Trends Identified
A deteriorating American outlook
The World Bank expects the U.S. economy to grow at 2.2 percent in 2018, while many firms, like Goldman Sachs, expect equities to continue climbing, but that could change if there's a blowup in Washington. With Donald Trump's erratic and often offensive behavior, an ongoing special counsel investigation and an increasingly divided American public, domestic issues could get in the way of a continued bull market.
2018
6 global trends that can derail your portfolio in 2018
CNBC
Winners and Losers of Globalisation
The winners of globalisation are often said to be the millions in the emerging economies who have been lifted out of poverty in recent decades, together with those who were already rich and are now richer. The losers are said to be concentrated in the developed countries - the squeezed middle whose jobs, income and prospects have been hit.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Demographic Crunch
The West’s social welfare system is under serious threat, likely deteriorating over this period. China and other middle-income powers risk unsustainable health and pension costs in the next decade. Only raising retirement age and immigration will help mitigate aging and solve the skills gap, but immigration and retirement age increases are both politically sensitive.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Developing countries will dominate global trade
The weight of global economic activity is shifting from the G7 countries toward emerging economies. Over the next 50 years, this trend is expected to accelerate. On the most conservative projections, the economy of the G20 is expected to quadruple in size, rising from US$38 trillion in 2009 to US$160 trillion in 2060 in real dollar terms.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
We’re interacting with technology in very different ways
The way we interact with technology has changed dramatically in recent years – and is still changing. Thanks to smart phones and tablets, we can carry out a whole range of tasks on the move simply by touching a screen. Mobile web usage has increased to the point where, in 2016, it overtook web usage through traditional computers. Google has also confirmed that searches on mobile devices now outstrip desktop searches. We’re also talking to our devices, using voice searches via Siri and the like. Estimates suggest that, by 2020, 50 percent of all searches will be voice searches, and around 30 percent will involve no screen whatsoever. As a result, all kinds of businesses are gradually integrating their products with the likes of Siri, Alexa and Google Assistant. For example, Alexa is being integrated into BMWs from 2018. Virtual reality and augmented reality represent the next huge leap in interface innovation, transforming how businesses interact with customers.
2017
9 Technology Mega Trends That Will Change The World In 2018
Forbes
User interface
The way we interact with technology has a huge impact on our productivity. Key examples include the mouse, the touch screen, and most recently, voice communication systems like Siri. Connecting voluminous data and computational power with our physical and biological reality will become ever more seamless and sophisticated. User interfaces will become more natural and in tune with natural human behaviour.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
The business of applications: Software as a core competency in a digital world
The way we build software is changing. Mimicking the shift in the consumer world, organizations are rapidly moving from enterprise applications to apps. Yes, there will always be big, complex enterprise software systems to support large organizations, and it will still be necessary for IT developers to keep customizing those systems, providing updates, patches, and more. But now, as large enterprises push for greater IT agility, there is a sharp shift toward simpler, more modular, and more custom apps. The implications are significant for IT leaders and business leaders alike: they must soon decide not just who plays what application development role in their new digital organizations but also how to transform the nature of application development itself.
2014
Accenture Technology Vision 2014
Accenture
Birth and death: the drivers of demography
The way in which individuals organise at a societal, community or household level – fragmented along dimensions of gender, age, ethnicity or citizenship – are likely to trigger an evolution in how policies are carried out in the future. Demographic change, which is both a cause and a consequence of these evolving organisations and structures, therefore forms a cross-cutting issue. It is thought to be driven by many actors, including medical progress, sanitation, pandemics or conflict and economic conditions, as well as policy levers (Bongaarts, 2009a; Bongaarts, 2009b).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Capital Flows
The volume of cross-border capital flows, both net and gross, is likely to increase, maintaining a high-level of financial interdependence between states. Gross capital flows have increased markedly over the last 30 years. For example, turnover on the foreign exchange markets generates flows of several hundred trillions of dollars per year. However, the majority of these trades represent short term speculative flows rather than longer-term investments, and net international flows, as a proportion of global output, are smaller than at the turn of the 20th century.226 The tension between the interdependency created by capital flows, and the instability that can be generated by capital flight, will continue. Financial instability may be one trigger by which protectionist- minded populations force de-globalising policies onto reluctant governments.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Hydrogen society
The Vision: a future in which millions of individual players can collect, produce and store locally generated renewable energy in homes, offices, factories, and vehicles, and share their power generation with each other across a Europe-wide intelligent hydrogen energy web.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)