Trends Identified
Increased Resource Scarcity
Nations need increasing amounts of energy and raw materials to sustain growth and maintain an advantage in the globalised economy. Limited natural resources, supply vulnerabilities, and the uneven distribution of energy and resources increase the potential for conflict between importers, exporters and transit countries, particularly in politically unstable regions. Any nation that holds considerable oil, natural gas reserves or deposits of rare earth elements and other strategic materials43 might leverage its position both for political and economic purposes.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Natural disasters
Natural disasters will have increasing impact, partly due to overall increases in the severity and prevalence of severe weather events, but also due changes in the regions and times of year where these events may occur.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Natural gas from unconventional deposits and with unconventional extraction conditions
Natural gas from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions (shale, water-dissolved, gas from other low-permeability formations and deep beds, coal methane, gas hydrates) is unique for its lower mineral content per unit area and higher development costs compared with traditional reservoirs. Unconventional gas resources are estimated at about 950–1200 trillion m3 (excluding gas-hydrates and water-dissolved gas, which increase this value considerably) and are more than double the volume of traditional resources.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Natural-resource scarcity
Natural-resource scarcity affecting water, food supplies, energy, and minerals. Also changes in demand and technological innovations.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Molecular economy
Nature is clean, efficient and distributed — why is manufacturing not so? There is a revolution in the making. In 2017, IBM Research discovered a way to store one bit of digital information in a single atom*, a density that would allow the storage of Apple’s entire 26-million-song music catalog on a device the size of a coin. Researchers at the UK’s Durham University used light-activated motorized molecules† to drill into cancer cells, destroying them in 60 seconds; animal testing will follow. And, Dubai wants to 3-D-print 25% of its new buildings‡ by 2030. In this revolution, physical, digital and biologic systems converge to create clean, efficient and distributed production processes.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY
Disease outbreaks
Ncidence rates of HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) have fallen since 2000 (Figure 19), and the number of deaths due to various types of infectious diseases, including parasitic diseases and respiratory infections, declined globally from 12.1 million in 2000 to 9.5 million in 2012.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Babel-Fish Earbuds
Near-real-time translation now works for a large number of languages and is easy to use.
2018
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018
MIT Technology Review
The Internet as Subject of Democratic Engagement
Nearly all democratic theories characterise democracy as an open-ended, necessarily incomplete and dynamic project. Its concrete form varies over time and across regions; and the scope of self-determination may shrink or expand even if its legal framework may remain unaltered. However, when we think of the relationship between democracy and the Internet, we often focus on rather traditional forms of democratic engagement and control. This may concern, for example, new opportunities for participation or more transparency and accountability in political decision- making. Yet, if we regard the Internet as a mere tool for political action, we risk overlooking that and how digital technologies and democratic practices mutually influence each other and thereby create something new.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Companies will speed up diversifying their workforce — or will be made to.
Nearly five years after they started publishing diversity reports, few companies have actually made material progress in hiring and retaining a more diverse workforce. That’s because besides being more open about their shortcomings, they’ve mostly kept recruiting the same old way, says Jopwell CEO Porter Braswell. Now’s the time employers humble themselves and ask for help, he says: “They’ll be recruiting with a different mindset, not looking to check every item off a list.” That’s driven by two factors: short term, the labor market is tight and talent at a premium. Long term, “by 2040, the majority of people in the U.S. will be people of color,” Braswell reminds us. Companies that don’t change will become irrelevant to workers and customers. And they may not even have the option: in the U.K., after the success of mandatory gender pay gap disclosures that started in 2018, the government is considering forcing companies to reveal their ethnic pay gap as well — and their action plan to close it.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Growing abroad: East meets west
Nearly half the CEOs interviewed for our survey are involved in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, but the stereotypes of acquiror and target are set to change.
2007
10th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC