Trends Identified
The energy future is digital
Energy system of the future characterised by volatile wind and solar renewable energies. The IT and energy sectors are growing together. Only a combination of both will be able to reliably match the energy supply and demand at all times. The rapid cost degression in the storage technology, particularly for small and large battery banks, opens up the possibility of reliable energy supply at any time, finally even with a 100 per cent transfer to renewable energies.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The rise of Asia continues
The rise of Asia is not a new phenomenon; the rise of Japan and South Korea has been witnessed over the second half of the 20th century. The start of the new millennium saw another boom, with many Asian economies recording high growth rates that took their share of global GDP from 26% to 32% between 2000 and 2014. Our extended long-term forecasts suggest that Asia’s rise will continue up to 2050—not quite at the same pace, but by 2050 it will account for 53% of global GDP.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Global dominance of the top three economies
By 2030 the top three economies of the world will be the US, China and India. Such will be the growth of the two latter countries, in particular, that by 2050 they will each be richer than the next five (Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Brazil, and the UK) put together. This will represent a scale of wealth relative to the rest of the top ten that is unique in recorded history.
Given China’s and India’s economic might, they will take on a much bigger role in addressing global issues such as climate change, international security and global economic governance. In the medium term, this will require the world’s existing powers—notably the US—to let India, and especially China, play a greater role on the world stage and adapt international institutions to allow them to exert greater influence.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
A new era of global demographic decline
Global growth to 2050 is not expected to decline dramatically from its average historical levels. However, regional growth rates are expected to begin to decline across every region after 2030. Much of the global growth in recent decades has been driven by population growth. Long-term population estimates, however, reveal that growth in the global population is expected to see a dramatic decline from an average of 1.3% in the 1980-2014 period to 0.5% across the 2015-50 period. The slowdown in the growth rate of the global working-age population will be even starker, with a drop to 0.3% in the 2015-50 period, compared with an average growth rate of 1.7% in the 1980-2014 period.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Population growth will still bene t a few
The majority of countries in Africa and the Middle Eastern region will benefit from an increase in their working populations, which will be an advantage in sustaining higher growth rates in the forecast period.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
For most, population as a source of growth will need to be replaced
Most of Europe and East Asia, by contrast, is expected to see labour-force declines, representing a severe drag on growth. Japan will see the greatest decline of over one-quarter, from 66m to 47m; China and South Korea are also expected to experience a 17-18% contraction in their labour forces.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Collectively rich, individually not so rich
Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed economies, and as a result developing countries such as China and India are likely to overtake current global leaders such as the US, Japan and Western Europe, while other emerging markets, such as Indonesia and Mexico, will rank among the top ten economies at market exchanges rates by 2050, overtaking economies such as Italy and Russia. By contrast, in terms of income per capita, a measure of individual spending power, today’s advanced economies are likely to continue to dominate.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Climate change and planetary boundaries
As evidence mounts that the impacts of human-caused climate change are already upon us, the future of international development cannot be considered in isolation from the need to adapt. Furthermore the Earth’s natural systems are under enormous pressure, with huge consequences for the world’s most vulnerable people. As UNep’s 2012 Global Environment Outlook assessment concludes: “Scientific evidence shows that Earth systems are being pushed towards their bio-physical limits, with evidence that these limits are close and have in some cases been exceeded”.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Demographic shifts
The global population could reach 9.6 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. In 2000, for the first time, there were more people over the age of 60 in the world than children under five. By 2050, four-fifths of older people will live in developing countries, where 80% of them will have no regular income. Youth unemployment is also growing. In 2012, 15- to 24-year-olds made up 40% of the total unemployed population.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Urbanisation
Globally, more people live in urban than rural areas and this is expected to gather pace. But the urban transition is taking place at different rates in different parts of the world. By 2050 most northern regions are expected to be at least 84% urban. In contrast, even by 2050, Africa’s urban dwellers are projected to make up just 62% of its total, and Asia’s 65%. Even in Asia and Africa, though, rapid rural-to-urban shifts are taking place. Urbanisation is a key engine of economic growth, but with this comes the risks of social marginality, conflict and exploitation.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian