Trends Identified
The autonomous home
The trend toward decentralization of energy and other infrastructure will make homes more autonomous, but will make the need for coordination among systems even more crucial. Distributed energy systems will result in homes that can both contribute to and draw from the grid, but such innovations will be dependent on advances in energy production and storage. Unconstrained by traditional urban services, new homes could proliferate in areas well beyond urban planning control.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Health, inequality and well-being
The treatment of infectious diseases that affect the developing world disproportionately will be further compromised by growing antibacterial resistance. Non-communicable and neurological diseases are projected to increase sharply in line with demographic ageing and globalisation of unhealthy lifestyles. Inequalities will grow in many developed countries, as will poverty rates and the profiles of those at risk of poverty.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Custom cancer vaccines
The treatment incites the body’s natural defenses to destroy only cancer cells by identifying mutations unique to each tumor. Scientists are on the cusp of commercializing the first personalized cancer vaccine. If it works as hoped, the vaccine, which triggers a person’s immune system to identify a tumor by its unique mutations, could effectively shut down many types of cancers. By using the body’s natural defenses to selectively destroy only tumor cells, the vaccine, unlike conventional chemotherapies, limits damage to healthy cells. The attacking immune cells could also be vigilant in spotting any stray cancer cells after the initial treatment. The possibility of such vaccines began to take shape in 2008, five years after the Human Genome Project was completed, when geneticists published the first sequence of a cancerous tumor cell. Soon after, investigators began to compare the DNA of tumor cells with that of healthy cells—and other tumor cells. These studies confirmed that all cancer cells contain hundreds if not thousands of specific mutations, most of which are unique to each tumor. A few years later, a German startup called BioNTech provided compelling evidence that a vaccine containing copies of these mutations could catalyze the body’s immune system to produce T cells primed to seek out, attack, and destroy all cancer cells harboring them. In December 2017, BioNTech began a large test of the vaccine in cancer patients, in collaboration with the biotech giant Genentech. The ongoing trial is targeting at least 10 solid cancers and aims to enroll upwards of 560 patients at sites around the globe. The two companies are designing new manufacturing techniques to produce thousands of personally customized vaccines cheaply and quickly. That will be tricky because creating the vaccine involves performing a biopsy on the patient’s tumor, sequencing and analyzing its DNA, and rushing that information to the production site. Once produced, the vaccine needs to be promptly delivered to the hospital; delays could be deadly. —Adam Piore
2019
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 - How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review
The arrival of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles.
The transportation system is in transition. As old vehicles are replaced, the new ones will be more autonomous, smarter and more efficient. Autonomous wheelchairs and delivery vehicles, for example, may become available in hospitals, factories, warehouses and resorts. Although not yet fully autonomous, vehicles with “driver assist” are the new standard for public and personal transportation. Diagnostic tools that use AI will enable vehicles to service themselves by seeking oil changes, brake servicing – even cleaning. As vehicles become even more autonomous, their interiors could transform, allowing passengers to comfortably work or play while they move from place to place. And cars will sync with other devices (e.g., phone, computer, refrigerator) to simplify life even more. Accidents could still occur but identifying who is to blame (the manufacturer, the car’s AI designer or the owner) will become a challenge. All of these factors will contribute to new notions of vehicle ownership and liability.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Enhanced delivery systems
The transportation portion of industrial value chains will be dramatically more efficient, timely and automated. AI and robotic loading equipment will coordinate the movement of goods between transportation modes and systems, a factor that may foster a more competitive domestic manufacturing sector and keeps costs low. Lean and efficient business models characterized by “just-in- me” systems means responsive production and delivery of goods. For smaller deliveries, some vehicles may be displaced by programmable flying drones that can carry small packages between local destinations. These changes will have an impact on employment and on the sector’s overall contribution to gross domestic product.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
5th generation of mobile technology (5G)
The transition to the 5th generation of mobile technology (5G) will lead, according to experts, to a 100–1000 increase in data transmission speeds and throughput efficiency compared to 4G technologies used today. Noticeable improvements in other technical characteristics are expected, such as in coverage area, number of simultaneous connections, cost of expansion and power consumption of infrastructure, energy costs on subscriber’s device, and reliability and flexibility of connection. Despite the fact that the commercialisation of 5G technology is anticipated for 2020–2025 (shown by the dynamics of mobile communications in the last 20 years), corresponding standards and long-term programmes for research in the field are actively being developed now at international, national and corporate levels.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Shifting Political Structures
The transition of autocratic/theocratic regimes towards more democratic forms of government will continue. The Middle East and North African region has experienced political upheaval in recent years, dislodging pre-existing regimes in several countries. The ongoing transition of some older established autocratic/theocratic regimes to more democratic forms of government will be turbulent. Over the next decades, established regimes are likely to continue to face reform movements. While this may eventually lead to new participatory and more inclusive democratic structures, transitional nations will likely weather a period of social and political instability, and possibly political reversals. For example, the republics that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union are in the process of democratisation and have experienced similar issues. Fledgling democracies will require more time to mature and stabilise. During this period they are at a greater risk of setbacks and civil strife.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Active security protection
The traditional method of protecting computer systems involves the deployment of prevention mechanisms, such as anti-virus software. As attackers become more sophisticated, the effectiveness of protection mechanisms decreases as the cost increases. However, a new generation of security mechanisms is emerging that uses an active approach, such as hooks that can be activated when new types of attacks are exposed and machine-learning mechanisms to identify sophisticated attacks. Attacking the attacker is a technological possibility as well, but is almost always illegal.
2018
IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech: Top 10 Technology Trends for 2019
IEEE Computer Society
Theatre: 'Cuts could force a new political fringe'
The theatre will weather the recent cuts. Some companies will close and the repertoire of others will be safe and cautious; the art form will emerge robust in a decade or so. The cuts may force more young people outside the existing structures back to an unsubsidised fringe and this may breed different types of work that will challenge the subsidised sector. Student marches will become more frequent and this mobilisation may breed a more politicised generation of theatre artists. We will see old forms from the 1960s reemerge (like agit prop) and new forms will be generated to communicate ideology and politics. More women will emerge as directors, writers and producers. This change is already visible at the flagship subsidised house, the National Theatre, where the repertoire for bigger theatres like the Lyttelton already includes directors like Marianne Elliott and Josie Rourke, and soon the Cottesloe will start to embrace the younger generation – Polly Findlay and Lyndsey Turner.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Ecosystem revolution
The terms of competition are changing: as interconnected networks of partners, platforms, customers, and suppliers become more important, we are experiencing a business ecosystem revolution.
2017
The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress
McKinsey