, the primary raw material used by solar module manufacturers, is the single largest cost in the solar supply chain, it represents the most significant opportunity for cost reduction. Over the next several years, new lower-cost methods of polysilicon production will commercialize, providing the solar industry with a more affordable source of raw material. In turn, these cost improvements will trickle down throughout the solar supply chain, accelerating the adoption of solar energy around the world and helping the industry realize its global potential.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Internet of things no longer about things
Just about every business will become an internet of things (IoT) business. The convergence of the digital and physical worlds makes this inevitable. When the products companies sell are connected 24/7/365, dynamic and ever-improving value can be delivered to customers throughout the product’s life cycle. This will become the norm. Therefore, launching a successful IoT business requires a fundamental shift, a transition from product-centric to service-centric business models. Companies looking to capitalize on IoT will become IoT service businesses. Operations dependent on one-time product sales will become obsolete as business value moves from products to the experiences they enable. This transformation will fundamentally change how businesses operate, interact with customers and make money. Those who recognize that the internet of things isn’t about things but about service will be positioned to meet these new customer demands, unlock new sources of revenue and thrive in this connected world.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
New cures from the bacteria that live in the human body
In life sciences, we’ll have greater understanding of the dynamics of how our microbiome – the tiny organisms, including bacteria, that live in the human body – influences multiple systems in our body, including our immune systems, metabolic processes and other areas. This will result in seminal discoveries related to a variety of conditions, including autoimmune diseases, pre-term birth and how our metabolism is regulated. Regenerative medicine approaches to creating new tissues and organs from progenitor cells will expand significantly. Finally, the long-awaited ability to employ precision medicine, providing specific treatments to a specific patients, will become much more common. The emergence of real-time diagnostics for complex diseases will mark the beginning of the end of their debilitating reign by 2020. The ability to monitor cancer, the dynamic immune system, intestinal flora and pre-diabetes in real-time will change the nature of medicine and usher in a new era of human health where wellness is protected versus illness treated. As a result, fundamental shifts in healthcare will occur, causing it to become largely preventative rather than fire-fighting. It’s far more productive and economical to stop a fire from happening in the first place than to rebuild something after the fire has taken its course. The amount of data available in the world is growing exponentially, and analyzing large data sets (so-called big data) is becoming key for market analysis and competition. Analytics will dramatically shift away from reporting and towards predictive and prescriptive practices, dramatically improving the ability of healthcare providers to help the ill and injured. Even more importantly, it will create the possibility for truly personalized healthcare by allowing providers to impact the biggest determinants of health, including behaviours, genetics and environmental factors.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The beginning of the end for cancer
The emergence of real-time diagnostics for complex diseases will mark the beginning of the end of their debilitating reign by 2020. The ability to monitor cancer, the dynamic immune system, intestinal flora and pre-diabetes in real-time will change the nature of medicine and usher in a new era of human health where wellness is protected versus illness treated. As a result, fundamental shifts in healthcare will occur, causing it to become largely preventative rather than fire-fighting. It’s far more productive and economical to stop a fire from happening in the first place than to rebuild something after the fire has taken its course. The amount of data available in the world is growing exponentially, and analyzing large data sets (so-called big data) is becoming key for market analysis and competition. Analytics will dramatically shift away from reporting and towards predictive and prescriptive practices, dramatically improving the ability of healthcare providers to help the ill and injured. Even more importantly, it will create the possibility for truly personalized healthcare by allowing providers to impact the biggest determinants of health, including behaviours, genetics and environmental factors.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Data-driven healthcare
Today, we are already at a turning point in our ability to 3D “bioprint” organ tissues, a process that involves depositing a “bio-ink” made of cells precisely in layers, resulting in a functional living human tissue for use in the lab. These tissues should be better predictors of drug function than animal models in many cases. In the long-term, this has the potential to pave the way to “printing” human organs, such as kidneys, livers and hearts. By 2020, our goal is to have the technology be broadly used by pharmaceutical companies, resulting in the identification of safer and better drug candidates and fewer failures in clinical trials.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Printable organs
We are on the verge of the “internet of everywhere”. It will be far more democratic: accessible to everyone, rich and poor. The excitement of the internet of things will be a small footnote in history as the internet of everywhere becomes our reality. Do you remember the old movie, Minority Report, with Tom Cruise? Ultra cheap, internet-enabled solar-powered screens that display in HDTV resolution will be on bus stops, in shopping centres, at tables in restaurants – all operating on a centralized advertising model. Gone are the days of the static acetate poster on the wall of a shopping mall. And finally, since these HD monitors have beacons, they will dynamically change content as your phone passes by, telling the monitor all your preferences.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The ‘internet of everywhere’
We have become dependent on mobile communications in our daily lives, but the dirty secret is that mobile networks around the globe are notoriously energy inefficient. In fact, we are stuck with outdated mobile network technology that basically performs as poorly as incandescent lightbulbs, with the result that 70% of the energy used is wasted as heat. By 2020, we predict that pioneering innovations in radio engineering will have a positive impact on the world’s economy, environment and quality of life. We even foresee a time when advances allow renewable energy to power the mobile industry, helping bridge the digital divide and extend communications to the 1.7 billion people living off-grid.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Renewables will power mobile networks
The skills gap is actually an information gap. The problem is not that workers are unskilled; it’s that workers don’t know what skills employers need. Technology is already disrupting existing jobs, and creating new jobs that never existed before. In fact, the top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010 did not even exist in 2004. Change is happening so rapidly that 65 percent of today’s grade school kids in the U.S. will end up at jobs that haven’t even been invented yet.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)