Trends Identified
Forever young
The ageing population
is an asset. Australia and many other countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have an ageing population. Elderly citizens provide a wealth of skills, knowledge, wisdom and mentorship. Nevertheless, there are some challenges associated with an ageing population and associated demographic trends. Two of these challenges include Australia’s widening retirement savings gap and rapidly escalating healthcare expenditure.
This will change people’s lifestyles, the services
they demand and the structure and function
of the labour market.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Virtually here
This megatrend explores what might happen in
a world of increased connectivity where individuals, communities, governments and businesses are immersed into the virtual world to a much greater extent than ever before. We are increasingly moving online to connect, to deliver and access services, to obtain information and to perform transactions such as shopping and working. Online retail and teleworking in Australia are forecast to grow rapidly with impacts on labour markets, retail models, city design and transportation systems. Digital media is allowing people to form new connections and selectively access information through multiple channels with subsequent erosion
of trust in traditional information sources.
The digitally connected world is virtually here.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Great expectations
This is a consumer, societal, demographic and cultural megatrend. It explores the rising demand for experiences over products and the rising importance of social relationships. This megatrend also captures the expectation people have for personalised services that meet their unique needs and wants whilst being delivered en masse. This megatrend has implications for the Australian retail sector and human service delivery systems of government and private sector organisations. People of the future will have expectations for more personalised, better and faster services. They will seek higher-end experiences due to income growth and the oversupply of_x000B_mass consumables. Social relationships will hold increased importance given the potential for social media and digital communication burnout and the desire for face-to-face interaction. Conversely, for the billions of impoverished people in the world the expectations are still for the basic necessities of life such as water, food, clothing, shelter and personal security. Many will have great expectations, but many will still have basic expectations.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Globalisation
The rapid convergence between the E7 (emerging seven economies of China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey) and the G7 (global seven economies of Unites States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Canada and Italy) has been accelerated by the global financial crisis. In 2007, total G7 gross domestic product (GDP, a country’s total economic output) at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP, the purchasing value in the local economy) was still around 60 percent larger than total E7 GDP8, yet by the end of 2010, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC, a global consulting firm) estimates the gap had shrunk to around only 35 percent. The catch-up process is set to continue over the next decade: by 2020 total E7 GDP could already be higher than total G7 GDP.
2012
The future
Steria
Economies
At the same time, and as a direct consequence of this population growth, we are forecasting that our global economy will triple in size by 20501 and is set to have doubled to over $130 trillion in just 20 years’ time, in 20302. Much of this growth is amongst the emerging economies (E7) of the world, including China, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia. As a consequence, by 2019 the E7, emerging seven major economies, will be a larger economic bloc than the G7 countries who have led the world economically and to a great extent, politically for the past 60 years. By 2050 China will have the largest economy with a GDP of over $24 trillion whilst the United States’ economy is expected to reach £22 trillion and India the third largest economy at $8 trillion.
2012
The future
Steria
Population
We are confronted by the evidence of our rapidly changing world every day and are contributing to its change each in our own way. In the past 50 years, we’ve doubled the number of people alive on our planet, reaching seven billion people at the end of last year. In the next 40 years we are expecting over two billion more people to be alive than today.
2012
The future
Steria
Urbanisation
20 of the world largest 50 cities will be in Asia by 2025, up from only eight in 2007. In 2010 the urbanisation of the world reached 50 percent and it is expected that by 2030, six out of ten people will be city dwellers, which is double the number back in 1950. By 2050 it’s forecast that 70 percent, of the then nine billion people, will live in cities.
2012
The future
Steria
Energy
Global economic growth, prosperity and rising populations will push up energy needs over the coming decades and as a consequence, governments are introducing measures to drive investment in efficient and low-carbon technologies. The Fukushima nuclear accident, turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa and a sharp rebound in energy demand in 2010 which pushed CO2 emissions to a record high, highlight the urgency and the scale of the challenge.
2012
The future
Steria
Environment
To stabilise the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million (ppm), which was the target set by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will cost $542 billion per year, every year till 2030, according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO).
2012
The future
Steria
Business models
A lot has happened in the past few years to shake-up the historical assumptions that underpin companies and their business models. The global economic meltdown and lingering sovereign debt crisis are foremost amongst these changes, which have combined with issues surrounding global climate change, the price of oil, energy and food and longer and more complex supply chains, even access to talent during the downturn84. The result, in short, has been a sea change, against which Chief Executives (CEOs) have seized upon creativity as the necessary life raft for their organisations.
2012
The future
Steria