Trends Identified

Increased Access to Technology

Commercial research and technology has begun to outpace that of governments in the development of new technologies. Many of the advances in goods, materials and technologies intended for civilian use (e.g. nuclear energy, biochemical medicine, or access to space and its associated technologies) will have potential applications in the development of weapon systems. This increases the possibility that non-state actors could gain access to advanced weapons or even WMD/E. The effectiveness of regulatory conventions intended to prevent the spread of potentially dangerous technologies will be reduced by increased access within the globalised marketplace. As world trade grows, norms regarding non-proliferation may become secondary to economic benefits. The threat of uncontrolled proliferation of weapon technology to non-state actors will increase as innovation, research and development, production, and distribution become more open and globalised.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Centrality of Computer Networks

A globally connected and networked world creates a universal availability of information. Technological innovation is rapidly delivering to the average citizen the benefit of a readily accessible vast collective knowledge and intellectual capital. However, with the significant advances in sensor networks and algorithms, there will be a growing capability for almost every aspect of a citizen’s life to be monitored by the state or other entities such as corporations.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Globalisation of Financial Resources

The financial networks and communication systems that manage the world’s critical resources are increasingly intertwined. The interconnected world creates greater opportunity for better management of global resources; it may also provide incentives for co-operation and multilateral approaches in addressing global issues. However, vulnerability to exploitation by non-state actors, ranging from international criminal networks to cyber criminals and terrorists, will increase. Attackers could target banking and financial institutions or communication systems. Additionally, as nations become increasingly interdependent, a negative economic event in one country could well be compounded globally as it spreads quickly to other markets.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Increased Resource Scarcity

Nations need increasing amounts of energy and raw materials to sustain growth and maintain an advantage in the globalised economy. Limited natural resources, supply vulnerabilities, and the uneven distribution of energy and resources increase the potential for conflict between importers, exporters and transit countries, particularly in politically unstable regions. Any nation that holds considerable oil, natural gas reserves or deposits of rare earth elements and other strategic materials43 might leverage its position both for political and economic purposes.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Decreasing Defence Expenditures

Governments faced with slow or non-existent growth, rising unemployment and increasing debt burdens will continue to have many competing priorities. Continuing volatility in financial markets might further slow global as well as national economic activity. Defence spending has continued to decline across the Alliance due to reduced economic growth, and the increasing emphasis on social programmes. There is a risk that, even if economic cycles turn more positive, public opinion may prevent some nations from reinvesting in defence. This will have a marked negative impact on defence capabilities in the future. The consequences of current and anticipated near-term reductions in Science and Technology (S&T) investment will have implications on longer-term force capabilities. These deficits could be offset by new, less expensive, and yet-to-be-developed technologies.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Environmental / Climate Change

Global environmental change and its impacts are becoming readily apparent and are projected to increase in the future. In some areas these changes could present benefits, such as less energy requirements for heating, longer growing seasons that allow increased agricultural production, and the opening of the Arctic for resource exploration and shipping traffic. However, these benefits are likely to be offset by negative effects elsewhere, including coastal inundation, desertification, deforestation and other ecological effects that will have a direct impact on the world’s fresh water and food. Water stress is expected to be the most inevitable near-term impact of climate change.49

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

Natural Disasters

The effects of natural disasters will become more devastating. Natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, meteor strikes) will occur with devastating impacts on humanity. Increased population and infrastructure in disaster prone areas will magnify the consequences of these natural disasters.

2013

Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report

NATO

More from less

The earth has limited supplies of natural mineral, energy, water and food resources essential for human survival and maintaining lifestyles. Data are revealing many of these resources are being depleted at often alarming rates. At the same time population growth_x000B_and economic growth are placing upward pressure on demand. The more from less megatrend explores how companies, governments and communities will discover new ways of ensuring quality of life for current and future generations within the confines of the natural world’s limited resources. Science, technology, business processes, government policy, lifestyle patterns and cultural norms will all play a role.

2012

Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live

Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Going, going, ... gone?

Many of the world’s natural habitats, plant species and animal species are in decline or at risk of extinction. The actions taken by human beings in the coming decades will set the scene for global biodiversity over coming millennia. The going, going ...gone? megatrend explores the perilous situation of the world’s ecological habitats and biodiversity. This megatrend also captures the issue of greenhouse
gas emissions and climate change. Much in the natural world, that humans value and depend upon, is at
risk of being lost forever. However, there is a positive story and a potentially bright future. The megatrend is purposefully posed as a question. Whilst the state
of biodiversity is in decline and the pressure is rising so too is the human response.

2012

Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live

Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

The silk highway

Coming decades will see
the world economy shift from west to east and north to south. Rapid income growth in Asia and, to a lesser extent, South America and Africa will see billions of people transition out of poverty and into the middle income classes. The powerhouses of the new world economy are China and India. This economic shift will build new export markets, trade relations, business models and cultural ties for Australia. Tourists, funds and ideas will increasingly ow out of Asian countries and into Australia’s economy and society. We are stepping into the Asian Century.

2012

Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live

Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)