Trends Identified

Global trade and financial rules will change

The future of the Doha Round of WTO talks is uncertain, but it is unlikely that the gains made in multilateral liberalisation under the Uruguay round will be reversed. Nevertheless, the absolute shift of manufacturing production to developing countries and a likely economic slowdown among the OECD countries raise the spectre of resurgent protectionism in the North.

2011

Africa in 50 Years’ Time

African Development Bank

Global unemployment remains elevated at more than 190 million

The latest developments in global unemployment are also mixed. According to the ILO’s new estimation, based on improved data sets and methodologies, the global unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 5.5 per cent in 2018 (from 5.6 per cent in 2017), marking a turnaround after three years of rising unemployment rates. However, with a growing number of people entering the labour market to seek employment, the total number of unemployed is expected to remain stable in 2018, above 192 million. In 2019, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain essentially unchanged, whereas the number of unemployed is projected to grow by 1.3 million.

2018

World Employment and Social Outlook

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Global urbanisation and growing number of megacities

In the 1950s, about 70% of the world’s population lived in rural areas, and the rest in urban settlements. Today, more than half the population (54%) lives in an urban area and this number is projected to reach at least 66% by 2050

2017

Surfing the digital tsunami

Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Global Warming

The average global temperature will rise 0.5-1.5 °C between now and 2030. Over the past 20 years, an overall temperature increase of 0.5 °C has been measured, with land temperatures rising about twice as fast as ocean temperatures. An increasing rate of warming has taken place especially over the past 25 years. During the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago, the average global temperature was 6 degrees lower than today. Even with relatively minor average temperature increases, the nature, frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods, droughts and heavy precipitation are expected to rise. Sea level will rise between 6 and 11 centimeters during the next 20 years. Two processes are at work: melting polar ice and the expansion of sea water as oceans get warmer, both a result of global warming

2011

Trend compendium 2030

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Globalisation

The rapid convergence between the E7 (emerging seven economies of China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey) and the G7 (global seven economies of Unites States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Canada and Italy) has been accelerated by the global financial crisis. In 2007, total G7 gross domestic product (GDP, a country’s total economic output) at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP, the purchasing value in the local economy) was still around 60 percent larger than total E7 GDP8, yet by the end of 2010, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC, a global consulting firm) estimates the gap had shrunk to around only 35 percent. The catch-up process is set to continue over the next decade: by 2020 total E7 GDP could already be higher than total G7 GDP.

2012

The future

Steria

Globalisation

The world economy’s centre of gravity will continue to shift east and southwards, and new players will wield more power, some of them states, some of them non-state actors (such as multinational enterprises and NGOs) and others newly emerging megacities. Driving and facilitating many of these shifts in power and influence is globalisation, which operates through flows of goods, services, investment, people and ideas, and is enabled by widespread adoption of digital technologies. But globalisation will inevitably face counter-currents and crosswinds, such as geopolitical instability, possible armed conflict and new barriers to trade.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

Globalisation

During the next 30 years, the number of transactions, conducted irrespective of physical distance, is likely to increase. Such an expansion is likely to shape and, in general, improve everyday life for millions of people. A key feature of globalisation is likely to be the continuing internationalisation of markets for goods, capital, services and labour, which integrates geographically dispersed consumers and suppliers. This is likely to be an engine for accelerating economic growth, but also a source of risk, as local markets become increasingly exposed to destabilising fluctuations in the wider global economy.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence

Globalisation of Financial Resources

The financial networks and communication systems that manage the world’s critical resources are increasingly intertwined. The interconnected world creates greater opportunity for better management of global resources; it may also provide incentives for co-operation and multilateral approaches in addressing global issues. However, vulnerability to exploitation by non-state actors, ranging from international criminal networks to cyber criminals and terrorists, will increase. Attackers could target banking and financial institutions or communication systems. Additionally, as nations become increasingly interdependent, a negative economic event in one country could well be compounded globally as it spreads quickly to other markets.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Globalisation reimagined

CEOs’ shift towards a targeted strategy signals the advance of globalisation – but it may diverge from how it’s looked in the past. Companies are not only affected by globalisation; the actions they take will shape it. And this time, the evidence shows, CEOs are going to do it a little differently.

2011

14th Annual global CEO Survey

PWC

Globalization

The liberalization of global economic policy has opened borders, supply chains, and trade patterns, creating impacts in one country or region that affect or cascade to others, based on market activity.

2017

Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World

Deloitte