Trends Identified
The Constituents of Power
Power is the ability to influence others. The constituents of power will continue to comprise a mix of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ elements.229 Hard power is military, economic and some elements of diplomatic activity that can be used to coerce or pay others to change their behaviour. Soft power is the power of attraction based on culture (when it is pleasing to others), values (when they are attractive and consistently practiced), and policies (when they are seen as inclusive and legitimate).230 Soft power is at its most effective when under-pinned by hard power. The degree to which a state or group can combine hard and soft power into an amalgam of effective statecraft will determine their ability to achieve strategic objectives. Some states, especially in Europe, are already reluctant to use the military element of hard power. This trend towards a post- military society is likely to remain strong, but not irreversible. The ability of the Western liberal democracies to utilise power is likely to be challenged by the rise of alternative power bases in Asia, in particular in China and India. Moreover, all elements of power are likely to be wielded by a broader spectrum of actors and agencies, even by organised criminal, terrorist and insurgent groups.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Role of the State
The state will remain the basic unit in international relations, although it will face challenges and the authority vested in it will vary. Most states will retain authority over the full spectrum of activities, whereas others, such as those in the EU, will voluntarily divest some to regional or supranational authorities. Others, such as some states in Africa, will have little practical authority. Transnational movements and groups will remain influential and are likely to further erode some aspects of state power. The varying levels of authority will complicate the ability of states to achieve and sustain multilateral partnerships and agreements.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Differing Political Systems
Any assumption that Western liberal values and processes would become the global norm has already been severely challenged. Out to 2040, there will be an era of competing political systems, ranging from liberal democracy through to autocracy and theocracy. Tension between regions, states and nationalist identities, and corruption among ruling elites, are likely to constrain the spread of democracy. Liberal democracies will still dominate in the West. However, the arguments of some democratic movements may not be perceived as strong enough to solve the problems in some developing states that maintain, or turn to, more autocratic or authoritarian political systems. The populations of some states may favour stability, the promise of economic growth and limited de-regulation at the expense of fully representative government. Political systems based on tradition, be it ethnic, tribal or religious, are likely to remain features of the global political system, as are dictatorships.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Access to technology that enables the production and distribution of WMD is likely to increase. Many states will feel that they require the prestige and deterrent value of WMD systems to reinforce their regional power.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Commercial Imperative
Global economic growth, resource pressure in its widest sense and increasing socio-economic dependency ratios will fuel demand; creating opportunities for innovation and investment. Development is increasingly likely to be directed towards commercial imperatives. For example, business enterprises accounted for 68% of OECD Research and Development (R&D) expenditure.233 This aspect will drive innovators to identify maximum applications and markets for their discoveries, with interdisciplinary R&D likely to lead to the most revolutionary outcomes.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Advances in Simulation
Advances in social science, behavioural science and mathematical modelling will combine, leading to more informed decision making. Advanced processing techniques and computational power will permit a more comprehensive level of modelling, potentially enabling more effective pattern recognition. This is likely to improve the identification, representation and explanation of systems and processes. As a result, simulation will become an increasingly powerful tool to aid policy and decision makers. Simulation will also blur the line between virtual and real environments.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Transnational Extremism
Transnational armed criminal, terrorist or insurgent groups, experienced in conflicts around the world will be part of the strategic landscape. Many extreme political groups will have a transnational following, and may increasingly employ sophisticated methods of coercion, including cyber attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). They will remain highly unpredictable and a continued cause of tension and instability especially in regions that have underlying governance and economic problems, such as in sub-Saharan Africa and possibly Latin America. Most will demonstrate features associated with organised criminality, terrorism, disorder and insurgency, fuelled by perceived or actual grievances. There is likely to be an increased sponsorship of irregular activity by states, seeking to utilise and exploit, through proxies, gaps in the international system, either to assert themselves or to secure advantage without exposing themselves to state-on-state risks. Acts of extreme violence, including mass casualty attacks, will continue to be used by groups with sophisticated networks and the ability to exploit the media in order to maximise the impact of the ‘theatre of violence’.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Weak States
Many states and some regions will fail to attain the necessary level of economic and political development to compete in a sustained and successful manner in the global economy. These states are likely to be beset by a mixture of environmental, demographic, economic and political pressures with consequent impact on their stability and security. They can be regarded as weak states. Some weak states may fail completely, with sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, regions of global concern. The degree to which weak states impact on others is likely to depend on the security of supply of strategic resources to the globalised economy and whether internal instability spreads to neighbours, either through migration or conflict. Responses to weak states are likely to include humanitarian assistance, containment and stabilisation.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Ungoverned Space
Some geographical regions, including weak states and rapidly growing cities, will not be subject to legal, legitimate or conventional administration. Where this occurs, power is likely to be wielded by groups ranging from warlords and armed criminal gangs through to traditional tribal or religious structures. Each region will be unique and engagement by outside powers will require an understanding of the individual context of the region. Some of these regions are likely to subsist through illicit trade and institutionalised criminal activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability. Many are likely to suffer conflict and be a source of instability in neighbouring regions. The risks associated with these spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the international system. Similarly, states that are unwilling or unable to invest sufficiently in maritime security, are unlikely to be able to patrol and enforce their jurisdiction and internationally binding maritime obligations in their territorial seas and economic zones. This may lead to activity stretching from maritime pollution, dumping of hazardous materials, illegal fishing, smuggling (of drugs, people and other forms of contraband) up to piracy attacks. This will be particularly important when an area of sea adjacent to a weak state encompasses key communication nodes, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Bab-el-Mandeb.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Non-State Actors
MNCs, large non-governmental organisations, as well as organised criminal groups, all work across the global stage. However, the authority of the state is likely to remain dominant. Non-State Actors are only likely to gain a similar degree of influence in areas where governance has broken down or is particularly fragile. Large MNCs, such as Gazprom, are increasingly state-owned and controlled, and other large corporations will have to work within the state based legislative framework if they are to gain access to resources and markets. While media and communication corporations may become ubiquitous global brands, the control by the state of the physical environment and operating space mean that it is unlikely that these corporations will have the means, methods or opportunities to usurp the power of the state. Non-governmental organisations, especially those associated with particular interests, will play niche roles and have influence within liberal democracies, but it is unlikely that their approaches of utilising the media, direct action and lobbying will have much impact on more authoritarian states.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence