Trends Identified
Bioenergy grows
Bioreactors using algae modified through synthetic biology will likely allow firms to produce cheap fuels that use only sunlight and waste CO2 and water as inputs. Production costs for diesel and ethanol through this “green chemistry” could reach $0.30/L in sunny geographies. Since CO2 could become a valuable commodity as an input for bioreactors, carbon-emiting facilities might diversify into green manufacturing plants. Greener ways to process the oil sands are possible.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Bioplastic
Bioplastic is a new material that has all the functionalities of synthetic resins but can be naturally degraded by burial or long-term sun exposure. However, the production cost is still high and the material is not diverse enough to be widely used as synthetic resins. It is expected that the development of the bioplastic technology can make great economic contribution as well as solving environmental issues. Also, this technology would be helpful in moving to the bioeconomy by causing social environmental changes.
2012
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2012
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Digital Panopticon
Biometrics are already making exponential advances— technologies that were recently in the realm of science fiction now shape the reality of billions of people’s lives. Facial recognition, gait analysis, digital assistants, affective computing, microchipping, digital lip reading, fingerprint sensors—as these and other technologies proliferate, we move into a world in which everything about us is captured, stored and subjected to artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. This makes possible increasingly individualized public and private services, but also new forms of conformity and micro-targeted persuasion. If humans are increasingly replaced by machines in crucial decision loops, the result may lead not only to greater efficiency but also to greater societal rigidity. Global politics will be affected: authoritarianism is easier in a world of total visibility and traceability, while democracy may turn out to be more difficult—many societies are already struggling to balance threats to privacy, trust and autonomy against promises of increased security, efficiency and novelty. Geopolitically, the future may hinge in part on how societies with different values treat new reservoirs of data. Strong systems of accountability for governments and companies using these technologies could help to mitigate the risks to individuals from biometric surveillance. This will be possible in some domestic contexts, but developing wider global norms with any traction will be a struggle.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Bioinformatics
Bioinformatics involves storing, analyzing, modeling and sharing large amounts of biological data. Current applications of bioinformatics include DNA barcoding, new bioproducts (such as Millennium Asparagus and biodiesel), modeling disease outbreaks and personal genomics. Our capacity to analyze large amounts of data and our ability to affect traits in plants, animals and humans will increase dramatically. Consider the potential of a widespread medical device costing under $1,000 that sequences your genome, connects to online databases, profiles your genetic history and future, highlights your risk profile, and identifies opportunities to mitigate risks. Bioinformatics holds the promise of tailoring medical and drug treatments to the individual through preventative medicine, using biomarkers to model adverse drug reactions, and helping to understand the complex interplay between genetics and environment. Bioinformatics will fundamentally change the way we think of health care systems.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Inequality Ingested
Bioengineering and cognition-enhancing drugs widen the gulf between haves and have-nots
2018
The Global Risks Report 2018
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Bio-electric interfaces
Bioelectronic interfaces make it possible to integrate electronic devices with biological tissues (often membranes of nerve cells) to carry out vital processes and bodily functions under various conditions and environments. From a medical viewpoint this is necessary to achieve connections between implantable chips, bionic prosthetic limbs, implanted artificial sensory organs, and the electrodes of various biotechnical systems and medical devices. Electronic sensory organs are likely to be developed, as well as prosthetics made from new materials with increased compatibility.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is likely to become prized as research into the extent and variability of different forms of life yield significant technological and health advances. On land, diversity will be reduced as a side-effect of mass agricultural production techniques, industrialisation, urbanisation and through continued erosion of natural habitats, especially tropical rainforests.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Death of Trade
Bilateral trade wars cascade and multilateral dispute resolution institutions are too weak to respond
2018
The Global Risks Report 2018
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Big data
Big Data' loosely describes a set of technologies that deal with very large volumes of fast changing information, usually from a variety of disparate sources with substantial economic, scientific or public value. Currently data value chains are emerging across almost all sectors of the economy and society, as information technologies increasingly accompany most aspects of our life and society in general.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Big data, the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence
Big data and IoT are new digital developments that make it possible to optimize business operations and facilitate the creation of new products, services and industries. The possibility of collecting unlimited amounts of data through Internet-connected sensors and monitoring of the web and social media allows prediction of demand, estimation of rural incomes (based on mobile phone activity) and anticipation of civil unrest. While such technologies add to the existing toolkit for development, the availability of fine-grained and increasingly personal data also introduces new risks (see section D.2). Such technologies therefore merit attention from policymakers. In the last few years, artificial intelligence has become a major focus of attention for technologists, investors, governments and futurists. Since it was first proposed more than 60 years ago, artificial intelligence has experienced periods of progress but also of stagnation, when it has been virtually sidetracked while other technologies advanced exponentially. However, recent breakthroughs have led to major advances, driven by machine learning and deep learning, facilitated by access to huge amounts of big data, cheap and massive cloud computing, and advanced microprocessors (Kelly, 2016:38–40).Artificial intelligence now includes image recognition that exceeds human capabilities and greatly improves language translation, including voice translation through natural language processing, and has proved more accurate than doctors at diagnosing some cancers.
2018
Technology and Innovation Report 2018
UNCTAD