Trends Identified
Unchaining land rights
Securing proof of land ownership is an enabling factor for increasing equality. Blockchain technology has the potential to make land registration transparent and tamper-proof. Securing land titles is an important step in empowering people to make investments and improve their financial situation.
2018
Global opportunity report
DNV GL
Unconventional oil
The cost-effective development of unconventional oil (heavy oils and bitumen) will make it possible to significantly (by several times) increase the hydrocarbon resource base. At the same time, the extraction of heavy oils is much more polluting from an environmental perspective and is characterized by significant increases in CO2 emissions as compared with traditional oil extraction. The extraction costs will only be paid back under the conditions of high global oil prices. Thus, heavy oils are coming to be a strategic reserve of liquid fuel to provide energy for developed nations in the event of a crisis.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Unconventional oil deposits
Oil from unconventional deposits includes problematic reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials, in particular traditional (or mobile) oil resources with difficult extraction conditions and immobile (or slow-moving) oil, caused by low porosity of collectors or high molecularity of the hydrocarbons themselves – dense and high-viscosity oils. However, on account of the lower consumer qualities and high costs of extraction, oil supplies from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions are evaluated only provisionally. The extraction of heavy oils is currently carried out in Canada, Venezuela, the USA and a number of other countries, including Russia, but according to the majority of forecasts, in the next two decades these products will not make a significant contribution to the global oil recovery.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Unemployment
The global unemployment rate during the MDG period fell from 6.5 percent in 2000 to 5.5 percent in 2007 but increased to 6.2 percent in 2009 due to the downturn of economic activity during the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, however, the unemployment rate worldwide has been declining steadily, reaching 5.8 percent in 2016, and is projected to fall further in the coming years
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Uneven and unequal
For the past three decades, there has been a steady decline in poverty rates in the developing world. This progress is anticipated to continue, not least in countries such as China and India. Yet the contrast between rich and poor remains stark.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Uneven growth, increasing inequality
Technological development seems to portend a fundamental change in the relationship between productivity and employment, as shown in Figure 2. This means that the economy can grow without producing many jobs, a trend with particular import in those countries that still have a growing youth population – countries that tend to be at the bottom of the global power scale. In spite of the democratization of at least some forms of technology, there is little reason to expect decreasing inequality. Rather, trends of increasing economic inequality – particularly the growth of the very rich – are likely to continue. Economic growth will be driven by technology that has the potential to increase the power of large corporations. There will be more consolidation of large businesses: a trend well underway, as a quick glance at the airline or any other major industry will show. In wealthy countries, labour-intensive work will increasingly be outsourced to Asia and there will be more automation/robots in sectors where unskilled workers have traditionally found jobs, giving rise to a permanent underclass of unemployment.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Ungoverned Space
Some geographical regions, including weak states and rapidly growing cities, will not be subject to legal, legitimate or conventional administration. Where this occurs, power is likely to be wielded by groups ranging from warlords and armed criminal gangs through to traditional tribal or religious structures. Each region will be unique and engagement by outside powers will require an understanding of the individual context of the region. Some of these regions are likely to subsist through illicit trade and institutionalised criminal activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability. Many are likely to suffer conflict and be a source of instability in neighbouring regions. The risks associated with these spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the international system. Similarly, states that are unwilling or unable to invest sufficiently in maritime security, are unlikely to be able to patrol and enforce their jurisdiction and internationally binding maritime obligations in their territorial seas and economic zones. This may lead to activity stretching from maritime pollution, dumping of hazardous materials, illegal fishing, smuggling (of drugs, people and other forms of contraband) up to piracy attacks. This will be particularly important when an area of sea adjacent to a weak state encompasses key communication nodes, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Bab-el-Mandeb.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
United States Transition
The status, culture and actions of the US will have a decisive effect on the evolution of the international system, as it adjusts to an uneven, possibly unbalanced transition from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Universal flu vaccine
The development of universal flu vaccine that can prevent influenza could improve the quality of life of the people who suffer from flu every year. The universal flu vaccine related technology needs to identify the certain parts of antigen that is well kept during the evolution process to be practically applied widely, in order to optimize its antigenicity for development.
2012
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2012
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Unmanned aerial vehicles/ Drones
The proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – commonly known as drones – that are easy to use and low cost is leading to their widespread deployment in aerial inspection tasks, mapping physical and social phenomena, providing unmanned cargo deliveries, and taking aerial photography and video. There is a clear opportunity to transform the way development organisations collect and deliver data and physical objects, enabling these tasks to be undertaken faster, safer, cheaper, more efficiently and more accurately than ever before.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)