Trends Identified
Frontier Disputes
Out to 2040, the position of international boundaries and frontiers is likely to be a source of tension. These tensions will either be between two opposing states, or, by an existing ethnic or nationalist group whose historic territories are divided by an international border. Most frontier disputes are settled amicably through legal arrangements. For example, in 2008 Russia and China settled a century old dispute regarding their Amur River border. However, other frontier disputes are less liable to be settled amicably, especially where ethnic differences are aggravated by inequality and also historical antagonism, and where access and ownership of scarce resources are involved.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The next frontier in power and commerce: Outer space
Outer space has emerged as a new strategic arena. Competition among countries to project power through space is intensifying as technological advances and growing commercial interests make outer space more accessible. These advances hold the promise of resource exploitation and territorial claims for human settlements. There are early parallels between what is happening in space and what happened in the seas in the colonial era. While these parallels hint that developments in space might be disorderly, they also suggest how nations could work together in the next frontier—through global rules for the global commons.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Organs-on-chips
Outside of Hollywood special effects shops, you won’t find living human organs floating in biology labs. Set aside all the technical difficulties with sustaining an organ outside the body—full organs are too precious as transplants to use in experiments. But many important biological studies and practical drug tests can be done only by studying an organ as it operates. A new technology could fill this need by growing functional pieces of human organs in miniature, on microchips. In 2010, Donald Ingber from the Wyss Institute developed a lung-on-a-chip, the first of its kind. The private sector quickly jumped in, with companies such as Emulate, headed by Ingber and others from the Wyss Institute, forming partnerships with researchers in industry and government, including DARPA, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. So far, various groups have reported success making miniature models of the lung, liver, kidney, heart, bone marrow, and cornea. Others will certainly follow. Each organ-on-a-chip is roughly the size of a USB memory stick. It is made from a flexible, translucent polymer. Microfluidic tubes, each less than a millimeter in diameter and lined with human cells taken from the organ of interest, run in complex patterns within the chip. When nutrients, blood, and test compounds such as experimental drugs are pumped through the tubes, the cells replicate some of the key functions of a living organ. The chambers inside the chip can be arranged to simulate the particular structure of an organ tissue, such as a tiny air sac in a lung. Air running through a channel, for example, can then very accurately simulate human breathing. Meanwhile, blood laced with bacteria can be pumped through other tubes, and scientists can then observe how the cells respond to the infection, all without any risk to a person. The technology allows scientists to see biological mechanisms and physiological behaviors never before seen. Organ microchips will also give a boost to companies developing new medicines. Their ability to emulate human organs allows for more realistic and accurate tests of drug candidates. Last year, for example, one group used a chip to mimic the way that endocrine cells secrete hormones into the blood stream and used this to perform crucial tests on a diabetes drug. Other groups are exploring the use of organs-on-chips in personalized medicine. In principle, these microchips could be constructed using stems cells derived from the patients themselves, and then tests could be run to identify individualized therapies that are more likely to succeed. There is reason to hope that miniature organs could greatly reduce the pharmaceutical industry’s reliance on animal testing of experimental compounds. Millions of animals are sacrificed each year to such tests, and the practice provokes heated controversy. Ethical considerations aside, it has proven to be immensely wasteful—animal trials rarely provide reliable insights into how humans will react to the same drug. Tests done on miniaturized human organs might do better. Military and biodefence researchers see the potential for organs-on-chips to save lives in a different way. The simulated lung, and other devices like it, could be the next big step in testing responses to biological, chemical or radiological weapons. It isn’t possible to do this today, for obvious ethical reasons.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
From cost to collaboration: Redefining the value chain
Outsourcing (both supply chain and traditional back office functions)1 has been a regular feature of business life for many years. Through their responses to this survey, CEOs have indicated a marked shift in their motivation for using external suppliers, from simply as a mechanism to lower cost to a means of achieving a more strategic, collaborative framework. In tandem, CEOs tell us of an increasing trend to expand the scope of activity that is covered by outsourcing arrangements, from the traditional component supplies and IT infrastructure to other activities that, in the past, were held sacrosanct, including human resource management (HRM) and R&D.
2007
10th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Ballistic Missile Defence
Over 5,000 missiles with ranges from tens of kilometres to several thousand kilometres are now distributed across more than 20 countries. Concerns regarding missile proliferation have prompted a re-evaluation of treaty constraints. Ballistic missile proliferation is likely to continue through indigenous development of missile technology by technically adept emerging powers, and the import and local adaptation of systems procured through international markets.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Ageing and uneven population developments
Over the coming decades the overall population of the EU is projected to grow but it will be much older than it is now.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Dynamic technology & innovation
Over the coming decades, disruptive, as well as enduring innovations will change our lives and drive wealth. There is a positive power to innovation, as it helps to solve the major challenges facing humanity, for example providing water, food and healthcare for a growing and aging population, using resources more efficiently, or fighting climate change. The fields of biology, chemistry and pharmaceuticals hold particular promise in combating these challenges. In terms of patent applications, life sciences markets are increasingly shifting from the US to Asian countries, while national research clusters in Asia are beginning to flourish.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
The battle against extreme poverty will heat up.
Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty, and the global poverty rate is at its lowest level in recorded history. However, that trend may not continue into 2019 due to increasing poverty concentrations in areas like Sub-Saharan Africa, says Melinda Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. "We can’t always change the circumstances a child is born into, but we can invest in that child’s potential to thrive in spite of them by investing in their health and education,” says Gates. “Economists call health and education ‘human capital,’ because they’re proven to be the twin engines of economic growth.” Especially important, she argues, is investing in the health and education of women and girls. “Healthy, economically-empowered women are some of development’s best allies,” says Gates. “If the number of people trapped in poverty continues to decline, these women will be a big reason why.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The Role of Multinational Corporations
Over the last 30 years, industrial production has been de-centralised and geographically distributed in an unprecedented manner. Countries, regions, and firms have specialised in particular stages of a product’s manufacture in response to competition, internationalising the markets for goods, services and labour. Such specialisation requires large-scale transportation of components, and this has been facilitated by technological advances in transport and communications, and trade liberalisation.227 MNCs and out-sourcing have emerged as integrating factors in the globalised economy, producing networks of interdependence between states that are unprecedented in scale and pervasiveness. This integrating effort is likely to persist out to 2040. The rise of state-owned enterprises (5 of the 10 largest MNCs are currently state- owned by the Chinese, Brazilian and Russian governments) is likely to continue, as is the proportion of MNCs based in emerging rather than developed economies.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic Growth
Over the last 30 years, the global economy has grown at a rate of 3- 4% and output has increased 4-fold.199 There has been regional variation: the newly- industrialised Asian economies have raised output 12-fold, while the G7 group of industrialised states have had a 5-fold increase. However, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced only a 3-fold increase, despite more than doubling its population and potential workforce during that time.200 Growth in the global economy will continue, accompanied by general improvements in material well-being. However, economic growth, combined with the continuing rise in the global population, will intensify the demand for natural resources, minerals, and energy. When allied to demographic ageing and environmental and political challenges, the likely result is a reduction in global economic growth rates. This growth will continue to be uneven, fluctuating over time and between regions, with sub-Saharan Africa likely to lag behind other regions primarily because of governance challenges, linked to endemic corruption.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence