Trends Identified
Natural resource availability
Population growth will impact on those resources that are finite. In particular, there will be increasing pressure on water availability, both for drinking and for agriculture. The production of food will be a challenge as the availability of fertile land is limited, a situation that is exacerbated by the degradation of natural ecosystems. There will be increasing demand on finite sources of energy, with fossil fuels having to be extracted from previously unexploited locations. Other rare materials are also being used at rates which are unsustainable.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Natural language processing
The technology can translate not just a word, but a naturally spoken sentences where it can create and understand variety of expressions. The demand for translation of natural conversation is expected to rise exponentially due to declined physical and metacognitive ability from rapid aging. This technology can be combined with AI into a robot which can be useful for the elderly who needs someone to converse with.
2013
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2013
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Natural gas from unconventional deposits and with unconventional extraction conditions
Natural gas from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions (shale, water-dissolved, gas from other low-permeability formations and deep beds, coal methane, gas hydrates) is unique for its lower mineral content per unit area and higher development costs compared with traditional reservoirs. Unconventional gas resources are estimated at about 950–1200 trillion m3 (excluding gas-hydrates and water-dissolved gas, which increase this value considerably) and are more than double the volume of traditional resources.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Natural Disasters
The effects of natural disasters will become more devastating. Natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, meteor strikes) will occur with devastating impacts on humanity. Increased population and infrastructure in disaster prone areas will magnify the consequences of these natural disasters.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Natural disasters
Natural disasters will have increasing impact, partly due to overall increases in the severity and prevalence of severe weather events, but also due changes in the regions and times of year where these events may occur.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
NATO’s Image Improves on Both Sides of Atlantic
Views of NATO have ticked upward in many member countries. Opinions about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have improved on both sides of the Atlantic over the past year. The share of the public with a favorable view of the alliance increased by 9 percentage points in the U.S. and 10 points in Canada, along with a rise of 7 points in the Netherlands, 8 points in Germany, 9 points in Poland and 11 points in France, where it had fallen 15 points between 2015 and 2016. At least six-in-ten people in each of these countries now have a favorable view of NATO. In the U.S., the recent uptick in approval has mainly been driven by Democrats, while Republican views have remained largely unchanged.
2017
6 trends in international public opinion from our Global Indicators Database
Pew Research Center
Nanowire Lithium-ion Batteries
As stores of electrical charge, batteries are critically important in many aspects of modern life. Lithium-ion batteries, which offer good energy density (energy per weight or volume) are routinely packed into mobile phones, laptops and electric cars, to name just a few common uses. However, to increase the range of electric cars to match that of petrol-powered competitors – not to mention the battery lifetime between charges of mobile phones and laptops – battery energy density needs to be improved dramatically. Batteries are typically composed of two electrodes, a positive terminal known as a cathode, and a negative terminal known as an anode, with an electrolyte in between. This electrolyte allows ions to move between the electrodes to produce current. In lithium-ion batteries, the anode is composed of graphite, which is relatively cheap and durable. However, researchers have begun to experiment with silicon anodes, which would offer much greater power capacity. One engineering challenge is that silicon anodes tend to suffer structural failure from swelling and shrinking during charge-discharge cycle. Over the last year, researchers have developed possible solutions that involve the creation of silicon nanowires or nanoparticles, which seem to solve the problems associated with silicon’s volume expansion when it reacts with lithium. The larger surface area associated with nanoparticles and nanowires further increases the battery’s power density, allowing for fast charging and current delivery. Able to fully charge more quickly, and produce 30%-40% more electricity than today’s lithium-ion batteries, this next generation of batteries could help transform the electric car market and allow the storage of solar electricity at the household scale. Initially, silicon-anode batteries are expected to begin to ship in smartphones within the next two years.
2014
Top 10 emerging technologies for 2014
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Nanotechnology: 'Privacy will be a quaint obsession'
Twenty years ago, Don Eigler, a scientist working for IBM in California, wrote out the logo of his employer in letters made of individual atoms. This feat was a graphic symbol of the potential of the new field of nanotechnology, which promises to rebuild matter atom by atom, molecule by molecule, and to give us unprecedented power over the material world. Some, like the futurist Ray Kurzweil, predict that nanotechnology will lead to a revolution, allowing us to make any kind of product for virtually nothing; to have computers so powerful that they will surpass human intelligence; and to lead to a new kind of medicine on a sub-cellular level that will allow us to abolish ageing and death. I don't think that Kurzweil's "technological singularity" – a dream of scientific transcendence that echoes older visions of religious apocalypse – will happen. Some stubborn physics stands between us and "the rapture of the nerds". But nanotechnology will lead to some genuinely transformative applications. New ways of making solar cells very cheaply on a very large scale offer us the best hope we have for providing low-carbon energy on a big enough scale to satisfy the needs of a growing world population aspiring to the prosperity we're used to in the developed world. We'll learn more about intervening in our biology at the sub-cellular level and this nano-medicine will give us new hope of overcoming really difficult and intractable diseases, such as Alzheimer's, that will increasingly afflict our population as it ages. The information technology that drives your mobile phone or laptop is already operating at the nanoscale. Another 25 years of development will lead us to a new world of cheap and ubiquitous computing, in which privacy will be a quaint obsession of our grandparents. Nanotechnology is a different type of science, respecting none of the conventional boundaries between disciplines and unashamedly focused on applications rather than fundamental understanding. Given the huge resources being directed towards nanotechnology in China and its neighbours, this may also be the first major technology of the modern era that is predominantly developed outside the US and Europe.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Nanotechnology for solar
Solar cells, cheaper now than they have ever been, are poised for significant improvement due largely to nanotechnology. High-efficiency multi-junction solar cells, infrared energy capture and wavelength-splitting designs may increase high-efficiency solar cell performance by 200-300%. Roll-to-roll printing of solar cells on plastic using photosynthetic inks will allow solar panels to be manufactured at significantly lower costs than even today’s low prices.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Nanotechnology for batteries
Batteries will improve through the use of enhanced nanomaterials and economies of scale. We expect higher capacities, much faster recharging, and greater longevity and significantly lower prices. Better and cheaper batteries could be the cornerstone technology to displace the internal combustion engine for passenger vehicles and support the transition to renewables in homes and businesses by addressing the intermittency of renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Using these technologies, buildings may become energy independent and solar-powered fueling stations could support the growing electric vehicle market.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada