Trends Identified
Event-Driven Model
Business is always sensing, and ready to exploit, new digital business moments (see "Business Events, Business Moments and Event Thinking in Digital Business" (/doc/code/338380?ref=ddisp) ). This is central to digital business. Business events reflect the discovery of notable states or state changes, such as the completion of a purchase order. Some business events, or combinations of events, constitute business moments — detected situations that call for specific business actions. The most significant business moments have implications for multiple parties (for example, separate applications, lines of business or partners).
2017
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018
Gartner
EU- wide internet of things initiative
The number of IoT connections within the EU is estimated to increase from approximately 1.8 million in 2013 to almost 6 billion in 2020. IoT revenues (including the value of system shipments, devices, IoT technologies and correlated IT services) should increase from more than €307 billion in 2013 to more than €1,180 billion in 2020. IoT is expected to impact all economic sectors, with faster take-up in manufacturing and consumer packaged goods. The digital market being the most competitive market for IoT products and services, it should be equipped with appropriate open and high level standards applicable EU wide and with appropriate so and hard law initiatives ensuring a high level of trust in IoT devices and seamless access to the public and private sector.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
EU energy security
The importance of energy security and dependence will grow and is likely to become the EU’s Achilles heel.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Ethical choices
Sustainability and ethics are growing and, arguably, necessary trends. Insects far outnumber livestock (in 2013, the UN suggested crickets could help stabilize the world food supply6) and don’t produce methane (unlike cows). Soylent’s meal-replacing drinks are vegan, and the precision of 3D-printed food reduces waste.
2017
How we eat now: five disruptive food trends
EY
Ethical and Regulatory Practices
In the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC), the lawfulness of an attack on a military objective must be kept under review during the planning stage and execution phase; attacks are cancelled or suspended where it is realised that a target is not a military objective, or that disproportionate collateral damage will result. While the desire to minimise military casualties will spur the further development of autonomous systems for a variety of tasks, involving risk to human life, the extent to which autonomous systems can meet the requirements of the LOAC will determine how widespread their use would become.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Erosion of Governance
Erosion of Governance the decline of the traditional world order. Direct democracy: As power is shifting more into the hands of individuals, direct democracy has the potential to severely affect the trajectory of several political and economic debates. Consider the 2016 Brexit Referendum in the United Kingdom, which resulted in a 52% to 48% vote to leave the European Union. Direct democracy played a major role in this referendum as every vote mattered in a race with such tight margins. Decentralization: Historically, transactions were managed with the use of handwritten accounting ledgers in which the type, amount, and parties of a transaction were captured. Over the years, this private ledger has evolved with the advent of computing. Today, we see the emergence of a decentralized form of governance aided by technology: the blockchain. The blockchain is an open-source distributed ledger system to which an infinite number of parties can contribute, promoting accountability and trust in a system previously managed by a few. Resource disputes: Land and sea disputes have always existed but as governance models shift and resource scarcity rises, territorial disputes have started to have significant environmental undertones. For example, recently an international tribunal voted that China’s claim to territorial rights to the oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea had no legal basis, and that its actions (such as the construction of artificial islands) had endangered the marine environment and interfered with the Philippine’s fishing and oil industries. Free markets: Support for free market ideologies has started to grow as societies begin to get tired of a series of public policies that are thought to benefit only the rich. With socioeconomic inequities widening, the clamor for a reduction in government intervention is at an all-time high and the desire to return to a free market economy in which the “invisible hand” directs outcomes is gaining traction. Alternative governments: As political tensions increase, countries become more nationalistic, and socioeconomic inequities continue to divide nation states, the old models of global governance are being tested and challenged. New, alternative governments are rising to power, capitalizing on the pervasive frustration felt by the middle class and the lack of consensus about collaborative governance.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Environmentally safe and energy saving systems for integrated and deep processing of minerals
The introduction of environmentally safe and resource-efficient processing and recycling of communal waste generating secondary raw materials and end products will dramatically reduce the use of sites for the dumping of solid household waste, which will lead, on the one hand, to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale and, on the other hand, the replacement of a portion of traditional fuels. The waste processing and recycling market will grow actively, and correspondingly there is expected to be growth in the market for construction materials made from secondary raw materials.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Environmentally safe and energy saving processing and re-use of production waste to create articles, materials and valuable components
The application of equipment for environmentally safe and resource-efficient processing of production waste, generating goods and materials and valuable components will provide an opportunity to engage in the use of inactive reserves of minerals, poor ores, and metallurgy waste, and to reduce the amount of metal lost in dumps of unpayable ore and old waste from processing companies. Aside from this, the introduction of new developments will help to reduce the level of environmental pollution, in particular by minimising the area used for storing and disposing of waste on industrial land, which can eliminate the risk of highly toxic com pounds entering the soil, waste water and the atmosphere.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Environmentally safe and energy saving processing and re-use of household waste to generate secondary raw materials
The introduction of environmentally friendly and energy efficient systems offering integrated and extensive processing of raw materials to divide minerals into end products with the maximum quantity of mineral components will allow for substantial improvements in the effective ness of mineral processing and a reduction in the volume of waste production. It will be possible to develop new affordable sources of raw minerals which, in turn, will lead to cheaper processing, changes in the geography of exporting and importing nations, and growth in competition on the market. There is expected to be a fall in capital expenditure and water consumption by 15–20% and expenditure on reagents and energy to process minerals by 30–50%; the productivity of processing and enrichment facilities will increase by 10–40% and the level of useful component extraction will increase significantly.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Environmental/climate change
The changes in climate change will bring challenges and opportunities. The changes to the climate imposes stresses on current ways of life, on individual's ability to subsist and on governments' abilities to keep pace and provide for the needs of their populations
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO