Trends Identified

Global Inequality

Economic, social and political inequality of opportunity, occurring between both individuals and groups will continue to fuel perceptions of injustice among those whose expectations are not met. This will increase tension and instability, both within and between societies and result in expressions of unrest such as disorder, violence, criminality, terrorism and insurgency. While material conditions for most people are likely to improve over the next 30 years, the gap between rich and poor is likely to increase.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence

Global Interconnectivity

The interdependence of the global system, under-pinned by physical links, international governance and norms, and a belief in the positive benefits of international markets and trade, is likely to act as a double-edged sword. It will act as a stabilising influence between major powers by raising the costs of confrontation and conflict, but is also likely to destabilise states and regions that are unable to cope with the increased competition and social change that interconnectivity brings. Interconnectivity and interdependence is epitomised by the symbiotic relationship between China and the US. On one hand both states are likely to see each other as a security challenge, but they will continue to exploit the economic opportunities that exist between them. However, the interconnectivity of the global system also represents a significant systemic risk to highly-integrated economies given that failure of one part is likely to have broad impact.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence

Global knowledge society

In this study, we zero in on megatrend number six, the Global Knowledge Society, and its three subtrends: know-how base, war for talent, and gender gap. From basic education to workplace applications, we uncover the challenges and opportunities that lay ahead in the field of education and the need for a skilled workforce. We begin by looking at how the diffusion of knowledge can be increased. Education, of course, is the foundation of the know-how base. We track how the number of years spent in primary, lower and upper secondary, and tertiary education directly correspond to increased GDP per capita. We also examine literacy rates, how enrollment figures differ between world regions, and what can be done to level the field. This will be a critical step in ending the war for talent, where certain demographics in established economies have left them lacking skilled workers—approximately 38% of employers struggle to find suitable candidates—and emerging regions are threatened with a brain drain. We continue by examining the gender gap, comparing figures across developed and developing regions, and identifying the factors that must be addressed to bridge the difference.

2017

Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Global marketplace

Faster growth rates and favorable demographics in key rapid-growth markets will continue to be a feature of the next decade or so. The gulf between “mature” and “rapid-growth” countries continues to shrink. A new tier of emerging nations, driven by their own nascent middle classes, will draw global attention. Innovation will increasingly take place in rapid-growth markets, with Asia surfacing as a major hub. In the global marketplace, the war for talent will become increasingly fierce, necessitating greater workforce diversity to secure competitive advantage. The economies of the world will remain highly interdependent through trade, investment and financial system linkages, driving the need for stronger global policy coordination among nations and resilient supply chains for companies operating in this environment. At the same time, domestic interests will continue to clash and compete with the forces of global integration. Pushback and opposition to global integration manifests itself in various economic, political and cultural forms, including trade and currency protectionism, the imposition of sanctions to achieve political aims, anti-globalization protests, as well as the strengthening of nationalistic, religious and ethnic movements around the world.

2015

Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion

EY

Global network development

Global networks will increasingly enable access to and provide information on commodities and capital assets. Global networks will increasingly be used for dissemination of post-truth information

2017

Strategic foresight analysis

NATO

Global power shifts

State borders and geopolitical relationships resulted from centuries of voyages of discovery, from colonisation, decolonisation, wars and the Cold War. Much of the political unrest in the world is caused by the globalisation of the economy [Knox and Marston, 2011]. In addition, a global power shift is taking place. Asia is becoming more powerful. During the past ten years Asian countries have accounted for half of the global growth of the Gross National Product (GNP). All indications are that within the next ten years Asia will dominate Europe and the US. The fast rise of India and China will lead to a multi-polar world in which the US is no longer supreme.

2014

Horizon scan 2050

Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)

Global Publics More Upbeat About the Economy

Views of the economy have rebounded in several large and economically powerful countries. In 2009, during the Great Recession, just 10% of Japanese, 17% of Americans and 28% of Germans rated their country’s current economic situation as good. By 2017, these shares had increased by at least 30 percentage points in each country, including a 58-point jump in Germany, where 86% of the public now describes the nation’s economy as good.

2017

6 trends in international public opinion from our Global Indicators Database

Pew Research Center

Global Risks

As we race to keep up with technological changes of unprecedented depth and speed, leveraging on new economic businesses models and conserving our environment by going towards a lower-carbon future, managing these transitions and the interconnected risks that entail will require long-term thinking, investment and international cooperation (The Global Risk 2017 Report, WEF).

2017

Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia

Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia

Global risks: A riskier &/or Safer world

Does greater connectivity increase the risk that local difficulties will turn into global disasters? Or does it provide opportunities to diversify and thus dilute the dangers? The preliminary evidence suggests that it may actually do both.

2008

11th Annual global CEO Survey

PWC

Global Trade

When the global economy grows, and the majority of major economies participate in that growth, a significant backlash against trade liberalisation is unlikely and international trade will grow.211 However, trade growth may be temporarily reversed in response to periodic economic, resource or financial crises. Moreover, environmental crises and rising transportation costs, linked to climate change and high energy prices, may lower, or even reverse trade growth, especially in manufactured goods.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence