Trends Identified
Advances in Simulation
Advances in social science, behavioural science and mathematical modelling will combine, leading to more informed decision making. Advanced processing techniques and computational power will permit a more comprehensive level of modelling, potentially enabling more effective pattern recognition. This is likely to improve the identification, representation and explanation of systems and processes. As a result, simulation will become an increasingly powerful tool to aid policy and decision makers. Simulation will also blur the line between virtual and real environments.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Virtual Databases
Networks will undergo continual evolution of form not just scale. For example, incremental development of the ‘semantic web’ will occur, enabling machines to recognise, identify, capture, manipulate and interpret data with minimal or no human intervention. The semantic web, and associated technologies, will effectively create an integrated data store, with an unprecedented level of access that can be exploited by reasoning techniques to provide more sophisticated forms of analysis. The exploitation of these techniques may expose hitherto unseen patterns, interactions and associations, with potentially wide-ranging, unforeseen and unpredictable consequences. Sophisticated data-mining tools will include automatic data reduction/filtering along with automated algorithmic analysis to enable faster access to relevant information. Virtual Knowledge Bases will store knowledge extracted from traditional documents or messages within large meta-data (database) structures, and in logical formats that intelligent software can interpret. Virtual Knowledge Bases will provide: improved searching and alerts to stored information; the ability to answer questions across the whole knowledge store in near natural language form; and automated situation reports on demand and in response to events to enhance situational awareness.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Behavioural and Cognitive Science
It will be more difficult to quantify the direct application of advances in cognitive science than it is in nanotechnology or biotechnology. However, indications are that certain interdisciplinary advances, such as neuro-imaging technologies, may make the mapping of brain activity with behaviour more reliable. Modelling techniques are likely to become more powerful and increasingly capable of more accurately understanding the complexity of human behaviour and performance at various scales, and over different time constants.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Biotechnology
Biotechnology encompasses a wide range of issues entailing the biological modification of organisms and non-living materials to develop new properties, which have application in medicine, food science and agriculture, and industrial manufacturing. Developments in biotechnology are likely to be swift as indicated by the significant increase in global biotech revenues ($23 billion in 2000 to $50 billion in 2005) and the purchase by large pharmaceutical companies of ‘biotech’ firms in order to secure the most effective avenues for future drug development.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Advances in Material Science
The design and manufacture of materials at the molecular level will result in ‘designer’ materials, with in-built capabilities to sense and modify their behaviour or functionality, introducing a new manufacturing paradigm. Most advances are likely to occur where material science combines with, or adopts, principles employed with other innovative disciplines including electronics, nanotechnology and biology.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
New Energy Technology
New sources of power generation will become commercially available and viable before 2040. Out to 2020, while advances may be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, the efficient use and management of power will increasingly be a key driver, particularly for the design of new devices. Hybridisation, along with fuel additives and smart design, will improve the energy efficiency of engines. Smart, conformal designs for low-power systems for efficient charge recovery, and the use of power scavenging techniques, will be examples of potential innovation. For short periods of operation, batteries are likely to remain the preferred power source; however, as energy demands increase, improved fuel cells adapted to suit the operating environment may become the preferred option for longer operations. Nonetheless, demand for traditional lithium-ion type batteries, will increase due to an increased uptake of hybrid and electric vehicles
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology focuses on manipulating matter at the atomic and molecular scale, generally at less than 100 nanometres in size. At this size, and using other scientific disciplines, the characteristics of matter can be changed. This will create new and unique properties with profound and diverse applications. Advances in nanotechnology, at the interdisciplinary frontier where physics, chemistry and biology meet, will be a key enabler of technological advance, involving: new additives and coatings; materials and sensor development; and medical treatments and heath diagnosis.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Autonomous Systems and Robotics
As the information revolution continues, there will be a pervasive and dramatic growth in the role of unmanned, autonomous and intelligent systems. These systems will range in size from meshes of small sensors and personalised robots, which replicate human behaviour and appearance, to a cooperative plethora of intelligent networks or swarms of environmental-based platforms, with the power to act without human authorisation and direction.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Ethical and Regulatory Practices
In the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC), the lawfulness of an attack on a military objective must be kept under review during the planning stage and execution phase; attacks are cancelled or suspended where it is realised that a target is not a military objective, or that disproportionate collateral damage will result. While the desire to minimise military casualties will spur the further development of autonomous systems for a variety of tasks, involving risk to human life, the extent to which autonomous systems can meet the requirements of the LOAC will determine how widespread their use would become.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Radicalisation
Out to 2040, radicalisation will continue, driven by a range of complex factors, such as the gradual shift in political beliefs, individual and group grievances,35 and economic and social inequalities.36 Although the precise links between poverty and radicalisation remain unclear, poverty is likely to encourage radicalisation due to the grievances it generates and the long-term stresses it causes.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence