Trends Identified
Trade, people, finance, and data: Greater global connections
The world is much more connected through trade and through movements in capital, people, and information (data and communication)—what we call “f lows.” Trade and finance have long been part of the globalization story but, in recent decades, there’s been a significant shift. Instead of a series of lines connecting major trading hubs in Europe and North America, the global trading system has expanded into a complex, intricate, sprawling web.
2015
The four global forces breaking all the trends
McKinsey
Trends in migration
The world is living in an era of unprecedented human mobility, in which international migration has reached record levels. The 2030 Agenda sees international migration as a multidimensional reality that is of major relevance for the development of countries of origin, transit and destination, and recognizes the positive contribution of migrants for inclusive growth and sustainable development. While today it has become easier, faster and more affordable for people to move, factors such as poverty, inequality, lack of decent jobs, conflicts and natural hazards compel people to leave their homes in search of better lives for themselves and their families.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
engaged aging
The world is getting older. Life expectancy has gone from 34 in 1913 to 67 at the turn of the millennium. By 2020, for the rst time in human history, the world’s population of people aged 65 and older will exceed the number of children under the
age of ve. And, the World Economic Forum estimates that the global cost of chronic diseases — driven largely by aging populations — will total US$47 trillion* between 2010 and 2030.
If demographics are destiny, it’s not hard to read what those numbers imply for our collective future.
Forget the millennials for a moment. The much bigger disruption is what’s about to happen at the other end of the demographic distribution: aging populations across much of the world. These trends threaten to overwhelm health care and pension systems, draining public coffers and crowding out other societal priorities, from education to defense.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY
An ageing global population
The world is facing an ageing population due to a combination of increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates. As dependency ratios shift with growing elderly populations, governments will be faced with falling saving rates, falling consumption, and growing pressure on social services. There are stark differences in demographic changes between developed countries and developing countries. In general, high-income countries are experiencing population stagnation or decline. Conversely, many developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are experiencing “youth bulges” and expansion of working-age population. Both demographic scenarios pose challenges for governments seeking to create policies that are economically sustainable and politically palatable.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The world is currently experiencing a major shift in health problems related to economic development and changing lifestyles. Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (such as HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases (such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes). Non-communicable diseases are also the most important cause of death in the world and are typically associated with developed-world lifestyles. But although communicable diseases are globally in decline, they still pose a significant health burden, especially in the developing world. A third factor in changing health conditions is the persistent threat of pandemics.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Polycentric World
The world is becoming increasingly interconnected and polycentric. Emerging technologies, improved communications and access to modern transportation create newly empowered actors that may compete with traditional ones. The exponential rise of information technology enables dispersed individuals to act as an effective organised group within a network. This could empower and embolden organisations, advocacy groups, security providers, criminal syndicates, extremists, or individuals to attempt to shape the outcomes of political, social, economic, and environmental issues.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Creating value in totally new ways
The world has benefited from the development of more general-purpose technologies in the past century than in the previous four combined. Consumers are embracing these advances ever more rapidly. The telephone took 76 years to reach half of all US households. The smartphone reached the same level of penetration in less than a decade.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Globalisation
The world economy’s centre of gravity will continue to shift east and southwards, and new players will wield more power, some of them states, some of them non-state actors (such as multinational enterprises and NGOs) and others newly emerging megacities. Driving and facilitating many of these shifts in power and influence is globalisation, which operates through flows of goods, services, investment, people and ideas, and is enabled by widespread adoption of digital technologies. But globalisation will inevitably face counter-currents and crosswinds, such as geopolitical instability, possible armed conflict and new barriers to trade.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Significant variations in employment outcomes continue to exist between regions and countries
The world continues to experience diverse trends in employment outcomes. Developed countries are expected to enter their sixth consecutive year of decreasing unemployment rates, falling to 5.5 per cent in 2018, the lowest rate since 2007. Yet many countries continue to report high rates of labour underutilization, with large shares of discouraged workers and growing incidence of involuntary part- time employment.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)