Trends Identified
Next-generation biofuels
Efficient technologies to generate biofuels (including motor fuels) will save non-renewable supplies of fossil hydrocarbons, allowing for a significant expansion in the current resource base of the economy, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and, ultimately, a reduction in the negative impact of the energy sector on the planet’s climate. The main developmental directions in bioenergy technologies are increases in the energy efficiency of bio-conversion of carbon dioxide gas into motor fuel, reductions in the cost of biofuels, an expanded raw materials base for biofuels (for example, the development of technologies to convert lignocellulose into biofuel), and improvements in quality (stability, environmental cleanliness).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation carrier rockets
Next-generation carrier rockets making wide use of new polymer composite materials (composite proportions 20% higher than in the Proton-M rocket) will have better characteristics compared with existing counterparts by almost twofold. A distinguishing feature of these carrier rockets will be modularity. Such a construction concept firstly helps to simplify delivery of a ready-made product to the launch site by rail transport; secondly, it makes it possible to create a whole family of carrier rockets – from light (based on a single first stage module) launching a ground payload of 1.5 tons into low-earth orbit, to very heavy (up to 50 tons). With the introduction of such systems it will be possible to place payloads of over 50 tons into an orbit of 200 km, which increases the opportunities for space tourism allows to use modular carrier rockets to launch spacecraft to the Moon or nearby planets in the Solar System, and they could even be adapted for the development of deep space. One expected production benefit is linked to economies of scale: modular systems make it possible to move from modern small-scale or even individual production of rocket modules to medium-scale output.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation genomics
Fast, low-cost gene sequencing, advanced big data analytics, and synthetic biology (“writing” DNA)
2013
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
McKinsey
Next-generation orbital stations
The creation of next-generation orbital stations is a breakthrough innovation in this field and could make it possible to manufacture special materials, microchips and nanostructures on industrial scales in space. The development of space (orbital) groups, including by creating new space instruments and improving existing rockets and stations and the expansion of ground-based infrastructure, including the creation of new and improved existing cosmodromes, control centres and communications, have already started to take shape. Next-gene- ration orbital stations will have greater levels of energy efficiency, comfort and safety. Moreover, the operating principles of orbital “factories” and automated research complexes will be developed, and foundations for the construction of robotic methods to carry out orbital operations and technical servicing in automated and adaptive modes will be established to provide automated docking technologies and to bring together the modules of a multi- functional orbital complex.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation purification systems
New generation purification systems are based on nanotechnologies in water purification membranes. The availability of technology will lead in the long-term to solving the problem of drinking water shortages in a number of world regions and improving the effectiveness of closed loop water processes in industry with prospects for optimising the sizes and increasing the mobility of existing treatment complexes.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation robotics
The popular imagination has long foreseen a world where robots take over all manner of everyday tasks.This robotic future has stubbornly refused to materialize, however, with robots still limited to factory assembly lines and other controlled tasks. Although heavily used (in the automotive industry, for instance) these robots are large and dangerous to human co-workers; they have to be separated by safety cages. Advances in robotics technology are making human-machine collaboration an everyday reality. Better and cheaper sensors make a robot more able to understand and respond to its environment. Robot bodies are becoming more adaptive and flexible, with designers taking inspiration from the extraordinary flexibility and dexterity of complex biological structures, such as the human hand. And robots are becoming more connected, benefiting from the cloud-computing revolution by being able to access instructions and information remotely, rather than having to be programmed as a fully autonomous unit. The new age of robotics takes these machines away from the big manufacturing assembly lines, and into a wide variety of tasks. Using GPS technology, just like smartphones, robots are beginning to be used in precision agriculture for weed control and harvesting. In Japan, robots are being trialled in nursing roles: they help patients out of bed and support stroke victims in regaining control of their limbs. Smaller and more dextrous robots, such as Dexter Bot, Baxter and LBR iiwa, are designed to be easily programmable and to handle manufacturing tasks that are laborious or uncomfortable for human workers. Indeed, robots are ideal for tasks that are too repetitive or dangerous for humans to undertake, and can work 24 hours a day at a lower cost than human workers. In reality, new-generation robotic machines are likely to collaborate with humans rather than replace them. Even considering advances in design and artificial intelligence, human involvement and oversight will remain essential. There remains the risk that robots may displace human workers from jobs, although previous generations of automation have tended to lead to higher productivity and growth with benefits throughout the economy. Decades-old fears of networked robots running out of control may become more salient with next generation robotics linked into the web – but more likely familiarisation as people employ domestic robots to do household chores will reduce fears rather than fan them. And new research into social robots – that know how to collaborate and build working alliances with humans – means that a future where robots and humans work together, each to do what it does best – is a strong likelihood. Nevertheless, however, the next generation of robotics poses novel questions for fields from philosophy to anthropology about the human relationship to machines.
2015
Top 10 emerging technologies of 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Next-generation telecommunications services based on space systems
The development of next-generation telecommunications services based on space systems holds special importance for our country in view of its colossal territory. In this field the development of new space vehicles and infrastructure is directed at providing consumers with accessible and quality communications services by increasing the speeds of data transfer, providing higher positioning accuracy and more opportunities for the use of positioning in difficult-to-access terrain. In the future, satellite communications systems and television signal broadcasting will be in demand throughout Russian territory. The development of this field will provide an increase in data transfer volumes and multimedia content, including between satellites, by shifting to transmission frequencies up to 100 GHz.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
No Clear Path to Post-Western Order
A United States-led global system was premised on a politically and economically dominant West. Financial regionalization will eat away at the central role of the Anglo-Saxon financial model. The challenge will be to establish a new world order that maintains a modicum of cooperation despite values gaps.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
No End in Sight of Middle East Instability
Iraq and Syria are unlikely to be put back together. difficult reform efforts in Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are potentially destabilizing in the short term. Radical Islam and terrorism are not decreasing. A nuclear Iran remains an open question as Sunni-Shia tensions continue to escalate.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
No Rights Left
Amid a new phase of strong-state politics and deepening domestic polarization, it becomes easier for governments to sacrifice individual protections to collective stability. This already happens widely: lip service is paid to human rights that are breached at home or abroad when it suits states’ interests. What if even lip service goes by the wayside, and human rights are dismissed as anachronisms that weaken the state at a time of growing threats? In authoritarian countries with weak human rights records, the impact of such a tipping point might be one of degree—more rights breached. In some democratic countries, qualitative change would be more likely—a jolt towards an illiberalism in which power-holders determine whose rights get protected, and in which individuals on the losing side of elections risk censorship, detention or violence as “enemies of the people”. Battles are already under way among major powers at the UN over the future of the human rights system. In a multipolar world of divergent fundamental values, building far-reaching consensus in this area may be close to impossible. “Universal” rights are likely to be interpreted locally, and those interpretations then fought over globally. Even superficial changes might be of modest help, such as new language that is less politicized than “human rights”.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)