Trends Identified
Growing trade and risk of rising protectionism
Over the last decades, the world has witnessed the broadest and deepest wave of globalisation it has ever seen and levels of trade and foreign direct investment progressed apace. In 2025, the volume of trade is expected to double in comparison to 2005 with most growth coming from Asia. With the economic and financial crisis, these achievements could come under pressure and progress in the negotiations of the Doha Development Agenda of the WTO, essential for the EU prosperity, could be limited. The WTO anchors international trade and a global economy in an open rules-based system based on international law.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Individual empowerment
Over the next 15 to 20 years, continued giving from groups like the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will lift millions of people out of poverty, the report found, to the extent that the majority of the world's population will no longer be impoverished. This new wealth will produce millions more empowered individuals that will have the means to add to local and national economies. The report hedged slightly, however, because more empowered people will also have greater access to lethal weapons and networks, which is "a capability formerly the monopoly of states."
2017
4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Growing world population
Over the next 20 years, the world population will balloon by 1.4 billion people to 8.3 billion, up 20% (0.9% or 70 million people p.a.) from 6.9 billion today. In 1990, the world population was 5.3 billion.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Demographics
Over the next century, changes in the world’s demography – the characteristics and composition of the global population – are likely to be dramatic. This is not just about gross numbers; it is also about the age, lifespan, distribution and activities of people. The world’s population has climbed from 1.6 billion in 1900 to around 7 billion today, and is projected to exceed 8 billion by 2025 and perhaps 9 billion by 2050. Over 60 percent of the global population is likely to live in Africa and Asia by 2050.19 Approximately 70 percent of the growth is likely to occur in 24 of the world’s poorest countries.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Future mobility
Over the next decades, demand for mobility will further increase. Although in some geographical areas less transport is possible, in general people and goods will be moving more often, further and faster. Technologies servicing mobility needs are largely fossil fuel based and characterised by little inter-connectivity and inter-modality. The transport sector is currently characterised by a high degree of 'technology lock-in'; high investments in existing assets prevent the introduction of transformative solutions in the market.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Religion: 'Secularists will flatter to deceive'
Over the next two and a half decades, it is quite possible that those Brits who follow a religion will continue both to fall in number and also become more orthodox or fundamentalist. Similarly, organised religions will increasingly work together to counter what they see as greater threats to their interests – creeping agnosticism and secularity. Another 10 years of failure by the Anglican church to face down the African-led traditionalists over women bishops and gay clerics could open the question of disestablishment of the Church of England. The country's politicians, including an increasingly gay-friendly Tory party, may find it difficult to see how state institutions can continue to be associated with an image of sexism and homophobia. I predict an increase in debate around the tension between a secular agenda which says it is merely seeking to remove religious privilege, end discrimination and separate church and state, and organised orthodox religion which counterclaims that this would amount to driving religious voices from the public square. Despite two of the three party leaders being professed atheists, the secular tendency in this country still flatters to deceive. There is, at present, no organised, nonreligious, rationalist movement. In contrast, the forces of organised religion are better resourced, more organised and more politically influential than ever before.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
AI to Enhance EDGE Computing Power in IoT Systems
Over the past 12 to 18 months, the concept of EDGE computing to power the Internet of Things (IoT) applications, devices and systems surface has become a significant trend in the digital industry. The following factors have led to the a combination of EDGE Computing Power and IoT: · IT and technology providers, given their limitations, have had to decide how much processing power and computing resources to allocate from the cloud layer to the EDGE layer, particularly for applications that are highly Central Processing Unit (CPU) concentrated. · These providers aim to work alongside many sectors, industries, organisations to attain insightful analysis of specific, filtered data and nformation, via the use of machine learning and EDGE computing within IoT. · The collation of these significant amounts and types of intelligent data via smart sensors, actuators, servers, etc, for further analysis by EDGE and Cloud Analytics engines – instills confidence in decision makers to make the right moves. The aviation industry, for example, realises the power of the EDGE element and IoT together. By measuring and monitoring an aircraft’s performance, significant reductions in fuel and operational expenses and customer churn can be achieved. In 2017, SAS and Cisco announced the birth of their IoT Analytics platform, developed to enable analytics on devices at the edge of the network. Many industries see value in capturing and analysing data on the go, or in motion, rather than analyse data that was stored. Meanwhile, Huawei and Google have made efforts, in the last couple of years, to establish specific products to strengthen and enhance their IoT computing EDGE capabilities. In summary, the combination of AI/machine learning and EDGE within IoT systems allows IT and technology providers to: · Increase the running efficiency of their IoT operations via the gathering of intelligence from local data, particularly in locations where cloud connectivity is inconsistent. · As highlighted earlier, deliver real-time, fast predictions for critical IoT applications through machine learning processes that gather and process this data from devices and sensors. · Increase security of all types of sensor collected data via EDGE, with all privacy, security and compliance risks of these data fully eliminated. Juniper forecasts that the total number of connected IoT sensors and devices will exceed 50 billion by 2022, up from an estimated 21 billion in 2018. This growth, equivalent to 140% over the next 4 years, will be driven by EDGE computing services; increasing both deployment scalability and security. Incorporating powerful AI at the EDGE will enable faster processing, and analysis of IoT applications, and deliver improved data filtering, automation and workload distribution. We expect cloud corporates to potentially lead this space strongly, given their experience and background in AI. Related Research: The Internet of Things: Consumer, Industrial & Public Services 2018-2023
2019
Top Tech trends 2019
Juniper Research
Competing in an age of divergance
Over the past 20 years CEOs have witnessed tremendous upheavals as a result of globalisation and technological change. Both were core to our enquiries when we conducted our first Annual Global CEO Survey back in 1997. Since then, trade flows have quadrupled and global internet traffic has risen by a factor of 17.5 million.1 The twin forces of globalisation and technological progress have helped to boost living standards and lessen inequality between countries.2 And, in what’s perhaps the most remarkable achievement of all, they’ve lifted a billion people out of extreme poverty.3 But greater convergence has come with greater divergence, as CEOs have long predicted. In 2009, when we first asked CEOs about the risks associated with various global trends, 46% thought governments would become more protectionist; 73% expected other countries to challenge the G8’s dominance; and 76% anticipated a rise in political and religious tensions. And by the time we published our last survey in January 2016, most CEOs foresaw a world in which multiple beliefs, value systems, laws and liberties, banking systems and trading blocs would prevail (see Figure 1).
2017
20th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Development of multipolarity and The growing interdependence on unprecedented scale
Over the past decades, the world has moved from a bipolar to a multipolar and multi-actor world order with various power centres and a less certain global security situation. There is no reason to believe that multi-polarisation will not continue. Multipolarity means that there are fewer super states and more middle powers in world affairs due to the rapid economic growth of emerging economies, their increasing role on global markets and the share in foreign investments. Brazil, Russia, India and China together with South Korea, Turkey, Iran, Mexico and Nigeria are the emerging powers of today and tomorrow that make their voices heard on the global geopolitical scene.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Governance Challenges for the EU
Over the past few years, the EU has had to confront a series of crises that have put a lot of strain on its governance system and opened new fault-lines across European societies: sovereign debt issue, migration, Brexit, Ukraine, Russia's newfound assertiveness, terrorism. The outcome of the US elections will also have to be factored in over the coming months and years.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)