Trends Identified
Technology and science: rapid, rapid change
The pace of technological and scientific innovation will increase. Computers will become smaller, faster, and cheaper, which means that more people, in both developed and developing countries, will be connected via the Internet. Mobile phone technology, now the dominant tool of communication in many regions, will reach close to global coverage in the coming generation.22 Technologies will become more than repositories of knowledge: they will be increasingly smarter, more autonomous, and more anthropomorphic, with voice- and gesture-based commands.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Uneven growth, increasing inequality
Technological development seems to portend a fundamental change in the relationship between productivity and employment, as shown in Figure 2. This means that the economy can grow without producing many jobs, a trend with particular import in those countries that still have a growing youth population – countries that tend to be at the bottom of the global power scale. In spite of the democratization of at least some forms of technology, there is little reason to expect decreasing inequality. Rather, trends of increasing economic inequality – particularly the growth of the very rich – are likely to continue. Economic growth will be driven by technology that has the potential to increase the power of large corporations. There will be more consolidation of large businesses: a trend well underway, as a quick glance at the airline or any other major industry will show. In wealthy countries, labour-intensive work will increasingly be outsourced to Asia and there will be more automation/robots in sectors where unskilled workers have traditionally found jobs, giving rise to a permanent underclass of unemployment.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing global patterns
At the international level, the relative power of Western liberal democracies will decline as they struggle to deal with both demographic and economic shifts, even as the power of other countries increases. While the trends seem clear that China’s power is rising while the US is declining as a hegemonic power, these are likely to develop over several generations. Power is slowly but clearly slipping from the Atlantic alliance to the Pacific region (although the differences within Asia are probably greater than those within the Atlantic region).
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing domestic determinants
As demonstrated most recently by the Arab Spring, however, the possibility of widespread changes in the relationship between the governing and the governed is likely. The era of dictators seems to be coming to an end – at least, of dictatorships as we know them – although it is still too early to tell. The power of social media, rising standards of living, increasing access to education, and urbanization will all drive citizens to demand more of their governments.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Climate change: more disasters
The likely trends over the next thirty years are for increases in the severity and intensity of sudden onset natural disasters, particularly those related to weather (storms, hurricanes, cyclones, flooding). These will increasingly affect urban populations, in part because there will simply be more people living in cities and in part because more people will be living on more marginal land. Climate change will also drive rural to urban migration.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Conflict: prolonged, simmering, and increasingly urban.
The first point to make about future trends in conflict is that it is likely that many of today’s simmering conflicts will continue to do so in the coming decades. Most conflict in the future is likely to be protracted, to be fought by armed groups for personal gain, and to be to be fought in cities. The lines are becoming more blurred between gangs, warlords, insurgents, child soldiers, paramilitary forces, and drug traffickers, all of whom will increasingly operate in urban environments. Finally, there is terrorism. As high-tech weapons become smaller, cheaper, and more widely available, they will be used by an even wider variety of groups than they are now.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
The end of the fossil era has begun
The successful global progress of renewable energies, the signal sent by the G7 states from Schloss Elmau in June 2015, the discussion started after the climate protection pledge in the USA and China on an effective global climate regime plus the decreasing use of coal in China and the USA and a spectacular drop in the price of oil since 2014 all lead to the question of whether the beginning of the end of the fossil age has already begun. Besides the reality of climate change, the drivers of this development are the increasingly volatile energy prices, particularly the above-mentioned drop in the price of oil, and a growing global awareness of the health effects of fossil energy generation, leading to growing regional protests.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future has already begun
The energy transition is a global reality. Photovoltaics and wind energy in particular have developed within a few years into new key energies for the 21st century. In 2013 more renewable energy power plants in terms of power generation capacity were set up worldwide than coal, gas and nuclear power plants put together. In terms of investment, the renewables sector is now significantly ahead of traditional energy technologies.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is renewable
The global progress of renewable energies is primarily a result of the almost unbelievable success in reducing the costs. Wind energy plants on land are still the most cost-effective technology for renewable power generation. But in Germany the costs for solar power have dropped by 80 per cent since 2005. Increasing numbers of economy and financial experts are basing their analyses on photovoltaics now becoming the most cost-effective technology for electricity generation in ever more regions of the world. Electricity from the sun and wind will expand its triumphal progress beyond the power sector into the areas of mobility and heating.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is decentralised
Energy generation from wind and sun but also from other renewable energy sources is decentralised. Instead of a few large power plants, in the energy system of the future millions of small plants will generate energy. Many of the stakeholders involved are both producers and consumers of power (prosumers). However, this does not mean that only small power plants will be left. The large systems and plants based on wind and solar power will probably retain their position in the new energy system. But in many poorer regions of the world which have an abundant supply of sun and wind, members of the public as prosumers could bene t long-term from decentralised renewable energy systems.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany