Trends Identified
Other commodities
Demand for food will rise due to growing population and growing per capita food consumption. However, the growth rates in world agriculture1) will fall to 1.5% p.a. by 2030, compared to 2.1-2.3% p.a. over the past four decades. The world's food production is even threatened to fall by 2030 as a result of the projected changes in the ecosystem due to climate change. Agricultural efficiency is at risk due to water scarcity and limited sources of phosphate, an important component of mineral fertilizer. Conflicts will arise over the use of agricultural products as food or energy. Price will determine use
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Increasing CO2 emissions
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) have been the main driver of rising temperatures since the middle of the 20th century. The main GHG in the earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. CO2 is the most important GHG that can be directly influenced by humans. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are by far the greatest contributor of GHG emissions.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Water
Assuming average economic growth and no efficiency gains, annual global water requirements would grow by 53% from 4,500 billion m3 today to 6,900 billion m3 in 2030. Annual per capita water consumption will increase by 27% to 830 m3 in 2030, up from 651 m3 today. However, since accessible water is limited to 4,200 billion m3 per year (3,500 billion m3 of surface water and 700 billion m3 of ground water), there would be a shortfall of 2,700 billion m3 in 2030. This shortfall will be eliminated. The water shortage will drive water prices up, making major R&D investments in water technology profitable and necessary, which will in turn significantly reduce the amount of water wasted.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Global Warming
The average global temperature will rise 0.5-1.5 °C between now and 2030. Over the past 20 years, an overall temperature increase of 0.5 °C has been measured, with land temperatures rising about twice as fast as ocean temperatures. An increasing rate of warming has taken place especially over the past 25 years. During the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago, the average global temperature was 6 degrees lower than today. Even with relatively minor average temperature increases, the nature, frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods, droughts and heavy precipitation are expected to rise. Sea level will rise between 6 and 11 centimeters during the next 20 years. Two processes are at work: melting polar ice and the expansion of sea water as oceans get warmer, both a result of global warming
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Ecosystem at risk
Our ecosystem and its biodiversity are crucial to mankind in order to ensure food security, clean water, protection against extreme weather and provision of medicines. These benefits have been estimated to be worth between USD 21-72 trillion each year, a huge sum compared to the world GDP of USD 62 trillion in 2009.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Technology diffusion
The diffusion of technologies is closely related to income. It is both a critical determinant of income and a result of rising incomes. As the world economy grows and countries get richer, the diffusion of technologies accelerates. In turn, as diffusion of technologies increases, a country's productivity rises, resulting in even stronger economic growth. As the world's wealth will grow by 4.0% p.a. from a real GDP of USD 62 trillion today to USD 135 trillion in 2030, the spread of technology will likewise increase further in that period.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Power of innovation
The basic innovations of the next 20 years are not easily predicted and there is no consensus of what to expect in 2030. For example, Vernor Vinge, a pioneer in Artificial Intelligence (A.I.), predicts that A.I. will surpass human intelligence after 2020, whereas THE FUTURIST puts the date in 2032. Predictions about future innovations are always risky – they may fail to materialize or do so at a different time – if and when they come true, they will dramatically change and dominate our lives. Therefore, we need to look at those potential changes
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
The age of life sciences
The innovative potential of biotechnology will increase by 2030 through convergence with other sciences, such as nanotechnology and ICT. Tremendous progress is expected in biotechnology, including new products and services such as regenerative cell therapies, more resistant crops and food with greater nutritional value and improved taste.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Know-how base
Performance of the global knowledge society will improve over the next twenty years. The cross-linking of knowledge via the Internet will increase significantly up to 2030. Some experts predict that Internet users will consume an average of 3 gigabytes of data per day by 2030. The Internet could already have 5 billion users by 2020, about 2.9 billion more than today. The build-up of knowledge networks in the Internet has already increased significantly to date. For example, since the online encyclopedia Wikipedia was launched in 2001, the number of English articles has risen to over 3.5 million (as of the beginning of 2011).
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Gender gap
The gender gaps in education and employment will continue to narrow up to 2030. There will be hardly any difference between men and women in primary education in 2030. By 2030, differences in secondary education will have fallen moderately, with 48% of men and 40% of women completing secondary education. In 2000, only 42% of men and only 32% of women over the age of 15 have had 9 or 10 years of formal education.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants