Trends Identified

Climate change & ecosystem at risk

Global warming and strategies to offset carbon emissions are two of the most prevalent issues of the 21st century. As economies continue to grow, so too does the demand for energy and, as a result, CO2 emissions. As part of Roland Berger’s leading Trend Compendium 2030 , this in-depth analysis takes a detailed look at what growing energy demands mean for the future of industry. We investigate three key components – global warming, rising CO2 emissions, and the obstacles faced by our ecosystems – to uncover the global challenges that climate change will bring with it.

2017

Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Climate change and environment

Mitigating the considerable extent and impacts of climate change will require ambitious targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and waste recycling to be set and met, implying a major shift towards a low- carbon “circular economy” by mid-century. This shift will affect all parts of the economy and society and will be enabled by technological innovation and adoption in developed and developing economies.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Climate change and environmental change

31% of responding CEOs answered that they were 'extremely concerned'

2018

Global CEO survey

PWC

Climate change and planetary boundaries

As evidence mounts that the impacts of human-caused climate change are already upon us, the future of international development cannot be considered in isolation from the need to adapt. Furthermore the Earth’s natural systems are under enormous pressure, with huge consequences for the world’s most vulnerable people. As UNep’s 2012 Global Environment Outlook assessment concludes: “Scientific evidence shows that Earth systems are being pushed towards their bio-physical limits, with evidence that these limits are close and have in some cases been exceeded”.

2015

Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs

The Guardian

Climate change and resource competition

Changes in the global climate due to rising greenhouse gases will not be reversed by 2035, even if great strides are made with the implementation of political agreements to greatly reduce carbon usage in the future. As the consequences of climate change become increasingly apparent -- and natural events such as famines and water strain become linked to climate change in popular discourse -- the world is likely to see climate-related political disputes proliferate at the national and international level. Renewable energy will proliferate and become cost-competitive around the world, but will trigger instability in countries dependent on fossil fuels, many of which are in Europe’s neighbourhood.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Climate change and resources scarcity

As the world becomes more populous, urbanised and prosperous, demand for energy, food and water will rise. But the Earth has a finite amount of natural resources to satisfy this demand. Without significant global action, average temperatures are predicted to increase by more than two degrees Celsius, a threshold at which scientists believe significant and potentially irreversible environmental changes will occur.

2017

Megatrends

PWC

Climate Change and Weak States

Weak states have limited capacity for governance, and many are unlikely to adapt to the environmental challenges of climate change.168 Weak states are likely to have youthful populations, large families and be dependant on rural production for their income. Extreme weather events and increasing temperature will exacerbate instability due to immediate shortages of food and water. Longer-term effects may include a degradation of agricultural land that increases internal and regional migration. Weak states will be insufficiently prosperous to procure alternative supplies through external markets. In addition, they often have poor human rights records and suffer endemic corruption which weakens governance and service provision, increasing the likelihood of recurring instability. As the severity and incidence of internal instability increases, exacerbated by climate change, long-term societal changes can occur, such as the creation of large numbers of orphaned children or the displacement of large ethnic or tribal groups.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence

Climate change is causing more extreme weather events and escalating losses

The world’s top ten hottest years on record have occurred since 1998, and the top five since 2010125. Since pre-industrial times, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by 40%; the Arctic sea ice extent shrunk on average between 3.5 and 4.1% per decade in the 1979–2002 period; sea level rose at an average annual rate of 3.2 mm/year from 1993 to 2010, and since 1961 the average annual temperature of oceans has been increasing and the warming effect has reached a depth of at least 3000m.

2017

Surfing the digital tsunami

Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Climate change, environment, and health issues will demand attention

A range of global hazards pose imminent and longer-term threats that will require collective action to address—even as cooperation becomes harder. More extreme weather, water and soil stress, and food insecurity will disrupt societies. Sea-level rise, ocean acidification, glacial melt, and pollution will change living patterns. Tensions over climate change will grow. Increased travel and poor health infrastructure will make infectious diseases harder to manage.

2017

Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress

USA, US National Intelligence Council

Climate change: more disasters

The likely trends over the next thirty years are for increases in the severity and intensity of sudden onset natural disasters, particularly those related to weather (storms, hurricanes, cyclones, flooding). These will increasingly affect urban populations, in part because there will simply be more people living in cities and in part because more people will be living on more marginal land. Climate change will also drive rural to urban migration.

2011

Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action

International Review of the Red Cross