Trends Identified
Economies
At the same time, and as a direct consequence of this population growth, we are forecasting that our global economy will triple in size by 20501 and is set to have doubled to over $130 trillion in just 20 years’ time, in 20302. Much of this growth is amongst the emerging economies (E7) of the world, including China, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia. As a consequence, by 2019 the E7, emerging seven major economies, will be a larger economic bloc than the G7 countries who have led the world economically and to a great extent, politically for the past 60 years. By 2050 China will have the largest economy with a GDP of over $24 trillion whilst the United States’ economy is expected to reach £22 trillion and India the third largest economy at $8 trillion.
2012
The future
Steria
Economic recovery: from double-dip recession towards sustained slow growth?
In this period of economic crisis, tensions and distortions, it is often suggested that while short-term measures can alleviate the worst effects of the downturn, economic growth will be the long-term solution to many of the issues currently faced by both developed and emerging countries. As a result, several factors will interact with economic growth to play a significant role in enabling – or hindering – economic recovery. In the longer run, the key question lies in determining the possible transformative effects of economic growth, or lack of it, on the EU landscape.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Economic power shift
Emerging economies are lifting millions out of poverty while also exerting more influence in the global economy. With a rebalancing of global power, both international institutions and national governments will need a greater focus on maintaining their transparency and inclusiveness.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Economic interconnectedness
The interconnected global economy will see a continued increase in the levels of international trade and capital flows, but unless international conventions can be strengthened, progress and optimum economic benefits may not be realized.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Economic Growth
Over the last 30 years, the global economy has grown at a rate of 3- 4% and output has increased 4-fold.199 There has been regional variation: the newly- industrialised Asian economies have raised output 12-fold, while the G7 group of industrialised states have had a 5-fold increase. However, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced only a 3-fold increase, despite more than doubling its population and potential workforce during that time.200 Growth in the global economy will continue, accompanied by general improvements in material well-being. However, economic growth, combined with the continuing rise in the global population, will intensify the demand for natural resources, minerals, and energy. When allied to demographic ageing and environmental and political challenges, the likely result is a reduction in global economic growth rates. This growth will continue to be uneven, fluctuating over time and between regions, with sub-Saharan Africa likely to lag behind other regions primarily because of governance challenges, linked to endemic corruption.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic Globalisation
Globalisation, based on persistent technological innovation, is likely to remain the most significant driver of long- term economic change. Nevertheless, liberal trade and investment policies that have accelerated globalisation since the end of World War II will be subject to periodic challenge, and may be temporarily reversed.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic experiments
Many growth policy tools have reached their limits. Central banks and governments in the developed world responded to the financial crisis by slashing interest rates , creating innovative facilities to try to keep the credit of lowing, and in some cases bailing out financial and nonfinancial players. Different mixes of austerity and structural reforms also were tried. When these proved insufficient to restart growth, leaders around the world turned to new, sometimes overlapping policy experiments, in search of a more effective solution.
2017
The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress
McKinsey
Economic and trade downturn
The effects of the 2008 financial crisis, for instance, spread to developing countries, primarily through declines in trade and commodity prices and reduced access to credit, as lower demand in developed countries damaged export revenues and slowed economic growth in developing countries (UN DESA 2011). While developing countries overall managed to absorb the shock of the 2008 crisis, their responses increased fiscal deficits and deteriorated current-account balances. As these indicators have not reverted to their pre-crisis levels in many developing countries, there will be limited capacity in future to absorb another major economic shock (UN MDG Gap Task Force 2015).
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Ecological threats
While climate change is a gradual process that will be felt over the course of decades, it also increases the likelihood of relatively sudden disasters, from stronger hurricanes, deeper famines, or droughts. By 2035, the world will most likely be confronted by more natural disasters, and the political system will be required to adjust to them. Northern Europe will see greater flooding. Southern Europe will experience more frequent heatwaves. The international system will need to create a more robust system to protect climate refugees and migrants, who will grow as climate change increases the power of natural disasters and rapid urbanisation means that natural disasters will affect more people.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Ecological Restoration Technology Using Microorganisms
Ecological restoration technology using microorganisms to decompose toxic or persistent chemicals
2017
10 emerging technologies in 2017
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)