Trends Identified
When China changes, everything changes
The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, the world’s largest energy consumer.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
The shale revolution in the United States is turning to exports
The resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States, cementing its position as the biggest oil and gas producer in the world even at lower prices.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Global economic growth has rebounded and is expected to remain stable but low
Global economic growth increased to 3.6 per cent in 2017, after hitting a six-year low of 3.2 per cent in 2016. The recovery was broad based, driven by expansions in developing, emerging and developed countries alike. Future growth is likely to stay below 4 per cent, as economic activity normalizes in most major economies without signi cant stimulus and fixed investment remains at a moderate level.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Global unemployment remains elevated at more than 190 million
The latest developments in global unemployment are also mixed. According to the ILO’s new estimation, based on improved data sets and methodologies, the global unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 5.5 per cent in 2018 (from 5.6 per cent in 2017), marking a turnaround after three years of rising unemployment rates. However, with a growing number of people entering the labour market to seek employment, the total number of unemployed is expected to remain stable in 2018, above 192 million. In 2019, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain essentially unchanged, whereas the number of unemployed is projected to grow by 1.3 million.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Vulnerable employment is on the rise
With these improvements in employment projected to be modest, the number of workers in vulnerable forms of employment (own-account workers and contributing family workers) is likely to increase in the years to come. Globally, the significant progress achieved in the past in reducing vulnerable employment has essentially stalled since 2012. In 2017, around 42 per cent of workers (or 1.4 billion) worldwide are estimated to be in vulnerable forms of employment, while this share is expected to remain particularly high in developing and emerging countries, at above 76 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively. Worryingly, the current projection suggests that the trend is set to reverse, with the number of people in vulnerable employment projected to increase by 17 million per year in 2018 and 2019.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
The pace of working poverty reduction is slowing
Similarly, the global labour market has seen only weak progress in the area of working poverty. In 2017, extreme working poverty remained widespread, with more than 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries having a per capita household income or consumption of less than US$1.90 (PPP) per day. Overall, progress in reducing working poverty is too slow to keep pace with the growing labour force in developing countries, where the number of people in extreme working poverty is expected to exceed 114 million in 2018, or 40 per cent of all employed people.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Significant variations in employment outcomes continue to exist between regions and countries
The world continues to experience diverse trends in employment outcomes. Developed countries are expected to enter their sixth consecutive year of decreasing unemployment rates, falling to 5.5 per cent in 2018, the lowest rate since 2007. Yet many countries continue to report high rates of labour underutilization, with large shares of discouraged workers and growing incidence of involuntary part- time employment.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Inequalities in labour market outcomes persist
Underlying these aggregate labour market and social trends are disparities across a number of demographic groups. Gender disparities are of particular concern. On average, women are less likely to participate in the labour market, facing a global gender gap in participation of over 26 percentage points, and are less likely to find a job when they do participate. These gaps are particularly wide in Northern Africa and the Arab States, where women are twice as likely to be unemployed as men. Once in employment, women face segregation in terms of the sector, occupation and type of employment relationship, resulting in restricted access to quality employment. For instance, 82 per cent of women in developing countries are in vulnerable forms of employment in 2017, compared to 72 per cent of men.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Looking ahead, the projected structural shifts to the service sector could create complex pressures on job quality
Internal and external forces, such as technological progress, capital accumulation, globalization, demo- graphics and government policies, are expected to continue to spur the reallocation of employment across sectors of production. Across all income groups, an ever-increasing number of workers are projected to be employed in the service sector, while the employment share in agriculture is set to con- tinue its long-term downward trend. Furthermore, the share of manufacturing employment is expected to continue its decline in upper middle-income and developed countries, and to grow only marginally in lower middle-income ones. This confirms the ongoing trend of “premature deindustrialization”, whereby lower-income countries are seeing declining shares of industrial employment at earlier stages of development compared to developed countries.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
An ageing population will add further pressure to future labour market challenges
As a result of rising life expectancy and declining birth rates, global population growth has considerably decelerated and this trajectory is expected to continue over the next few decades. One immediate implication of this slowdown is that growth of the global labour force will not be sufficient to compensate for the rapidly expanding pool of retirees, putting pressure on both the pension system and the labour market as a whole. In developed countries, where population ageing is considerably faster, it is estimated that, by 2030, there will be close to five persons aged 65 and over for every ten persons in the labour force, up from 3.5 in 2017.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)