Trends Identified
Design the organization of the future
Big data and deep learning have transformed our ability to learn, and the next generation of technologies will undoubtedly bring even more possibilities. History has shown, however, that applying new technologies to existing processes and structures generally yields only incremental gains. To unlock the learning potential of new technologies, leaders need to reinvent the enterprise as a next-generation learning organization.Merely applying AI to individual process steps is not enough: To increase the ability of organizations to learn in aggregate, they must build integrated learning loops that gather information from data ecosystems, continuously derive insights using machine learning, and act on those insights autonomously, all at the speed of algorithms rather than the speed of human hierarchies. But organizations must not learn only on algorithmic timescales—they must also better understand and position themselves for the slow-moving forces, such as social and political shifts, that are increasingly transforming business. To learn on multiple timescales, leaders will need to design organizations that synergistically combine humans and machines. Algorithms should be trusted to recognize patterns in data and act on them autonomously, while humans should focus on higher-order tasks like validating algorithms, imagining new possibilities, and designing and updating the hybrid “human + machine” organization itself. This division of labor also requires rethinking human–machine interfaces so that humans can trust and productively interact with machines. Collectively, these imperatives demand a massive evolution of organizational capabilities and the creation of new “learning contracts” between employees and enterprises. Many of these principles are already being implemented in isolated domains, such as the operations of digital marketplaces. But to win the ’20s, the same principles must be applied to all parts of the organization in order to create a “self-tuning enterprise” that constantly learns and adapts to the environment. Such organizations must be designed with flexible backbone systems, evolving business models, and, above all, a new model of management—one based on biological principles such as experimentation and co-evolution, rather than traditional top-down decision making and slow cycle planning. Management needs to shift its emphasis from designing hardwired structures and procedures to orchestrating flexible and dynamic systems.
2018
Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the Next Decade
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Growing pressure on local and regional authorities to better understand society, use of big data in areas such as e-health and e-education
Big data analytics is aimed at making governments and companies more effective. The rejuvenation of public services should continue through the rapid implementation of services such as e-government, e-health, e-invoicing and e-procurement. This will lead to more and better digital services for citizens and enterprises across the EU and free resources in the public sector for innovative use.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Genomics, nanotechnology and synthetic biology could all create prevention solutions
Beyond the predictive benefits of personalized medicine, nano-driven sensors are offering earlier detection (e.g., needing fewer cells to spot cancer). These sensors will be paired with therapeutics to support early intervention, such as theranostics. Nanotechnology and synthetic biology may alleviate concerns about growing antibiotic resistance through solutions_x000B_to reduce the spread of bacteria or, more effectively, destroy it. Viral outbreaks are already being successfully contained by analyzing an individual’s DNA to detect pathogens. In the future, sensors and electronic records will facilitate this tracking, while synthetic biology may have a role in formula ng just-in- me vaccines.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Nanotechnology
Beyond its role in plastics, nanotechnology can also help accelerate fuel efficiency trends, through a combination of lowering the weight of vehicles and thus increasing efficiency, improving tire efficiency, and nanocatalysts that make fuel consumption more efficient.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Shift to global cooperation
Between today and 2030, the world will be characterized by increasing globalization, greater global complexity and technological advancement. Future problems will include international crises and serious risks of environmental pollution, affecting virtually every country in the world. These developments show how vulnerable the world is and will lead to a greater awareness of global responsibility.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Income growth
Between 2010 and 2020, the world’s bottom 40% will nearly double their spending power from US$3 trillion to US$5.8 trillion;
2015
SDG industry matrix
KPMG
Poverty
Between 1990 and 2002, global average incomes increased by approximately 21% and the number of people living in absolute poverty declined by an estimated 130 million; global child mortality rates fell from 103 deaths per 1,000 live births a year to 88; life expectancy rose from 63 years to nearly 65 years; an additional 8% of people in the developing world gained access to clean water; and an additional 15% acquired access to improved sanitation services.221 Economic growth is likely to lead to a continued reduction, albeit unevenly distributed, in absolute poverty.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Geophysical Risks
Between 1980 and 2000, 75% of the world’s population lived in areas affected by a natural disaster and, since 1998, around 500,000 people have been killed by earthquake activity alone,195 with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami accounting for over 40% of this total. Population growth, urbanisation in geophysically unstable regions, variable construction standards, and limitations of predictive and warning mechanisms suggest that casualty figures of this magnitude will be typical out to 2040. Demands on land usage will lead to increasing habitation in areas of significant risk, such as those susceptible to volcanic and seismic activity or low-lying coastal areas subject to inundation by tsunami. The net result is likely to be an increase in the scale of humanitarian crises and associated migration pressures.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
High energy density power systems
Better batteries are essential if the next generation of clean energy technologies are to be realized. A number of emerging technologies are coming together to lay the foundation for advanced electrical energy storage and use, including the development of nanostructured electrodes, solid electrolysis and rapid-power delivery from novel supercapacitors based on carbon-based nanomaterials. These technologies will provide the energy density and power needed to supercharge the next generation of clean energy technologies.
2012
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2012
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The Internet will grow ever more fragmented.
Besides the U.S.-China division, internet fragmentation is also happening in less obvious places, Oxford cybersecurity expert Emily Taylor explains. Europe’s global data protection regulation (GDPR) has led some companies to overreact and block their sites to European visitors. Other jurisdictions are following suit and considering data localization laws. “You're going to end up with cross-cutting national and regional laws that are reaching over their borders, making it very difficult for companies to comply,” Taylor warns. “People will just choose to be very limited in what they do and the audiences that they try to reach.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn