Trends Identified
Space
Space divides into 3 communities of users: civil space, commercial space and security space. Much of the hardware is shared and the space launch industry supports all sectors, often simultaneously. Civil space encompasses pure science, such as astronomy, scientific applications, such as climate monitoring, and most manned space flight. The majority of commercial users provide services to terrestrial consumers through Satellite Communications (SATCOM), including broadcasting and satellite-based information systems, predominantly Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) information. Security space incorporates military uses of PNT and SATCOM, state surveillance capabilities and uniquely military applications, such as nuclear detonation detection and missile launch warning. Space Situational Awareness (SSA), once principally the concern of security space users, is gaining importance in commercial space, as orbits become crowded and debris threat levels increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Ballistic Missile Defence
Over 5,000 missiles with ranges from tens of kilometres to several thousand kilometres are now distributed across more than 20 countries. Concerns regarding missile proliferation have prompted a re-evaluation of treaty constraints. Ballistic missile proliferation is likely to continue through indigenous development of missile technology by technically adept emerging powers, and the import and local adaptation of systems procured through international markets.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Novel Weapons
Out to 2040, the development and deployment of novel weapons is likely to become widespread. There is likely to be continuing demand for weapon systems to be tailored and adaptable, offering variable yields, detonation characteristics, degrees of precision coverage and reduced logistic burden. They will need the ability to defeat national strategic assets, infrastructure and forces in well-prepared defensive positions. This will often be in difficult terrain, such as the urban environment.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The great rebalancing
The coming decade will be the first in 200 years when emerging-market countries contribute more growth than the developed ones. This growth will not only create a wave of new middle-class consumers but also drive profound innovations in product design, market infrastructure, and value chains.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The productivity imperative
Developed-world economies will need to generate pronounced gains in productivity to power continued economic growth. The most dramatic innovations in the Western world are likely to be those that accelerate economic productivity.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The global grid
The global economy is growing ever more connected. Complex flows of capital, goods, information, and people are creating an interlinked network that spans geographies, social groups, and economies in ways that permit large-scale interactions at any moment. This expanding grid is seeding new business models and accelerating the pace of innovation. It also makes destabilizing cycles of volatility more likely.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
Pricing the planet
A collision is shaping up among the rising demand for resources, constrained supplies, and changing social attitudes toward environmental protection. The next decade will see an increased focus on resource productivity, the emergence of substantial clean-tech industries, and regulatory initiatives.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The market state
The often contradictory demands of driving economic growth and providing the necessary safety nets to maintain social stability have put governments under extraordinary pressure. Globalization applies additional heat: how will distinctly national entities govern in an increasingly globalized world?
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
Growth and risk management in emerging markets
Emerging markets, with populations that are young and growing, will increasingly become not only the focus of rising consumption and production but also major providers of capital, talent, and innovation. This will make it imperative for most companies to succeed in emerging markets. However, no more than 40 percent of executives at companies headquartered in developed economies expect a quarter or more of revenues over the next five years to come from emerging markets—and 10 percent expect none.
2010
Five forces reshaping the global economy: McKinsey Global Survey results
McKinsey
Labor productivity and talent management
Low birth rates and graying workforces in most developed economies will make it hard for them to achieve steady growth unless they continue to make sizable gains in labor productivity. A majority of all respondents, 62 percent, do expect moderate gains in the next five to ten years in developed economies, and another 13 percent expect the gains to be significant.
2010
Five forces reshaping the global economy: McKinsey Global Survey results
McKinsey