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Natural resource scarcity

Demographic pressures create food and water insecurity, and supplies of non-renewable natural resources including fossil fuels are depleting. Scarcity could push prices up, creating further hardship for those most in need. Notwithstanding the current low oil price, from 2000 to 2013 metal prices rose by 176%, energy prices by an average of 260% and food prices by 120%. Depending on political responses, this may drive humanitarian crises, population movements and a rise in protectionist or nationalist policies.

2015

Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs

The Guardian

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Geopolitical shifts

In 2012, the Brics countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa were reported as being responsible for more than 25% of the world’s GDP based on purchasing power parity and home to 40% of the global population. The axis of the world’s economic and geopolitical power has shifted – and will continue to shift – from west and north to east and south. Poverty patterns and distributions are changing alongside the wider geopolitical shifts, and donor policies are changing alongside them. Declining overseas development assistance to middle income countries and new donors entering the landscape are reshaping the nature of aid. Moreover, there is a risk that some growing political powers restrict the space for civil society action.

2015

Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs

The Guardian

view report

Processes of technological transformation and innovation

Technological innovation could have a very significant impact on the ability of people to meet their needs and to adapt to climate change. The world is becoming hyper-connected. Technological changes and the rapid diffusion of information and communications technologies, particularly among young people, have also broken down many of the old barriers between northern and southern publics. By 2030, it is estimated that 50% of the global population will have internet access. There is also growing appreciation of how technology links to human and environmental systems, escalating conflict or cooperation.

2015

Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs

The Guardian

view report

Inequality

Economic growth in at least 40 countries has helped to lift many hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It is important not to allow rising GDP per capita in middle-income countries mask remaining underlying challenges – including rising inequality, weak social protection, poor infrastructures (particularly in urban areas), environmental degradation, and rising citizen expectations. Already, according to an Oxfam report, 85 billionaires have the same wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population. In 2012, 71% of the world’s population was reported to live in nations where income inequality is increasing. As well as stifling economic growth, inequality has a significant negative impact upon health and educational outcomes as well as security.

2015

Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs

The Guardian

view report

Big data and analytics

In an Industry 4.0 context, the collection and comprehensive evaluation of data from many different sources—production equipment and systems as well as enterprise- and customer-management systems—will become standard to support real-time decision making.

2015