Trends Identified
The disruptive decade
The global economic outlook is certainly enough to test even the strongest enterprises. The eurozone is still mired in recession and the US economy is forecast to expand by just 2.2% this year.1The situation in some of the growth markets is also getting harder, as the slowdown in the BRIC economies demonstrates. While market conditions in many countries are still very difficult, CEOs are more positive about the prognosis than they were last year: 52% think the global economy will stay the same for the next 12 months and only 28% believe it will shrink. In 2012, by contrast, 48% were convinced the global economy would contract.But economic plateaux aren’t exactly grounds for cheer. That’s why short-term confidence about the prospects for revenue growth has continued falling (see Figure 1). CEOs in Western Europe are especially nervous. Only 22% feel very confident they can increase their company’s revenues in the coming 12 months, compared with 53% of CEOs in the Middle East and Latin America.
2013
16th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
What worries CEOs most?
Today’s CEOs are concerned about a wide range of potential and ongoing threats to their business growth prospects. These include catastrophic events, economic and policy threats and commercial threats.We asked CEOs about their organisation’s ability to cope with the potential impact of various disruptive scenarios. The majority thought their organisations would be negatively affected, with major social unrest being cause for the greatest concern (see Figure 3). Indeed, CEOs are far more concerned about this than they are about a slowdown in China, possibly because they’ve already factored the latter into their calculations.
2013
16th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
A three-pronged approach
So what are CEOs doing to make their organisations more resilient in this era of ‘stable instability’? Our survey shows that they’re taking three specific approaches:A) Targeting pockets of opportunity: CEOs are focusing on a few well-chosen initiatives, primarily in their existing markets, to stimulate organic growth. They’re more wary about entering new markets or engaging in mergers and acquisitions (M&As), and diluting their resources too much. B) Concentrating on the customer:CEOs are looking for new ways to stimulate demand and foster customer loyalty, such as capitalising on digital marketing platforms and involving customers in product/service development. But they’re also aiming to keep their R&D costs down and make the innovation process more efficient. C) Improving operational effectiveness:CEOs are balancing efficiency with agility. They’re trying to cut costs without cutting value or leaving their organisations exposed to external upheavals. They’re also delegating power more widely and collaborating with organisations to share resources and develop new offerings.
2013
16th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
It’s a question of trust
We’ve discussed what CEOs are doing to make their organisations more agile, more appealing and more profitable. To succeed in, and align, these three goals, CEOs know they’ll have to repair the bridges between business and society. CEOs also recognise the important role that business can play in addressing social challenges and improving national outcomes.
2013
16th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
The glass half-full
CEOs are more positive about the state of the global economy than they were last year. Twice as many think it will improve over the next 12 months (see Figure 1). Conversely, just 7% think it will deteriorate, compared with 28% in 2013. But there are marked regional differences in sentiment. Only a quarter of CEOs in Central and Eastern Europe believe the global economy is recovering, versus half of all CEOs in Western Europe and the Middle East. The optimism some CEOs display may therefore stem from relief that certain risks (such as the collapse of the eurozone) have been averted for now, rather than the conviction that things are really getting better. Moreover, CEOs are still cautious about whether greater global growth will translate into growth for their own companies. They’re slightly more hopeful about the short-term outlook (see Figure 1), but just as wary about opportunities over the next three years as they were 12 months ago.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
The global rebalancing act
CEOs are coming out of survival mode, but the search for growth is getting increasingly complicated as the global economy gradually rebalances itself. In 2012, the advanced economies were spluttering, while the emerging economies sizzled. In 2013, the picture became more nuanced. The advanced economies are mending, while some emerging economies are slowing down – and separating out in the process. By the third quarter of 2013, the US economy was already 4% bigger than it was in 2007, before the financial crisis was in full swing. The Japanese economy had also recovered all the ground it lost, although a listless performance in the second half of 2013 dented hopes that the eurozone had done likewise (see Figure 2). While the advanced economies are recovering, some of the emerging economies have been decelerating. The prospect of a shift in monetary policy in the US (which materialised in December 2013) and other advanced economies triggered substantial capital outflows from some emerging countries. These macroeconomic changes have revived interest in a number of the mature markets and exposed the weak spots in some of the emerging economies, as well as the extent to which they’re diverging.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Three trends that will transform business
So what does the future hold? CEOs told us they think three big trends will transform their businesses over the coming five years. Four- fifths of them identified technological advances such as the digital economy, social media, mobile devices and big data. More than half also pointed to demographic fluctuations and global shifts in economic power (see below).
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Creating value in totally new ways
The world has benefited from the development of more general-purpose technologies in the past century than in the previous four combined. Consumers are embracing these advances ever more rapidly. The telephone took 76 years to reach half of all US households. The smartphone reached the same level of penetration in less than a decade.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Developing tomorrow’s workforce
Demographic trends are having profound implications for the workplace. The global population is expanding; it will hit 8 billion in 2025. But this growth won’t be uniform, since declining fertility rates will hit some countries much harder than others. By 2020, the median age will be 43 in Europe, 38 in China and just 20 in Africa. The working-age population is, as a result, undergoing major geographic shifts. It’s still growing rapidly in countries like India, where nearly a million workers will swell the labour force every month for the next 20 years. But it’s already peaked in China and South Korea, and has been falling for more than a decade in Germany (see Figure 7). Urbanisation is causing further upheavals, with the number of city dwellers projected to rise by 72% over the next four decades. The concentration of people and resources in a compact area is a powerful combination. Cities currently generate about 80% of global economic output. 16 But uncontrolled urbanisation can also result in overcrowding, poverty and poor schooling – conditions that neither attract nor nurture talent. And it’s talent that’s the main engine of business growth. So one of the biggest issues CEOs face, as these huge demographic changes occur, is finding and securing the workforce of tomorrow – particularly the skilled labour they need to take their organisations forward.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Growth, but not as we know it
If 2014 taught us anything it’s that in our increasingly technology-led world, no industry, no company and no government, even, is immune from the effects of change. Take the global energy market, where breakthrough innovations continued to shake up the status quo. Or the corporate world, where a cyber security attack had international security and diplomacy ramifications. And what about that digital transport start up – barely four years old – challenging the entire global taxi industry’s business model and receiving an $18 billion valuation for its chutzpah..
2015
18th Annual global CEO survey
PWC