Trends Identified
Sharing economy
Car- and bike-sharing programs, as well as the revolution in the nature of taxi services is set to reduce the purchase of private vehicles and by extension likely the consumption of oil related to passenger vehicles . Estimates by McKinsey suggest that the sharing economy is likely to reduce car sales by around 10 % over the next 25 years. The effect on oil demand in 2040 of this trend is somewhat uncertain, related to both the speed of adoption of the sharing economy and the actual replacement of oil – fueled vehicles with alternatives.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Sharing Economy
The collaborative nature of the online environment has led to the rise of the sharing economy, in which technology is leveraged to unlock idle capacity and provide access to products through renting or borrowing.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Shift in global economic power
Some emerging economies that were growing rapidly are now in recession. Commodity prices have played a considerable role in sending these economies into reverse. Businesses that are investing, or already invested, in emerging economies will need to make a careful assessment of whether and, if so, how they should manage in these more volatile market conditions, where prospects look less certain today than they did even a few years ago.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
Shift in Global Economic Power
The falling prices of crude oil, depreciation of strong currencies and rise of emerging economies poised challenges to the dominant powerhouses are some of the signs of global economic shift occurring presently.
2017
Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia
Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Shift of economic activity between and within regions
2016
Geostrategic risks on the rise
McKinsey
Shift of Global Power
Potential rebalancing of power from the West to other regions could present political and economic challenges to NATO members. While many developed nations have been experiencing slower economic growth, developing nations with faster growth may translate their rising economic power into greater political and military influence. As a consequence, the ability of the international community to integrate rising powers and manage the associated changes peacefully will be decisive for the future. Otherwise, the potential for tension or conflict could be increased in new as well as traditional hotspots, or threaten assured access to the global commons,17 compromising international relations and security.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Shift to global cooperation
Between today and 2030, the world will be characterized by increasing globalization, greater global complexity and technological advancement. Future problems will include international crises and serious risks of environmental pollution, affecting virtually every country in the world. These developments show how vulnerable the world is and will lead to a greater awareness of global responsibility.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Shifting competitive advantage
The emerging technologies will make it harder to find and keep competitive advantage in the production of some goods and services. Bioproduction through synthetic biology will likely make it easier and cheaper to make some classes of goods. These technologies have the potential to help countries be more self-sufficient in some foods, fuels and materials. Advanced nanomaterials and nanodevices are likely to require a more educated workforce and more intricate production, resulting in a smaller number of competitors using these technologies.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Shifting geopolitical and economic power
Talent is more mobile than ever, with workers willing to cross borders and cultures to improve their career prospects. Yet a number of geographic, economic, and political developments are blocking the smooth flow of talent to areas of demand, thereby compounding the overall talent shortage.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Shifting Political Structures
The transition of autocratic/theocratic regimes towards more democratic forms of government will continue. The Middle East and North African region has experienced political upheaval in recent years, dislodging pre-existing regimes in several countries. The ongoing transition of some older established autocratic/theocratic regimes to more democratic forms of government will be turbulent. Over the next decades, established regimes are likely to continue to face reform movements. While this may eventually lead to new participatory and more inclusive democratic structures, transitional nations will likely weather a period of social and political instability, and possibly political reversals. For example, the republics that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union are in the process of democratisation and have experienced similar issues. Fledgling democracies will require more time to mature and stabilise. During this period they are at a greater risk of setbacks and civil strife.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO