Trends Identified
3D-printing technologies
3D-printing technologies have been around for quite a long time and have been successfully applied in several industries. Thus, without their use, the activities of many leading companies in terms of creating mock-ups, models and prototypes of units, assemblies, products, buildings and structures would not be possible. Future improvements in 3D printing should be considered in the context of global developments in processing devices with computer numerical control (CNC) and in expanding their use among end users (creation of home and public Fab Labs). The future of such additive technologies is linked to the development of new production principles, the creation of new materials with increased functional characteristics (strength, rigidity, etc.) and reduction in costs.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Algorithms and software for knowledge engineering
There has been some development of algorithms and software for knowledge engineering at the juncture of learning system and cognitive psychology theories and research on artificial intelligence. Knowledge engineering extends concepts that were previously – in research on artificial intelligence – only applicable to computers (machine learning) to any learning system (where learning is understood to mean the acquisition and transformation of knowledge with a view to its application). New models for working with large amounts of memory (including semantic databases) are becoming increasingly abundant.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Algorithms and software to verify large programmes
The development of algorithms and software to verify large programmes for cloud and grid- based applications is one of the key fields of research and development in ICT. In the medium term, progress in software development technologies will set down a path of improving methods to verify industrial hardware and software systems. Theoretical bases for algorithms allowing for effective verification have already been developed and tested. In the foreseeable future, these methods will become part of the technology cycle of companies which create programmes for critical applications. In a number of cases verification technologies are relevant not only for major software systems, but also to reduce the time take to develop various medium-complexity applications where reliability is a particularly high requirement (built-in computer technologies for on-board control systems in space and military equipment, medical equipment, mobile telephones, etc.).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
5th generation of mobile technology (5G)
The transition to the 5th generation of mobile technology (5G) will lead, according to experts, to a 100–1000 increase in data transmission speeds and throughput efficiency compared to 4G technologies used today. Noticeable improvements in other technical characteristics are expected, such as in coverage area, number of simultaneous connections, cost of expansion and power consumption of infrastructure, energy costs on subscriber’s device, and reliability and flexibility of connection. Despite the fact that the commercialisation of 5G technology is anticipated for 2020–2025 (shown by the dynamics of mobile communications in the last 20 years), corresponding standards and long-term programmes for research in the field are actively being developed now at international, national and corporate levels.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Modelling and forecasting ICT services.
The model adequacy and query response time are key characteristics of modelling and fore- casting ICT services. Mathematical and computer models based on the results of field and/or computer experiments applying predictive modelling concepts are “trained” based on multiple prototypes of input and output data and essentially simulate both sources to receive data and the models themselves, created on the basis of studies of the physics of corresponding processes. Using such approaches (“metamodelling”), it is possible to speed up calculations manyfold, all the while reducing the number of expensive field or computer experiments. In turn, this should lead to a drastic reduction in the timeframes and cost of design, improvements in the quality of engineered products, simplified use of such services and, as a result, a reduction in the need for qualified users. The use of such modelling to calculate the optical properties of metamaterials with complex geometries used in difficult-to-reproduce conditions makes it possible to optimise metamaterials and minimise production costs, which will lead to a transformation of the market for materials with new properties.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Products and services to guarantee quality of life
Growth in the market for products and services to guarantee quality of life will be linked to the emergence of specialist portals (both for various professional groups and for the population at large), as well as the development of continuous monitoring systems for important human physiological parameters based on mobile solutions. In terms of bioinformation technologies, the most in demand will be the results of innovative development at the juncture of micro-, nano- and biotechnologies, including algorithms and software to reveal the base mechanisms at work in the brain and memory and integrated systems to prevent health risks.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Resource-based services for distributed and parallel computing (metacomputing)
Resource-based services for distributed and parallel computing (metacomputing) allow the use of supercomputers to significantly increase the effectiveness of scientific research, as well as to increase the competitiveness of products across numerous sectors of the economy. Key directions in the development of metacomputing include grid-algorithms and software for distributed solutions to complex computing tasks; and algorithms and software to develop, verify and test large programmes. With the growth in demand for metacomputing services standard mechanisms will be developed for internal regulation of this services market and quality metrics will be created for these services which will make it possible to form business models for interaction between providers and consumers of the services. In the field of material production, thanks to e-science metacomputing services there will be a fall in the entry threshold for start-up companies onto knowledge-intensive product markets (microelectronics, pharmaceuticals, new material design, bioengineering). The development of this product group requires entirely new methods to solve the problems of energy consumption, component times between failures and the parallelism of the further movement towards increasing the real performance of metacomputing hardware platforms.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
“Internet of Things”
The concept of the development and communication of physical objects, referred to as the “Internet of Things”, appeared in the late 1990s. Its main idea was to fit as many objects as possible with interaction technology, creating a self-organising network of devices (objects) capable of working together to address these challenges and respond to changes in the environment. Such organisation of things (devices, objects) can restructure the corresponding economic and social processes and significantly reduce human involvement in these processes. The increase in the number of devices able to access the Internet, the growth in high-speed wireless networks, the development of machine interaction technologies and new types of sensors, the dissemination of cloud-based solutions and the start of the transition of client devices to IPv6 are all contributing to this. To realise the launch potential of the “Internet of Things” in terms of simple identification of objects in production processes, there needs to be a transformation in business processes in the majority of economic sectors.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Augmented reality technologies
Augmented reality technologies will be used as a basis for the creation of devices, which allow people to adapt the ways in which they interact with their environment through entirely new interfaces. A classic example of this concept is Google Goggles, which allows users to download information from the Internet on objects in their environment in real time. The most likely next step in the development of these technologies will be the appearance of special contact lenses imperceptible to others and able to transmit any information required from a variety of sources (including the Internet) to the user directly onto the retina of the eye. Thus, in terms of augmented reality the ways in which people socialise and perceive their surrounding environment could radically change, which in turn will bring about significant socio-economic effects.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Digital devices with replication and self-healing properties
Digital devices with replication and self-healing properties will become an integral part of the human environment in the long-term. A self-replenishing structure can produce copies of itself with equivalent functional properties. At present, one of the promising ways to solve this problem of self-replication and self-healing on a macro-level is layer-by-layer (additive) 3D-printing technology. To restore protective coatings and electronic circuits polymer capsules with carbon nanotubes are being developed which make it possible to reconstruct membranous constructions or conducting bridges if their integrity is violated. On a micro-level, the development of technologies and devices capable of self-replication, replication of external objects and self-healing will be inextricably linked to breakthrough achievements in nanotechnology, with the greatest impact in this regard coming from the development of molecular self-assembly technologies.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation