Trends Identified
Transport: 'There will be more automated cars'
It's not difficult to predict how our transport infrastructure will look in 25 years' time – it can take decades to construct a high-speed rail line or a motorway, so we know now what's in store. But there will be radical changes in how we think about transport. The technology of information and communication networks is changing rapidly and internet and mobile developments are helping make our journeys more seamless. Queues at St Pancras station or Heathrow airport when the infrastructure can't cope for whatever reason should become a thing of the past, but these challenges, while they might appear trivial, are significant because it's not easy to organise large-scale information systems. The instinct to travel is innate within us, but we will have to do it in a more carbonefficient way. It's hard to be precise, but I think we'll be cycling and walking more; in crowded urban areas we may see travelators – which we see in airports already – and more scooters. There will be more automated cars, like the ones Google has recently been testing. These driverless cars will be safer, but when accidents do happen, they may be on the scale of airline disasters. Personal jetpacks will, I think, remain a niche choice.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Health: 'We'll feel less healthy'
Health systems are generally quite conservative. That's why the more radical forecasts of the recent past haven't quite materialised. Contrary to past predictions, we don't carry smart cards packed with health data; most treatments aren't genetically tailored; and health tourism to Bangalore remains low. But for all that, health is set to undergo a slow but steady revolution. Life expectancy is rising about three months each year, but we'll feel less healthy, partly because we'll be more aware of the many things that are, or could be, going wrong, and partly because more of us will be living with a long-term condition. We'll spend more on health but also want stronger action to influence health. The US Congressional Budget Office forecasts that US health spending will rise from 17% of the economy today to 25% in 2025 and 49% in 2082. Their forecasts may be designed to shock but they contain an important grain of truth. Spending on health and jobs in health is bound to grow.Some of that spending will go on the problems of prosperity – obesity, alcohol consumption and injuries from extreme sports. Currently fashionable ideas of "nudge" will have turned out to be far too weak to change behaviours. Instead, we'll be more in the realms of "shove" and "push", with cities trying to reshape whole environments to encourage people to walk and cycle. By 2030, mental health may at last be treated on a par with physical health. Medicine may have found smart drugs for some conditions but the biggest impact may be achieved from lower-tech actions, such as meditation in schools or brain gyms for pensioners. Healthcare will look more like education. Your GP will prescribe you a short course on managing your diabetes or heart condition, and when you get home there'll be an e-tutor to help you and a vast array of information about your condition. Almost every serious observer of health systems believes that the great general hospitals are already anachronistic, but because hospitals are where so much of the power lies, and so much of the public attachment, it would be a brave forecaster who suggested their imminent demise.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Religion: 'Secularists will flatter to deceive'
Over the next two and a half decades, it is quite possible that those Brits who follow a religion will continue both to fall in number and also become more orthodox or fundamentalist. Similarly, organised religions will increasingly work together to counter what they see as greater threats to their interests – creeping agnosticism and secularity. Another 10 years of failure by the Anglican church to face down the African-led traditionalists over women bishops and gay clerics could open the question of disestablishment of the Church of England. The country's politicians, including an increasingly gay-friendly Tory party, may find it difficult to see how state institutions can continue to be associated with an image of sexism and homophobia. I predict an increase in debate around the tension between a secular agenda which says it is merely seeking to remove religious privilege, end discrimination and separate church and state, and organised orthodox religion which counterclaims that this would amount to driving religious voices from the public square. Despite two of the three party leaders being professed atheists, the secular tendency in this country still flatters to deceive. There is, at present, no organised, nonreligious, rationalist movement. In contrast, the forces of organised religion are better resourced, more organised and more politically influential than ever before.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Theatre: 'Cuts could force a new political fringe'
The theatre will weather the recent cuts. Some companies will close and the repertoire of others will be safe and cautious; the art form will emerge robust in a decade or so. The cuts may force more young people outside the existing structures back to an unsubsidised fringe and this may breed different types of work that will challenge the subsidised sector. Student marches will become more frequent and this mobilisation may breed a more politicised generation of theatre artists. We will see old forms from the 1960s reemerge (like agit prop) and new forms will be generated to communicate ideology and politics. More women will emerge as directors, writers and producers. This change is already visible at the flagship subsidised house, the National Theatre, where the repertoire for bigger theatres like the Lyttelton already includes directors like Marianne Elliott and Josie Rourke, and soon the Cottesloe will start to embrace the younger generation – Polly Findlay and Lyndsey Turner.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Storytelling: 'Eventually there'll be a Twitter classic'
Are you reading fewer books? I am and reading books is sort of my job. It's just that with the multifarious delights of the internet, spending 20 hours in the company of one writer and one story needs motivation. It's worth doing, of course; like exercise, its benefits are many and its pleasures great. And yet everyone I know is doing it less. And I can't see that that trend will reverse. That's the bad news. Twenty-five years from now, we'll be reading fewer books for pleasure. But authors shouldn't fret too much; e-readers will make it easier to impulse-buy books at 4am even if we never read past the first 100 pages. And stories aren't becoming less popular – they're everywhere, from adverts to webcomics to fictional tweets – we're only beginning to explore the exciting possibilities of web-native literature, stories that really exploit the fractal, hypertextual way we use the internet. My guess is that, in 2035, stories will be ubiquitous. There'll be a tube-based soap opera to tune your iPod to during your commute, a tale (incorporating on-sale brands) to enjoy via augmented reality in the supermarket. Your employer will bribe you with stories to focus on your job. Most won't be great, but then most of everything isn't great – and eventually there'll be a Twitter-based classic.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Growing in complicated times
Today’s CEOs face a business environment that’s becoming increasingly complicated to read and adapt to. Seven years on from the global financial crisis, the business landscape still hasn’t really returned to what it was. Will it ever? Last year regulation, skills, national debt, geopolitical uncertainty and taxes topped CEOs’ list of concerns about threats to business growth. None of these have gone away this year. In fact, the level of worry is higher today than at any point in the past five years. Concern about over-regulation in particular is still highest, cited by 79% of CEOs – making it the fourth year in a row that it’s risen (see Figure 1). Geopolitical uncertainty, meanwhile, has become the second biggest concern, cited by 74% of business leaders. This comes at a time when terror attacks are increasing and touching every part of the world, many linked to the heightened conflict in Iraq and Syria. Global conflicts are also connected to anxieties about social instability and readiness to respond to crises, named by 65% and 61% of CEOs, respectively. Cyber security is also a worry for 61% of CEOs, representing as it does threats to both national and commercial interests.
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Addressing greater expectations
As technology and other factors create an environment of higher transparency, CEOs have set their radar on a wide range of stakeholders. Customers remain the top priority, with 90% of CEOs indicating they have a high or very high impact on their business strategy (see Figure 6). But government and regulators come in second (cited by 69% of CEOs). That’s higher than industry competitors and peers (67%) and no doubt reflects CEOs’ enduring concerns about over-regulation in the marketplace. The views of these and other stakeholders, including employees and investors, aren’t just evolving but diverging, as CEOs have told us. Customer behaviour, in particular, has become more complicated as values and buying preferences evolve. The three biggest trends CEOs see as most influencing those views – technological advances, demographic changes and global economic shifts – as well as the interactions between them, are only going to continue to drive change (see Figure B, Looking for more data?, page 34).
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Transforming: technology, innovation and talent
It’s evident that most businesses today, in defining what they stand for, recognise the needs of a wider set of stakeholders – and their customers’ expectations about how they address those needs. Translating a broader corporate purpose into the everyday, however, is another matter entirely. Even the most committed can find it challenging in the extreme to reshape their company while facing day-to-day battles on every front to fight off competition, grow revenues and cut costs. Putting technology to work: business leaders understand all too well how technology is transforming their relationship with customers as well as other stakeholders. So it makes sense that they see technology as the best way to assess and deliver on changing customer expectations, with 51% of CEOs making significant changes in this area (see Figure 11). The innovation edge Over half of CEOs ranked R&D and innovation technologies as generating the greatest return in terms of successful stakeholder engagement (see Figure 12). The winners in the innovation game, however, will be those that harness technology and innovation to deliver products and services that are cost-effective, convenient, functional and sustainable. The people edge As companies look to meet the complicated expectations of stakeholders and society, they will need a new generation of people with an entrepreneurial mindset who can harness technology and drive innovation.
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Measuring and communicating success
In a complex and rapidly changing world, we were interested in understanding which areas CEOs want to better measure and which areas they want to better communicate to the multiple stakeholders who interact with their organisations. We found that the key metrics CEOs would like to improve are the ones traditionally seen as ‘harder’ drivers of business success like innovation and risks, while the areas they want to better communicate are emotional, ‘softer’ issues around values and purpose (see Figure 15). But customers are seeking information about both the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ drivers of business success. Indeed, real-time dashboards created and managed by users themselves are becoming feasible, raising expectations for more fresh and relevant information and ways of viewing it. Ultimately the CEO must deal with matters of the head and the heart, the rational and the emotional. Our research suggests that there is much room to improve on both the assessment and communication of key business areas, including of course, core financial data.
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Navigating complexity to exceed expectations
Technological progress, shifting demographics, urban expansion, the rise of emerging markets and a changing planet are moving the world beyond globalisation to a multi-polar reality. As this happens CEOs are learning that much of their success depends on sensing and addressing the rapidly changing values and expectations of their many stakeholders.
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC