Trends Identified

Satellites down

In August 2016, a 1-cm-wide man-made object collided with the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel 1A satellite, creating a 40-cm crater and a change in orbit. As more and more satellites are launched, the risks of space debris disabling satellites and disrupting navigation and communication systems will rise. Indeed, roughly one in ten functioning satellites in the Earth’s orbit had experienced collisions like that of the Sentinel 1A. The frequency of such collisions is rapidly increasing; it is predicted that over the next two decades, the average time interval between collisions could shrink from 10 years to just five.

2017

Foresigth

Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures

Scarcity

Economic growth means the use of scarce natural resources. If people become richer they will use up more energy, water and food, and create more waste. Technological advances often also lead to increased consumption, as well as to new challenges (rebound effect). The much acclaimed introduction of biodiesel, for instance, led to an undesired decrease in farmland used for food production. There is an end to our natural resources. Many of these resources are found in areas that are politically unstable. The rise of the BRIC1 and MINT2 countries (and probably other nations in the future as well) and the corresponding growing prosperity have increased the demand for natural resources considerably, creating an additional problem for countries consuming the most.

2014

Horizon scan 2050

Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)

Scarcity

Scarcity the unsustainable consumption of our natural resources.Middle class angst: Propelled by growth, urbanization, and a concentration of wealth, a global middle class has emerged with varying sets of values and needs. This group still faces significant barriers in the way of economic resources and a result of wealth inequities, and a pervasive frustration has emerged with the social status quo. Innovation: Scarcity is a tale often told which results in negative consequences but in the case of technology, the scarcity of resources is prompting new and innovative ways of managing, saving, and in some cases creating new resources to mitigate growing challenges. Innovation prizes are offered to teams who can come up with unique solutions to societal challenges (e.g., Water XPRIZE). Sustainability: The limitation of natural resources has led to a significant focus on environmental sustainability, resulting in the rise of new markets, an active lobbyist and political base, and renewed efforts in social responsibility. “Going green” has become a business strategy, and new players specifically targeting environmental concerns have risen in prominence. Consumer watchdog groups such as Greenpeace continue to lobby for change. Qualitative growth: In a market-driven economy, growth is often synonymous with progress and high performance. However, unbridled growth over the past several decades has placed a high toll on our resources and capacity, necessitating more efficient and quality-oriented means of production in order to sustain current levels of consumption. Wealth distribution: As families continue to pull themselves out of the global recession, the stark truth remains that the socioeconomic order has tilted further towards inequity as 1% of the population is now as rich as the rest of the world combined. As the rich have grown richer and the poor have grown poorer, a new global middle class has emerged with a new set of values and priorities which now dictate political discourse. Politicians’ platforms globally contain policies and proposals to affect the inequities in wealth.

2017

Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World

Deloitte

Scarcity of resources

Population and GDP growth, urbanization, and a growing global middle class lead to an increasing demand for energy. Continued development in non-OECD countries is expected to increase demand by 29% between now and 2030, mostly concentrated in Asia, and particularly China and India. In 2030, like today, most energy will come from fossil fuels. A continued reliance on fossil fuels is tempting, but it also risks accelerating climate change. Despite the dominance of fossil fuels, the sun remains a vast, mostly untapped energy source, delivering more than 1,300 times the Earth's daily energy consumption to land each day. Water and food also stand to become increasingly scarce—we predict global water demand to rise 32% by 2050, driven mostly by the growing manufacturing and electricity sectors. Scarcity of water is already widespread, however, and even today many European countries face low resources per capita. By 2050, over 50% of the world's population will live in water-stressed areas. Demand for food will also increase 43% by 2050, mostly driven by population growth and changing eating habits. A final area of scarcity is critical raw materials. China is the major supplier of these materials, which include rare earth elements and metals. Demand for these raw materials will grow depending on the supply situation. The main challenge associated with these shortages is one of regional imbalance: most critical raw materials are produced outside of Europe, and conflict over these resources could arise between developed and developing countries.

2017

Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Science for everyone

A basic education in science can now be gained through Wikipedia alone. A more advanced education is available on YouTube. Whole fields, including much of physics, publish new research online. The open-data movement delivers the raw material of science to anyone who wants it. Crowdsourcing platforms are changing the way science is done, from online collaborations between top-class mathematicians to distributed-computing platforms that allow anybody to comb data and make discoveries. Meanwhile, scientists are realising that a crucial part of the job is communicating their ideas—and their excitement—to the public. As access to knowledge becomes universal, it may kindle the desire for more.

2016

World in 2017

The Economist

Science for sale in a global market place

The global free-market economy reigns and intense levels of interaction occur between economic agents across national borders. Thousands of multinational companies constitute powerful international players and drive the ever-faster pace of globalization. New scientific discoveries and technological developments have created whole new industries that power economic development in advanced and a few rapidly emerging economies. Countries have increasingly specialized in supplying only certain products to global markets, but still compete intensely for the investments of foot-loose capitalism. These investments include R&D facilities and funding, which are much more widely dispersed across advanced and emerging economies than in previous times.

2011

ICSU Foresight Analysis

International Council for Science (ICSU)

Science for the energy transition

The EU is defining a new set of energy policies that will shape the evolution of energy systems and markets towards 2030 and 2050, potentially transforming society in many ways. The 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy policies foresees a new European Governance Framework for integrating the plans, interests and concerns of all public and private actors.

2015

Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Science supplying national needs

After a series of major global economic crises over the preceding two decades, there is public disenchantment with globalization and a strong push towards new localized growth models with sustainability at their core. The goal is to be more self-sufficient, to increase local production for internal and regional markets, and to improve quality of life and societal satisfaction, rather than growth per se. At the same time, efforts to build effective global governance structures have largely failed and instead, complex national and supranational regional alliances have formed among states, businesses and civic groups to address pressing challenges. Diverse national and regional solutions prosper in a widely experimental society.

2011

ICSU Foresight Analysis

International Council for Science (ICSU)

Scram Jets

Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Reaction Engines (UK), NASA (US), Boeing (US), Lockheed Martin (US), Airbus (France).

2018

Table of disruptive technologies

Imperial College London

Screenless Display

One of the more frustrating aspects of modern communications technology is that, as devices have miniaturized, they have become more difficult to interact with – no one would type out a novel on a smartphone, for example. The lack of space on screen-based displays provides a clear opportunity for screenless displays to fill the gap. Full-sized keyboards can already be projected onto a surface for users to interact with, without concern over whether it will fit into their pocket. Perhaps evoking memories of the early Star Wars films, holographic images can now be generated in three dimensions; in 2013, MIT’s Media Lab reported a prototype inexpensive holographic colour video display with the resolution of a standard TV. Screenless display may also be achieved by projecting images directly onto a person’s retina, not only avoiding the need for weighty hardware, but also promising to safeguard privacy by allowing people to interact with computers without others sharing the same view. By January 2014, one start-up company had already raised a substantial sum via Kickstarter with the aim of commercializing a personal gaming and cinema device using retinal display. In the longer term, technology may allow synaptic interfaces that bypass the eye altogether, transmitting “visual” information directly to the brain. This field saw rapid progress in 2013 and appears set for imminent breakthroughs of scalable deployment of screenless display. Various companies have made significant breakthroughs in the field, including virtual reality headsets, bionic contact lenses, the development of mobile phones for the elderly and partially blind people, and hologram-like videos without the need for moving parts or glasses.

2014

Top 10 emerging technologies for 2014

World Economic Forum (WEF)