Trends Identified
The Importance of Influence
Military operations will focus on influencing people. Despite the unifying effect of globalisation, people from dissimilar cultures will continue to act and think differently, depending on their personal and group context. Hence, knowledge and understanding will be required of how people from different cultures think; what symbols, themes, messages, etiquette and practices are important; how systems of reciprocity or kinship function, and how these establish deep allegiances and social obligations. Relevant groups will include domestic audiences, key regional leaders and populations, coalition partners, diaspora communities and broader international opinion.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Characteristics of the Future Operational Environment
The individual environments will be interlinked and porous, especially with regard to influence and information.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Urbanisation
The global urban population began to exceed the rural population in 2006. By 2040, 65% of people are likely to live in urban areas, with the majority of growth in the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia.155 A considerable proportion of urban growth is likely to occur in shanty towns, with the number of slum dwellers doubling to around 2 billion by 2040. Rapid urbanisation is likely to lead to urban rather than rural insurgency.156 Mega-cities157 are likely to remain significant, containing around 10% of the global urban population. However, approximately 50% of urban dwellers are likely to live within urban areas of less than 500,000 people. These regions are likely to absorb nearly half the projected increase of the urban population and face the greatest shortfalls in infrastructure and service provision increasing the risk of environmental disasters.1
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
International Organised Crime
Although measurement is difficult, international illicit trade is estimated to account for around $1 trillion of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per annum. In addition, it is estimated that a further $1 trillion is extorted by organised crime and that between $0.6- 2.8 trillion is laundered annually. This can be compared to a global GDP of around $61 trillion and could make the value of global illicit trade around twice that of global military budgets.163,164 These large financial movements, which have been funded by illegal trading, fraud, arms trafficking, people smuggling, extortion, smuggling and the drugs trade will continue to distort the normal political and economic process. The reach of international criminal gangs stretches from the ungoverned spaces in the developing world through to the highly regulated and policed developed world. Corruption is endemic in many parts of the world, including developing and emerging economies and deters inward investment, business confidence and international trust.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Climate Change and Weak States
Weak states have limited capacity for governance, and many are unlikely to adapt to the environmental challenges of climate change.168 Weak states are likely to have youthful populations, large families and be dependant on rural production for their income. Extreme weather events and increasing temperature will exacerbate instability due to immediate shortages of food and water. Longer-term effects may include a degradation of agricultural land that increases internal and regional migration. Weak states will be insufficiently prosperous to procure alternative supplies through external markets. In addition, they often have poor human rights records and suffer endemic corruption which weakens governance and service provision, increasing the likelihood of recurring instability. As the severity and incidence of internal instability increases, exacerbated by climate change, long-term societal changes can occur, such as the creation of large numbers of orphaned children or the displacement of large ethnic or tribal groups.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Food and Water
By 2040, the global population is likely to increase to 8.8 billion requiring concomitant increases in the supply of food and water. Given that agriculture accounts for over 70% of global freshwater usage, the availability of food and water will be intimately related.181 Over 900 million people were undernourished in 2007. This represents a declining proportion of the global population, but in absolute terms is 80 million more than in 1990– 92, with the largest increases in Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa.182 Similarly, it is estimated that around 2.5 billion people live in regions suffering from water scarcity, predominantly in Africa, the Middle East, as well as Central and East Asia. Of these almost 900 million lack access to safe drinking water causing more than 5 million deaths per year. Fertiliser production is an energy intensive process, and the challenge, with a heavy reliance on science and technology, will be to produce more food on less land with less water, fertiliser and pesticides, while using less energy.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Minerals
Out to 2040, a range of new factors influencing availability and supplies of certain critical minerals will remain vulnerable to disruption. Demand for minerals is likely to continue to increase in response to population growth, continuing industrialisation and higher material prosperity. New discoveries allied to technological advances will provide sufficient reserves, such that accessibility, rather than availability, is the primary concern.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Economic Recession
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers there have been 5 global recessions in the last 30 years. Further global economic recessions will happen over the next 30 years, and governments are likely to respond to them with protectionist policies designed to shield their own economies and workforces. However, they are likely to temper the extent of such policies, to maintain the integrity of the international system for global trade and capital movements. In extremis, protectionist measures that cause the reversal of economic globalisation are possible.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Resurgence of Ideology
Religious belief will retain a significant influence on the vast majority of the global populace especially in the Americas, Africa and increasingly throughout Asia. Tension is likely between religious and secular groups. Strategic drivers such as economic recession, resource scarcity, social change and conflict are likely to contribute to the increasing significance of belief-based groups. Single issues may also emerge that divide opinion and forge identities, such as attitudes toward abortion, gender, the environment, religious law and the teaching of evolution.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Cyberspace
From a national defence perspective, a number of underlying themes emerge. Offensive cyberspace capabilities will be used to penetrate and attack electronic-rich systems, networks and infrastructure. Recognition of malign intent and attribution will often be difficult. As civilian and military environments become increasingly dependent on integrated networks, and with space-based assets exclusively relying on the electromagnetic spectrum to receive or transmit data, the impact of cyber-attacks is likely to range from incremental to catastrophic.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence