Trends Identified
Global Health
By 2040, health will be recognised as a fundamental global issue. Acknowledgement that healthcare provision contributes to stability at local, national and global levels may lead to increased international investment in global health in order to reduce inequality and also provide positive opportunities for education and training. Such developments are unlikely to be rapid, but will be accelerated by high impact events, such as pandemics and episodes of mass migration.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Asian Meridian
The Asian Meridian is likely to be an economically successful region that sits at the intersection of the Chinese and Indian spheres of influence and is likely to be a region of geostrategic competition. It is the region from Hong Kong in the North, through South East Asia into Australia.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Frontier Disputes
Out to 2040, the position of international boundaries and frontiers is likely to be a source of tension. These tensions will either be between two opposing states, or, by an existing ethnic or nationalist group whose historic territories are divided by an international border. Most frontier disputes are settled amicably through legal arrangements. For example, in 2008 Russia and China settled a century old dispute regarding their Amur River border. However, other frontier disputes are less liable to be settled amicably, especially where ethnic differences are aggravated by inequality and also historical antagonism, and where access and ownership of scarce resources are involved.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Defence and Security
The decline in the incidence of inter- state war and the emergence of transnational threats, especially in the developed world, has resulted in greater political emphasis being placed on security rather than defence. Moreover, security has gradually evolved from the concepts of national and international security to the idea of human security.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Future of Deterrence
Out to 2040, discouraging conflict will be increasingly important, especially as the strategic balance of military power shifts away from the US to a more multi-polar distribution. Deterrence will remain a vital conflict prevention tool.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Importance of Influence
Military operations will focus on influencing people. Despite the unifying effect of globalisation, people from dissimilar cultures will continue to act and think differently, depending on their personal and group context. Hence, knowledge and understanding will be required of how people from different cultures think; what symbols, themes, messages, etiquette and practices are important; how systems of reciprocity or kinship function, and how these establish deep allegiances and social obligations. Relevant groups will include domestic audiences, key regional leaders and populations, coalition partners, diaspora communities and broader international opinion.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Characteristics of the Future Operational Environment
The individual environments will be interlinked and porous, especially with regard to influence and information.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Urbanisation
The global urban population began to exceed the rural population in 2006. By 2040, 65% of people are likely to live in urban areas, with the majority of growth in the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia.155 A considerable proportion of urban growth is likely to occur in shanty towns, with the number of slum dwellers doubling to around 2 billion by 2040. Rapid urbanisation is likely to lead to urban rather than rural insurgency.156 Mega-cities157 are likely to remain significant, containing around 10% of the global urban population. However, approximately 50% of urban dwellers are likely to live within urban areas of less than 500,000 people. These regions are likely to absorb nearly half the projected increase of the urban population and face the greatest shortfalls in infrastructure and service provision increasing the risk of environmental disasters.1
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
International Organised Crime
Although measurement is difficult, international illicit trade is estimated to account for around $1 trillion of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per annum. In addition, it is estimated that a further $1 trillion is extorted by organised crime and that between $0.6- 2.8 trillion is laundered annually. This can be compared to a global GDP of around $61 trillion and could make the value of global illicit trade around twice that of global military budgets.163,164 These large financial movements, which have been funded by illegal trading, fraud, arms trafficking, people smuggling, extortion, smuggling and the drugs trade will continue to distort the normal political and economic process. The reach of international criminal gangs stretches from the ungoverned spaces in the developing world through to the highly regulated and policed developed world. Corruption is endemic in many parts of the world, including developing and emerging economies and deters inward investment, business confidence and international trust.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Climate Change and Weak States
Weak states have limited capacity for governance, and many are unlikely to adapt to the environmental challenges of climate change.168 Weak states are likely to have youthful populations, large families and be dependant on rural production for their income. Extreme weather events and increasing temperature will exacerbate instability due to immediate shortages of food and water. Longer-term effects may include a degradation of agricultural land that increases internal and regional migration. Weak states will be insufficiently prosperous to procure alternative supplies through external markets. In addition, they often have poor human rights records and suffer endemic corruption which weakens governance and service provision, increasing the likelihood of recurring instability. As the severity and incidence of internal instability increases, exacerbated by climate change, long-term societal changes can occur, such as the creation of large numbers of orphaned children or the displacement of large ethnic or tribal groups.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence