Trends Identified
Society and social trends
Just as population trends over a 20-year period tend to move quite slowly (with notable exceptions such as immigration) and are not on the aggregate susceptible to abrupt major changes of direction, societal trends also tend to develop their own momentum and can prove quite difficult to defect from past and current trajectories. The expansion of higher education, the growing participation of women in the labour market and the rising numbers of dependent elderly all seem set to become a permanent feature of the next couple of decades, although their combined effect on family formation, family interaction and intergenerational relations is hard to foresee. Conversely, future patterns of marriage and divorce or labour market participation among the elderly have the potential to spring some surprises in the years ahead.
2011
The Future of Families to 2030
OECD
Internet of things no longer about things
Just about every business will become an internet of things (IoT) business. The convergence of the digital and physical worlds makes this inevitable. When the products companies sell are connected 24/7/365, dynamic and ever-improving value can be delivered to customers throughout the product’s life cycle. This will become the norm. Therefore, launching a successful IoT business requires a fundamental shift, a transition from product-centric to service-centric business models. Companies looking to capitalize on IoT will become IoT service businesses. Operations dependent on one-time product sales will become obsolete as business value moves from products to the experiences they enable. This transformation will fundamentally change how businesses operate, interact with customers and make money. Those who recognize that the internet of things isn’t about things but about service will be positioned to meet these new customer demands, unlock new sources of revenue and thrive in this connected world.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Banking-as-a-Service Economy Emerges
Juniper expects the emergence of banking-as-a-service to be a key driving force in the world of finance in 2019. With PSD2 applicable as of January 2018, we expect 2019 to be the year that products based on the regulation’s open API requirements to have a significant effect on the market. Most particularly, this will enable new types of banking services to be offered by new players, who can handle the cross-platform requirements for banks unfamiliar with the technological requirements. The main opportunity here is for new technology-focused players to offer services across a wide range of new platforms. With compliance established in 2018, 2019 will see banks and technology players look beyond mere compliance and build on the opportunities the directive presents. The newer fintech start-ups stand to be the biggest beneficiaries of this development, as they can provide white-label services to a wide variety of financial institutions wanting to offer more services to customers. In time, this will extend to PaaS and SaaS providers more generally, as financial transactions becomes another form of secure data to transact through the cloud. As a result, we have seen Oracle among one of the early movers in this space; extending their cloud expertise into a new sector. This will also benefit banks, as it gives them more platforms through which to engage their customers. More types of product will give them a larger presence, and thus more ways to make their products more sticky to customers. However, the Open data requirements of PSD2 also means that consumers should benefit from increased competition as dedicated BaaS players emerge to serve customers, in the way that Monzo and other fintech companies have become prominent. Juniper expects that, while this movement has begun in Europe, later in 2019, other banking players will bring out BaaS services to customers. This will not be mandated, but a drive to increase competitive differentiation, and with the PSD2 as a de facto framework, a global BaaS market will form, although banks themselves will remain largely national. In tandem with this, we also expect IoT-based services to make an appearance in 2019. With several companies explicitly targeting this space already, it will become a key competitive benefit for several BaaS players. Related Research: Retail Banking: Digital Transformation & Disruptor Opportunities 2018-2022
2019
Top Tech trends 2019
Juniper Research
Storm the court
Judges will interpret—and define—new architectures.
2018
Top Policy Trends of 2018
PWC
Technology with Increasing Downside
Job churn moves up the skills ladder as robotics, artificial intelligence, and automation become widespread. Terrorists move into higher technology, with devastating effects. The United States will remain the overall tech leader, with China making inroads. Technology increases inequalities within and between nations.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Intensifying nationalism
Jean Crétien, Prime Minister of Canada at the time of its divisive referendum
on separation with Québec, wrote
that it took six months before wounds between Canada and Québec, even started to heal. And with 45% voting for independence, Scotland will be a divided country for some time to come.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The internet of “moving” things.
It’s not just vehicles; the transportation system itself may also transform. AI in cars and trucks will benefit from highway – and eventually city – roads that include sensors, reflectors, information transmitters and other tools that support autonomous vehicles. Although not all vehicles will be fully autonomous, the majority will at least be “linked” with each other and with traffic control systems to facilitate coordination and communication. This will greatly improve the efficiency of the system, allowing vehicles to move more quickly and, in some areas, travel in a highly coordinated manner that minimizes gridlock. But privacy could be an emerging issue, since all vehicles may now be monitored, mapped – and possibly even controlled – remotely. Trucking and rail transportation methods will continue to compete. Lighter rail cars and the availability of biodiesel means rail may compete more strongly with trucking; however, automated caravans of trucks equipped with sensors will increase the efficiency of the trucking system and reduce costs.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Debunking the Fabricated
It’s not as if fake news is a novel idea. But, it hogged the headlines in 2017 as fact and fiction got completely tangled (or, do we mean mangled?). Governments, industry participants and citizen-focused initiatives are already coming together to identify, reduce and prevent misinformation strategies and fake news in 2018. In light of recent incidents, the focus will be on quelling interference in political processes and social polarization efforts. Developments may lead to the segmentation of social media based on verified identities, pseudonyms, and anonymous environments.
2018
Top 10 Tech Trends For 2018
Forbes
Transforming: technology, innovation and talent
It’s evident that most businesses today, in defining what they stand for, recognise the needs of a wider set of stakeholders – and their customers’ expectations about how they address those needs. Translating a broader corporate purpose into the everyday, however, is another matter entirely. Even the most committed can find it challenging in the extreme to reshape their company while facing day-to-day battles on every front to fight off competition, grow revenues and cut costs. Putting technology to work: business leaders understand all too well how technology is transforming their relationship with customers as well as other stakeholders. So it makes sense that they see technology as the best way to assess and deliver on changing customer expectations, with 51% of CEOs making significant changes in this area (see Figure 11). The innovation edge Over half of CEOs ranked R&D and innovation technologies as generating the greatest return in terms of successful stakeholder engagement (see Figure 12). The winners in the innovation game, however, will be those that harness technology and innovation to deliver products and services that are cost-effective, convenient, functional and sustainable. The people edge As companies look to meet the complicated expectations of stakeholders and society, they will need a new generation of people with an entrepreneurial mindset who can harness technology and drive innovation.
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
The mobile payment race
It’s easy to think that the most inclusive and developed financial infrastructures will shape the future of mobile payments. In actual fact, it’s in emerging markets where the potential of mobile payments is being realized, as rapidly expanding smartphone penetration rates help mobile payments leapfrog relatively undeveloped financial infrastructures. Two payment providers in particular – Alipay and Apple Pay – are eyeing up this window of opportunity to establish themselves in these markets, and both services have the financial backing and technical know-how to seriously shake up the industry.
2018
Trends 18
GlobalWebIndex