Trends Identified
High capacity electrochemical batteries
Electrochemical batteries to store electricity (accumulators) have seen widespread use in many sectors, primarily for mobile devices and on transport, as well as in stationary units – to provide an uninterrupted supply to important devices (communications, computer equipment, etc.). High capacity electrochemical batteries, used in the energy sector for relatively long-term storage of electricity, could play an important role in distributed generation systems to provide an operational reserve and stabilise the electrophysical parameters of local power systems, including regulating the frequency and voltage. The use of next-generation electrochemical batteries will make it possible to increase the competitiveness of renewable energy sources and to practically implement the distributed generation concept – increasing the load and efficiency of traditional electricity generation units through the opportunity to store energy, increasing the quality of the electricity supply to end consumers, reducing electricity loss in the power grids, cutting development and operating costs for trunk power lines, storing electricity and creating an operational power reserve directly at consumers’ location.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
“smart” networks, including micro-networks
The development of “smart” networks, including micro-networks, is aimed at reducing the cost of electricity and creating power reserves directly at end consumers’ location. The result of further improvements to this technology should be an increase in the reliability and security of power supplies, higher levels of technological processes’ computerization, the introduction of digital technologies and microprocessor equipment into monitoring and control systems, and reductions in operating costs. Demand for these technologies and equipment in Russia is relatively high, due to the need for large-scale renovation of Russia’s electrical energy sector. The growth in global demand for electrical equipment also creates high export potential.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Closed nuclear fuel cycle with fast neutron reactors
One of the limitations for modern nuclear energy with an open nuclear fuel cycle and thermal neutron reactors is the significant and ever growing amount of stored irradiated nuclear fuel. Moreover, these technologies do not make it fully possible to use the energy stored in nuclear energy resources, as more than 90% of extracted uranium remains in enrichment plant heaps, and the effectiveness of the fuel’s use in hot water reactors is low. An integrated solution to existing problems is possible by concentrating efforts and resources to develop next- generation nuclear energy based on fast neutron reactors with a closed nuclear fuel cycle. This is a set of connected technological solutions, capable of guaranteeing extended reproduction of fissile nuclear material together with generating electricity while minimizing radioactive load on the environment across all technological conversion stages and, thus, having a revolutionary impact on the global nuclear energy market. A further benefit of the closed nuclear fuel cycle is the ability to use fast neutron reactors to solve the historically inherited problem of accumulating nuclear waste. This innovative technology is fundamentally different from existing ones due to the lack of the two key expensive technological conversion processes – uranium extraction and enrichment – and the existence of a technologically new conversion process – the multifold refabrication of the nuclear fuel which is combined with the immobilisation and final isolation of the high-level radioactive waste.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Applied superconductivity
One of the most promising innovative directions to increase energy efficiency is applied superconductivity technology, namely the integrated development and establishment of production of a wide range of electro-technical equipment based on the latest technologies with the use of unique materials – high-temperature superconductors. In the commercial energy sector, the use of superconductors is particularly attractive in terms of creating cables and power engineering and electricity storage (inductive capacitors). Superconductive cables, on account of their extremely low energy loss, are able to display a higher level of energy-efficiency in networks, creating fundamentally new conditions to manage generation facilities and to export electricity. Superconductive energy storage technologies will smooth out peak loads and align voltage and current, offsetting electricity supply in the event of network incidents, which will make it possible to negate the varying nature of alternative generation. Electro-technical equipment and power units based on superconductivity are designed to increase efficiency on rail and sea transport, in the energy sector, in the oil and gas industry, in the manufacturing sector, and others. Maximum results can be obtained by combining these with smart grid technologies. Russian developments in high-temperature superconductors are at various stages, from basic research to operational testing of prototypes of various forms of superconductor equipment. Forecasts of the Russian superconductor electrical equipment market are very optimistic and reflect its high potential and opportunities for long term growth. It is expected that the production volumes of various types of equipment (storage (5–20 MJ), current limiters (3–35 kW), generators (5–35 MW), electric motors (5–35 MW), synchronous compensators (5–35 MW), cables (1 km, 20 kW, 2 kA), transformers, etc.) will account for 36.5 billion roubles by 2020.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Cloud computing
Cloud computing is a major technology leap that can give to public organisations, companies and SMEs virtually unlimited access to computing power without substantial capital investments in local IT infrastructure or advanced in-house ICT skills. Cloud computing can bring substantial advantages in particular as regards productivity growth as well as bring the tools needed for the digital revolution.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
High performance computing
Solving complex problems– societal, scientific, industrial- needs trillions of calculations which cannot be done without High Performance Computing (HPC). Some of the examples are: integrated policy assessment, understanding and solving a wide range of problems in life sciences and health, materials research, fusion energy, aircraft fuel efficiency, reduction of aircraft noise, weight reduction of cars, safer transportation, climate and weather prediction, earth observation etc. HPC is of paramount importance for European competitiveness, and nearly every industrial sector depends on supercomputing to be competitive.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Text and Data mining
ICT technologies are getting better at processing large volumes of unstructured or non-uniform data and text. New techniques, learned on data sets in life sciences and drug discovery, are being applied in particular in social sciences, humanities, security, business, marketing and legal areas. Text and data mining (TDM) refers to the different tools, techniques and technologies for the automated processing of the large volumes of information available in order to obtain new knowledge and insights and discover patterns and trends. While its importance is growing with the increasing large amounts of data stored in corporate data warehouses and databases, realising the full economic and societal potential afforded by this vast sea of information will require new technologies, processes and business models.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Advanced autonomous systems
Advanced autonomous systems are on the rise: Algorithmic trading with no human in the loop already accounts for around 50% of all stock-market trading, and some parts of the car manufacturing process have automation levels of above 90%. These systems will gain more capabilities in the future enabling their widespread use in many market domains. While these systems make a strong contribution to productivity and can perform jobs which are dull, dirty and dangerous for humans, there is a danger of them eliminating a large number of jobs in a relatively short time frame. In addition, they pose a challenge for established legal concepts such as liability.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Models and data in decision-making
We will have ever more accurate description and models of many technical and natural phenomena; we might even have better models of human activity (behavioural models and data). We will have an ever increasing range of data on all aspects of policy and societal decisions. Citizens will be ever more involved in decisions processes in society, redefining the role of experts and even policy makers. We need to analyse opportunities and pitfalls from these developments in time. The ultimate use of models will most likely be as tools for orientation rather than as tools for prediction.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Cyber security
Shopping media, and publishing, but also democratic processes such as elections, are moving online. This can only work with a high level of trust. Furthermore, the same holds for many future sectorial infrastructures, processes, and resources, like sewage systems or smart buildings, that will be adaptive, distributed, collaborative, and efficiently controlled. They will depend on ICT and cloud infrastructure and services that must be reliable, predictable and always available, ensuring confidentiality and protection of privacy and being capable to react to cyber threats in real time.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)