Trends Identified
Virtual Databases
Networks will undergo continual evolution of form not just scale. For example, incremental development of the ‘semantic web’ will occur, enabling machines to recognise, identify, capture, manipulate and interpret data with minimal or no human intervention. The semantic web, and associated technologies, will effectively create an integrated data store, with an unprecedented level of access that can be exploited by reasoning techniques to provide more sophisticated forms of analysis. The exploitation of these techniques may expose hitherto unseen patterns, interactions and associations, with potentially wide-ranging, unforeseen and unpredictable consequences. Sophisticated data-mining tools will include automatic data reduction/filtering along with automated algorithmic analysis to enable faster access to relevant information. Virtual Knowledge Bases will store knowledge extracted from traditional documents or messages within large meta-data (database) structures, and in logical formats that intelligent software can interpret. Virtual Knowledge Bases will provide: improved searching and alerts to stored information; the ability to answer questions across the whole knowledge store in near natural language form; and automated situation reports on demand and in response to events to enhance situational awareness.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
New Energy Technology
New sources of power generation will become commercially available and viable before 2040. Out to 2020, while advances may be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, the efficient use and management of power will increasingly be a key driver, particularly for the design of new devices. Hybridisation, along with fuel additives and smart design, will improve the energy efficiency of engines. Smart, conformal designs for low-power systems for efficient charge recovery, and the use of power scavenging techniques, will be examples of potential innovation. For short periods of operation, batteries are likely to remain the preferred power source; however, as energy demands increase, improved fuel cells adapted to suit the operating environment may become the preferred option for longer operations. Nonetheless, demand for traditional lithium-ion type batteries, will increase due to an increased uptake of hybrid and electric vehicles
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Radicalisation
Out to 2040, radicalisation will continue, driven by a range of complex factors, such as the gradual shift in political beliefs, individual and group grievances,35 and economic and social inequalities.36 Although the precise links between poverty and radicalisation remain unclear, poverty is likely to encourage radicalisation due to the grievances it generates and the long-term stresses it causes.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Health
By 2040, health will be recognised as a fundamental global issue. Acknowledgement that healthcare provision contributes to stability at local, national and global levels may lead to increased international investment in global health in order to reduce inequality and also provide positive opportunities for education and training. Such developments are unlikely to be rapid, but will be accelerated by high impact events, such as pandemics and episodes of mass migration.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Asian Meridian
The Asian Meridian is likely to be an economically successful region that sits at the intersection of the Chinese and Indian spheres of influence and is likely to be a region of geostrategic competition. It is the region from Hong Kong in the North, through South East Asia into Australia.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Frontier Disputes
Out to 2040, the position of international boundaries and frontiers is likely to be a source of tension. These tensions will either be between two opposing states, or, by an existing ethnic or nationalist group whose historic territories are divided by an international border. Most frontier disputes are settled amicably through legal arrangements. For example, in 2008 Russia and China settled a century old dispute regarding their Amur River border. However, other frontier disputes are less liable to be settled amicably, especially where ethnic differences are aggravated by inequality and also historical antagonism, and where access and ownership of scarce resources are involved.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Defence and Security
The decline in the incidence of inter- state war and the emergence of transnational threats, especially in the developed world, has resulted in greater political emphasis being placed on security rather than defence. Moreover, security has gradually evolved from the concepts of national and international security to the idea of human security.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Future of Deterrence
Out to 2040, discouraging conflict will be increasingly important, especially as the strategic balance of military power shifts away from the US to a more multi-polar distribution. Deterrence will remain a vital conflict prevention tool.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Characteristics of the Future Operational Environment
The individual environments will be interlinked and porous, especially with regard to influence and information.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Minerals
Out to 2040, a range of new factors influencing availability and supplies of certain critical minerals will remain vulnerable to disruption. Demand for minerals is likely to continue to increase in response to population growth, continuing industrialisation and higher material prosperity. New discoveries allied to technological advances will provide sufficient reserves, such that accessibility, rather than availability, is the primary concern.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence