Trends Identified
The next frontier in power and commerce: Outer space
Outer space has emerged as a new strategic arena. Competition among countries to project power through space is intensifying as technological advances and growing commercial interests make outer space more accessible. These advances hold the promise of resource exploitation and territorial claims for human settlements. There are early parallels between what is happening in space and what happened in the seas in the colonial era. While these parallels hint that developments in space might be disorderly, they also suggest how nations could work together in the next frontier—through global rules for the global commons.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
The next generation distributed grid
Making distributed energy possible at scale will revolutionise the useability of (and market for) renewables, increase energy efficiency, and disrupt traditional carbon intensive power grids.
2017
Innovation for the Earth - Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet
PWC
The next social movement? Occupy Silicon Valley.
“The ire progressives once felt toward the 1% on Wall Street is turning on Silicon Valley,” says Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. “Where tech leaders were once hailed as the visionaries of a brave new world, viewed as a breed apart from financiers and other plutocrats, we're now finding ourselves mired in debates over taxes, housing and affordability.” Not everyone will camp outside headquarters in Mountain View or Menlo Park, but users will vote with their feet, deleting accounts and refusing to play their part in those companies’ business models, warns customer experience expert Don Peppers. “More people than ever will install and use ad blockers, decline surveys and opt out of cookies as 2019 develops into a banner year for privacy protection apps, data blockers and other security services,” says Peppers.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The office will empty out.
"With cities filling up and housing prices rising, employers will have to pay more for employees to afford an urban life. Some businesses will open an office in a smaller town; more will embrace employees’ working from home. The whole point of an office weakened years ago with the disastrous open floor-plan, a warren of people wearing headphones and messaging their brains out, together in name only. More recently, the movement to give working parents more flexibility has made managers hesitant to grade on attendance. And now, Slack, Github, Jira and other tools for virtual teams are being co-opted by workers of all stripes."A gradual process will, in 2019, reach a tipping point: The office will empty out. Working from home will change the most basic rhythm of industrial life. People will have more time to work, and also to play. What we’ll lose is the water cooler, which alongside the altar and the school entrance, was a place for us to connect with new people. Offices are also one of the last spots in an increasingly secular society for all of us to get a sense of community and purpose. I’ll be sorry to see them so diminished."
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The Outcome Economy: Hardware producing hard results
Intelligent hardware is bridging the last mile between the digital enterprise and the physical world. As leading enterprises come face-to-face with the Internet of Things, they are uncovering opportunities to embed hardware and sensors in their digital toolboxes. They are using these highly connected hardware components to give customers what they really want: not more products or services, but more meaningful outcomes. These “digital disrupters” know that getting ahead is no longer about selling things—it’s about selling results. Welcome to the “outcome economy.”
2015
Accenture Technology Vision 2015
Accenture
The pace of technological progress is accelerating, bringing significant opportunities to create value even as it redefines the future of work
Digital technologies have been reinventing the way we live, work, and organize. Smartphones, the mobile internet, e-commerce, and cloud-based services have opened the door to more mobility and convenience as well as to greater competition. Businesses have been harnessing advanced analytics and the Internet of Things to transform their operations, and those in the forefront reap the benefits: companies that are digital leaders in their sectors have faster revenue growth and higher productivity than their less-digitized peers. They improve profit margins three times more rapidly than average and are often the fastest innovators and the disruptors of their sectors. The forces of digital have yet to become fully mainstream, however. On average, industries are less than 40 percent digitized, despite the relatively deep penetration of these technologies in media, retail, and high tech. Now comes the next wave of innovation, in the form of advanced automation and artificial intelligence (AI). An explosion in algorithmic capabilities, computing capacity, and data is enabling beyond-human machine competencies and a new generation of systemlevel innovation. Machines already surpass human performance in areas like image recognition and object detection, and these capabilities can be used to diagnose skin cancer or lip-read more accurately than human experts. Combining these capabilities is leading to system-level innovation, for example the driverless car, which takes advantage of innovations in sensors, LIDAR, machine vision, mapping, satellites, navigation algorithms, and robotics. Our research finds that companies in the forefront of adopting AI are likely to increase employment rather than reduce it, as innovationfocused adopters position themselves for growth, which tends to stimulate employment. These technologies still have limitations, and deployment can be complex. Nonetheless, productivity gains across sectors are already visible, with AI use cases in functions such as sales and marketing (e.g., “next product to buy” personalization), supply chain and logistics, and preventive maintenance. Our analysis of more than 400 use cases across 19 industries and nine business functions found that AI could improve on traditional analytics techniques in 69 percent of potential use cases. Deep learning could account for as much as $3.5 trillion to $5.8 trillion in annual value, or 40 percent of the value created by all analytics techniques (Exhibit 3). For the global economy, too, AI adoption could be a boon. A simulation we conducted showed that AI adoption could raise global GDP by as much as $13 trillion by 2030, or about 1.2 percent additional GDP growth per year. AI could also contribute to tackling pressing societal challenges, from healthcare to climate change to humanitarian crises; a library of social good use cases we collected maps to all 17 of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Yet AI is not a silver bullet. Significant bottlenecks, especially relating to data accessibility and talent, will need to be overcome, and AI presents risks that will need to be mitigated. It could introduce or exacerbate social challenges, for example through malicious use or abuse, bias, privacy invasion, or lack of transparency.
2019
Navigating a world of disruption
McKinsey
The pace of working poverty reduction is slowing
Similarly, the global labour market has seen only weak progress in the area of working poverty. In 2017, extreme working poverty remained widespread, with more than 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries having a per capita household income or consumption of less than US$1.90 (PPP) per day. Overall, progress in reducing working poverty is too slow to keep pace with the growing labour force in developing countries, where the number of people in extreme working poverty is expected to exceed 114 million in 2018, or 40 per cent of all employed people.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
The Platform (R)evolution: Defining ecosystems, redefining industries
Among the Global 2000, digital industry platforms and ecosystems are fueling the next wave of breakthrough innovation and disruptive growth. Increasingly, platformbased companies are capturing more of the digital economy’s opportunities for strong growth and profitability. Rapid advances in cloud and mobility not only are eliminating the technology and cost barriers associated with such platforms, but also are opening up this new playing field to enterprises across industries and geographies. In short: platform-based ecosystems are the new plane of competition.
2015
Accenture Technology Vision 2015
Accenture
The political lifestyle
Pepsi practically invented life- style marketing in 1963, when it struck upon the idea for the Pepsi Generation, and the brand has been distilling the essence of youth into its ads ever since. In previous years, this involved montages of clean-cut teens cavorting at swimming holes and collaborations with the Spice Girls, but in 2017 Pepsi decided it meant protests and social conscience.
2018
Most contagious
Contagious
The primacy of purpose
Today’s brands must be purposeful and provide the services customers want while fulfilling steep demands for accountability and transparency. The business model of the future will require giving back—to employees, to communities, and to the planet.
2018
Trend watch 2018: the next five
Landor