Trends Identified
Environmental Impact
Water and air pollution, and soil degradation through acidification, contamination, desertification, erosion, or salination will remain problems, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising states.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is likely to become prized as research into the extent and variability of different forms of life yield significant technological and health advances. On land, diversity will be reduced as a side-effect of mass agricultural production techniques, industrialisation, urbanisation and through continued erosion of natural habitats, especially tropical rainforests.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Geophysical Risks
Between 1980 and 2000, 75% of the world’s population lived in areas affected by a natural disaster and, since 1998, around 500,000 people have been killed by earthquake activity alone,195 with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami accounting for over 40% of this total. Population growth, urbanisation in geophysically unstable regions, variable construction standards, and limitations of predictive and warning mechanisms suggest that casualty figures of this magnitude will be typical out to 2040. Demands on land usage will lead to increasing habitation in areas of significant risk, such as those susceptible to volcanic and seismic activity or low-lying coastal areas subject to inundation by tsunami. The net result is likely to be an increase in the scale of humanitarian crises and associated migration pressures.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Resource Nationalism
Resource nationalism is state control or dominance of particular resources, especially energy, and the use of this power to achieve national political objectives. In 1978, international companies controlled production from 70% of oil and gas reserves; at present they control only 20% with national or state-dominated oil companies controlling access to 75% of proven conventional reserves.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Exploitation of Extreme Environments
The search for alternative sources of energy, minerals, food and water, enabled by the assured transfer and access to information, will become more urgent. Consequently the exploration of extreme environments such as: space; the Polar regions; the deep ocean; and deep underground regions is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Technological Innovation
Diminishing availability of low cost, easily accessible hydrocarbon resources, and the need to reduce carbon emissions, will stimulate intensive research to find alternative forms of energy, although a rapid decline in hydrocarbon use is unlikely.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic Globalisation
Globalisation, based on persistent technological innovation, is likely to remain the most significant driver of long- term economic change. Nevertheless, liberal trade and investment policies that have accelerated globalisation since the end of World War II will be subject to periodic challenge, and may be temporarily reversed.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Material Expectations
Material expectations, fuelled by access to increasingly globalised communications and media, will be heightened by continued global economic growth, and by visibility of high standards of living in affluent states. Visible marginalisation, economic inequality and a sense of grievance, where they occur, are likely to increase in significance and become major political issues, possibly based around transnational agendas that advocate violent activism.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Global Trade
When the global economy grows, and the majority of major economies participate in that growth, a significant backlash against trade liberalisation is unlikely and international trade will grow.211 However, trade growth may be temporarily reversed in response to periodic economic, resource or financial crises. Moreover, environmental crises and rising transportation costs, linked to climate change and high energy prices, may lower, or even reverse trade growth, especially in manufactured goods.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
System of Global Economic Governance
The contemporary global economy bears little resemblance to the fragmented post-World War II period when the current global economic governance regime was constructed. Although institutions created 60 years ago have adapted, the IMF and the World Bank are struggling to become representative and to remain relevant. Efforts to develop global institutions that are structured, funded, and empowered to act as a stabilising force for international financial markets will continue.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence