Trends Identified
Environmentally safe and energy saving processing and re-use of household waste to generate secondary raw materials
The introduction of environmentally friendly and energy efficient systems offering integrated and extensive processing of raw materials to divide minerals into end products with the maximum quantity of mineral components will allow for substantial improvements in the effective ness of mineral processing and a reduction in the volume of waste production. It will be possible to develop new affordable sources of raw minerals which, in turn, will lead to cheaper processing, changes in the geography of exporting and importing nations, and growth in competition on the market. There is expected to be a fall in capital expenditure and water consumption by 15–20% and expenditure on reagents and energy to process minerals by 30–50%; the productivity of processing and enrichment facilities will increase by 10–40% and the level of useful component extraction will increase significantly.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Environmentally safe and energy saving processing and re-use of production waste to create articles, materials and valuable components
The application of equipment for environmentally safe and resource-efficient processing of production waste, generating goods and materials and valuable components will provide an opportunity to engage in the use of inactive reserves of minerals, poor ores, and metallurgy waste, and to reduce the amount of metal lost in dumps of unpayable ore and old waste from processing companies. Aside from this, the introduction of new developments will help to reduce the level of environmental pollution, in particular by minimising the area used for storing and disposing of waste on industrial land, which can eliminate the risk of highly toxic com pounds entering the soil, waste water and the atmosphere.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Useful next-generation component pre-concentration systems
New generation useful component pre-concentration systems are aimed at enriching minerals by various methods (gravitational, magnetic, electrical, flotation, bacterial, chemical, impulse, radiation and radiothermal, concentrated and insitu leaching methods, etc.). In particular, one of the technological objectives is to enrich material contained in manmade dumps and tailings up to an industrial concentration of a useful component. The further development of such technologies will create conditions to increase industrial supplies of mineral raw materials by bringing into service deposits with low metal content ores. Wider use of solid pockets of minerals will bring about an overall reduction in the value of extracted ore. The effectiveness of work by metallurgical and chemical companies which use enriched raw materials will increase together with the level of extraction of useful components of certain types of minerals; the amount of waste and raw materials loss will decrease.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Reorganization of the Economic System
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Global Population Movement, Expansion of Urbanization, World Population Growth, Enhancement in the Connectivity of the Global Economy, Emergence of Developing and Emerging Countries, Expansion of China's Global Influence, Spread of New Economic System, Change in the Structure of the Labor Field, Continuing Low-growth Risk in Developed Countries, Invigoration of Greenomics, Shift in Manufacturing Paradigm, Change in Market Pattern.
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Environmentally safe and energy saving systems for integrated and deep processing of minerals
The introduction of environmentally safe and resource-efficient processing and recycling of communal waste generating secondary raw materials and end products will dramatically reduce the use of sites for the dumping of solid household waste, which will lead, on the one hand, to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale and, on the other hand, the replacement of a portion of traditional fuels. The waste processing and recycling market will grow actively, and correspondingly there is expected to be growth in the market for construction materials made from secondary raw materials.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Systems to provide automated control of the state of vehicles and infrastructure
New technical methods and automated systems to monitor the state of vehicles and infrastructure and oversee their maintenance and repair will make it possible to generate integrated analytical assessments of the level of technological safety and to create a single multi-level vehicle control system. By optimising repair and re-construction schedules for infrastructure it will become possible to reduce the risks associated with operating transport systems without appreciably worsening the operating conditions of traffic flows. The introduction of new products can help to significantly increase the level of safety on transport, optimise road traffic and reduce the degree of wear on key resources. Knowledge of the operations of transport systems and infrastructure in difficult climatic and geological conditions, including Arctic and sub-Arctic zones, could be a competitive advantage for Russian workers and manufacturers.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
New materials for vehicles and infrastructure
Progress in the field of new materials for vehicles and infrastructure is not possible without technological breakthroughs in material engineering. Special attention will be paid to developing composite materials, metal alloys and metal-ceramics with nanoadditives, nanocoated parts to be used in aggressive environments, metal-polymers and polymer composite materials, carbon fibres with enhanced strength, heat and impact resistance, as well as new types of synthetic lubricants. The use of innovative construction materials in the rolling stock of prospective forms of rail, road and water transport will make it possible to reduce fuel expenditure by up to 20%, increase the safety of using structures and constructions during the planned service timeframe, increase their service life, and decrease environmental pollution by almost twofold.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Energy-efficient and safe next-generation vehicles and systems
The creation of effective and safe next-generation vehicles and systems fits into the current developmental trends of this field to increase energy efficiency, comfort and safety. Vehicles entirely stripped of traditional internal combustion engines are likely to appear in the short term: electric vehicles equipped with high power electrical energy stores, including with a subsidiary electricity generator, or electric vehicles based on fuel cells. It is expected that this product group will achieve leading competitive positions on the market by 2022–2025. By this time conditions will be right for the development of distributed electricity generation based on renewable energy sources and “smart” grids. Electric vehicles will be able to use distributed means to store electrical energy, cover peak electrical loads, reserve power and improve power quality. There may even be a transition to other sources of energy (for example, natural gas or hydrogen), which will bring about an increase in the competitiveness of renewable energy and will support the conservation of non-renewable fossil fuel resources. The structure of the resource base will change for the automotive industry: demand for black metal will fall and demand for polymer materials and aluminium alloys will increase.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Approaches and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment
The speed of development of methods and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment, aimed primarily at reducing harmful emissions, will increase rapidly. Aside from this, new products will make it possible to reduce fuel costs for passenger transport, noise levels and increase flight safety. By 2030, it is expected that the aviation market will see the emergence of aircraft with improved key characteristics: accident rates will reduce by 8.5 times compared with 2010 levels, fuel costs and CO2 emissions will fall by 1.6 times, NOx emissions will drop by 1.8 times in terms of ICAO standards, and noise levels will be lower by up to 30 dB in terms of ICAO standards. In the period up to 2020, products will appear which fully satisfy future ICAO standards setting strict demands on the environmental factors of air trans- port.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation carrier rockets
Next-generation carrier rockets making wide use of new polymer composite materials (composite proportions 20% higher than in the Proton-M rocket) will have better characteristics compared with existing counterparts by almost twofold. A distinguishing feature of these carrier rockets will be modularity. Such a construction concept firstly helps to simplify delivery of a ready-made product to the launch site by rail transport; secondly, it makes it possible to create a whole family of carrier rockets – from light (based on a single first stage module) launching a ground payload of 1.5 tons into low-earth orbit, to very heavy (up to 50 tons). With the introduction of such systems it will be possible to place payloads of over 50 tons into an orbit of 200 km, which increases the opportunities for space tourism allows to use modular carrier rockets to launch spacecraft to the Moon or nearby planets in the Solar System, and they could even be adapted for the development of deep space. One expected production benefit is linked to economies of scale: modular systems make it possible to move from modern small-scale or even individual production of rocket modules to medium-scale output.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation