Trends Identified
People and behaviour: we move in mysterious ways
The notion that individuals are gradually becoming significant drivers of change has been widely reported, particularly in the popular media. In 2006, Time magazine elected ‘You’ (the individual) as person of the year – before the boom in social media and before the Arab Spring revolts, more recent events that reinforce the perception that people, their beliefs and behaviours may increasingly interact with the international and EU landscape. On the one hand, the use of ICTs for censorship in certain states and declining participation level in Western elections suggests that the keynote of this development is divergence. On the other hand, there is a commonly stated expectation that globalisation acts as an integrative and harmonising force and that we should witness a convergence of values affecting how people think and behave as a result. The emergence of a common ethos would influence some of the themes we discussed earlier, including the identity and values of the middle class, declining fertility levels, the diffusion and the use of technologies and migration flows. Yet, the evidence also points to potential divergence in values, as embodied by grassroots populist movements, online activism focusing on specific causes and political or religious extremisms.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Gender equality: a pervading driver of change?
As a cross-cutting driver, gender is affecting several income groups and societies, particularly insofar as inequality is concerned. While each could be seen as an outcome of other societal developments (eg economic growth, value changes), there are several developments that could be seen as driving closure of the gender gap, for example, women’s growing involvement in politics, increasing educational attainment and labour market participation. Attitudes towards gender equality itself are likely to affect several policy areas in the future, owing to their relation with a variety of unpredictable factors such as fertility levels, migration flows and individual empowerment. For example, according to the EUISS, gender equality is one of the main drivers behind individual empowerment and the emergence of the global middle class, through the near-universal access to education and the empowering effects of ICT (EUISS, 2012).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Birth and death: the drivers of demography
The way in which individuals organise at a societal, community or household level – fragmented along dimensions of gender, age, ethnicity or citizenship – are likely to trigger an evolution in how policies are carried out in the future. Demographic change, which is both a cause and a consequence of these evolving organisations and structures, therefore forms a cross-cutting issue. It is thought to be driven by many actors, including medical progress, sanitation, pandemics or conflict and economic conditions, as well as policy levers (Bongaarts, 2009a; Bongaarts, 2009b).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Urbanisation: bigger, better, faster – dirtier, unhealthier, lonelier
As we suggested in section 2.4., populations are becoming increasingly urban. It is argued that the new middle classes are increasingly residing in a large pool of emerging cities that will represent half of global GDP growth and a quarter of the world’s population by 2025.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Technology and media: enabling growth, facilitating inequality?
It is tempting to overstate the influence of technological change on the evolving landscape of the European Union in the long and short term. Yet, technological change is possible only to the extent that individuals and societies understand, accept and absorb technology, or contribute to its development in a variety of ways (ITU, 2011; World Bank, 2012; OECD, 2012a; Perez, 2010). Without this human factor, which ranges from tolerance to adherence, technological change in itself would be close to irrelevant, as past human fears and rejections of new technologies – especially during periods of industrial revolution – suggest. However, the benefit of technological change should be weighed carefully, since the phenomenon is both an enabler and a facilitator of greater ambitions and an accelerator of inequalities between the high- and low-skilled (see Cave et al., 2009; Facer and Sandford, 2012). To this extent, technological change is perhaps one of the most illustrative examples of a cross-cutting issue with uncertain consequences, as it impacts labour, economic growth and other technologies, sometimes in twoway relationships. For instance, in the relationship between labour markets and technology creation, does the latter enable the former or vice versa? The impact of technology on issues ranging from education to skills or demand for political change will depend to a large extent to the adoption of technology. This is likely to be a major driver for change, insofar as future inequalities are projected to revolve around the ability to reap the benefit of technological change for capacity building (in terms of skills, literacy, etc).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Economic recovery: from double-dip recession towards sustained slow growth?
In this period of economic crisis, tensions and distortions, it is often suggested that while short-term measures can alleviate the worst effects of the downturn, economic growth will be the long-term solution to many of the issues currently faced by both developed and emerging countries. As a result, several factors will interact with economic growth to play a significant role in enabling – or hindering – economic recovery. In the longer run, the key question lies in determining the possible transformative effects of economic growth, or lack of it, on the EU landscape.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Barriers to connectedness: wired but disconnected?
There is evidence that the financial crisis has led to a slowdown of globalisation, connectedness and economic integration. According to the DHL Global Connectedness Index 2012, the global connectedness of the world today is than it was in 2007 and still has to reach pre-crisis levels, with capital connectedness declining and service trades remaining stagnant since 2007 (Ghemawat and Altman, 2012). There is additional evidence that suggests that financial deepening (the expansion of financial markets and banking systems) and globalisation (as measured by financial integration and cross-border capital flows) have stalled as a result of the crisis (McKinsey Global Institute, 2013).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Identity
Every citizen, resident and business needs to have an identity to access government services and participate in society and the economy. While this seems simple, the process is often complicated and in many contexts can be controversial. Governments are conceiving of new ways of providing identities to individuals though biometrics and emerging technologies such as blockchain. They are also helping businesses make better decisions about their brand identities in an increasingly competitive marketplace, and helping citizens demonstrate the unique combination of knowledge, skills and experiences that make up their own personal identities. In the modern interconnected world, governments and individuals are also raising questions about national identity and re-imagining what it means to be a citizen in an increasingly borderless world. Government innovators are exploring these many aspects of identity and pursuing initiatives that serve as essential building blocks of innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD
System approaches
The complexities of today’s problems require systemic change rather than simple, incremental responses. Technology, environmental challenges and citizens’ dissatisfaction with “business as usual” are all putting pressure on governments to change their working methods and reach beyond simple solutions and linear equations of cause and effect. This marks an innovative paradigm shift in governance. Rather than layering interventions on top of one another, the public sector should repack policies in ways that allow them to get to the real purpose of change and deliver value to citizens. Human wants, needs and desires are complex, and the systems created to satisfy them are even more so. If simple models are used to analyse them, they will produce simple answers. As human lives and the problems that affect them are intertwined, innovative working methods are needed that take this complexity into account and provide solutions that actually work. One way to address these challenges is to apply a more systemic approach to innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD
Inclusiveness and vulnerable populations
In the face of migration and ageing populations, uncertainties about the future of work and job automation, and continued gender and economic inequalities despite decades of attempted reforms, world governments are turning to innovation to help create more inclusive societies where no one is left behind – especially those who are most vulnerable. Many countries have rallied behind global initiatives such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), while some have acted on their own initiative when confronted with unexpected threats to the well-being of their people. The last few years have seen record levels of people displaced from their homes due to violence and conflict and environmental factors such as climate change, as well as global waves of nationalism that limit the ability of these migrants to integrate well into their new communities. The same period has witnessed targeted gender-inclusion initiatives and a reckoning for gender-based mistreatment, as well as continued disparities in pay and political inclusion. Other major issues are visible on the horizon, such as ageing populations and the displacement of jobs through automation. The world is at a crossroads with governments challenged to acknowledge new realities and create new solutions through innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD