Trends Identified
Unrest in Iran
Unrest in the Middle East is always concerning for investors, especially ones who pay attention to the price of oil. While the recent protests in Iran will likely be contained to that region, if things flare up further, and if it does disrupt oil production — the country produces about 4.4 million barrels of oil per day — then we could see energy prices spike, says Hormozi.
2018
6 global trends that can derail your portfolio in 2018
CNBC
Upcycling carbon
Urgently cutting carbon emissions at source is essential to mitigating catastrophic climate change, and negative emissions are needed to keep us on the well below 2°C pathway. Business is increasingly discovering ways to upcycle carbon, generating more value, emitting less and accelerating carbon negative technologies.
2018
Global opportunity report
DNV GL
Urban Oasis
As in the Middle Ages, cities rapidly assume increased importance, as national governments cannot deliver on overall economic growth. Cities are a magnet for the brightest and most talented. Well-run cities spawn and use new technologies, helping to make them self-sufficient in terms of resources. They seek special political privileges and autonomy.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Urban World
The number and scale of cities continues to grow across the globe — driven by rapid urbanization in emerging markets and continued urbanization in mature markets. The United Nations (UN) reports that 54% of the world’s population currently live in cities, and by 2050, this proportion will increase to 66%. In order to harness the economic benefi ts of urbanization, policy-makers and the private sector must do effective planning and attract sustained investment in railroads, highways, bridges, ports, airports, water, power, energy, telecommunications and other types of infrastructure. Effective policy responses to the challenges that cities face, including climate change and poverty, will be essential to making cities of the future competitive, sustainable and resilient.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Urbanisation
Cities will contain 65% of the world’s population by 2040, and 95% of urban population growth will occur within developing nations’ mega-cities33 (containing more than 10 million people). These urban centres will be situated generally in littoral areas, which provide easier access to trade and other advantages. Individuals will tend to migrate to areas offering broader employment and education opportunities, and possibly higher living standards. This will result in the urbanisation of roughly 75 million citizens every year. However, increased urbanisation is also accompanied by the growth of slums, which are expected to contain 1.5 - 2 billion people, or approximately 58% of the total urban population as early as 2020.34
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Urbanisation
20 of the world largest 50 cities will be in Asia by 2025, up from only eight in 2007. In 2010 the urbanisation of the world reached 50 percent and it is expected that by 2030, six out of ten people will be city dwellers, which is double the number back in 1950. By 2050 it’s forecast that 70 percent, of the then nine billion people, will live in cities.
2012
The future
Steria
Urbanisation
Globally, more people live in urban than rural areas and this is expected to gather pace. But the urban transition is taking place at different rates in different parts of the world. By 2050 most northern regions are expected to be at least 84% urban. In contrast, even by 2050, Africa’s urban dwellers are projected to make up just 62% of its total, and Asia’s 65%. Even in Asia and Africa, though, rapid rural-to-urban shifts are taking place. Urbanisation is a key engine of economic growth, but with this comes the risks of social marginality, conflict and exploitation.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Urbanisation
The global urban population began to exceed the rural population in 2006. By 2040, 65% of people are likely to live in urban areas, with the majority of growth in the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia.155 A considerable proportion of urban growth is likely to occur in shanty towns, with the number of slum dwellers doubling to around 2 billion by 2040. Rapid urbanisation is likely to lead to urban rather than rural insurgency.156 Mega-cities157 are likely to remain significant, containing around 10% of the global urban population. However, approximately 50% of urban dwellers are likely to live within urban areas of less than 500,000 people. These regions are likely to absorb nearly half the projected increase of the urban population and face the greatest shortfalls in infrastructure and service provision increasing the risk of environmental disasters.1
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Urbanisation: bigger, better, faster – dirtier, unhealthier, lonelier
As we suggested in section 2.4., populations are becoming increasingly urban. It is argued that the new middle classes are increasingly residing in a large pool of emerging cities that will represent half of global GDP growth and a quarter of the world’s population by 2025.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation