Trends Identified
Climate change and resources scarcity
As the world becomes more populous, urbanised and prosperous, demand for energy, food and water will rise. But the Earth has a finite amount of natural resources to satisfy this demand. Without significant global action, average temperatures are predicted to increase by more than two degrees Celsius, a threshold at which scientists believe significant and potentially irreversible environmental changes will occur.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
Shift in global economic power
Some emerging economies that were growing rapidly are now in recession. Commodity prices have played a considerable role in sending these economies into reverse. Businesses that are investing, or already invested, in emerging economies will need to make a careful assessment of whether and, if so, how they should manage in these more volatile market conditions, where prospects look less certain today than they did even a few years ago.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
Demographic and social change
By 2030 the world’s population is projected to rise by more than 1 billion. Equally significantly, people are living longer and having fewer children. All countries will need to implement bold policies to cope with these demographic changes. Supporting an ageing population will require greater participation in the labour force from women and the elderly.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
Technological breakthroughs
The digital revolution has no boundaries or borders. It is changing behaviour and expectations as much as the tools used to deliver new services and experiences. But many of today’s largest and leading organisations and businesses developed in an era of scarce, expensive and rigid technology. Delivering change for them is a complex proposition. Born digital businesses are change ready.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
The rise of the global middle class
With regard to global and regional income distribution and associated societal developments, our research identified six major trends. First decreasing inequality between countries, second the rise of a new global middle class. Third, European and North American share of the global middle class fall significantly over the coming decades. Fourth, in addition, there is evidence that the middle class in these regions is on the decline. Fifth, the relation between inequality and the future strength and composition of the global middle class. Sixth, global middle-class growth will engender the flourishing of democratic and ‘self-expression’ values.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Growing and ageing population
The analysis of qualitative and quantitative data on demographic change helped identify three major trends as particularly relevant. First, the global demographic profile will be characterised by population growth, led by middle-income and lower-income countries, about which the literature and projections strongly agree. The second major demographic trend analysed in the literature has to do with population ageing, initially in high-income countries and subsequently in the rest of the world, starting with middle-income countries. The literature points to a third trend that is likely to develop in the European Union and other developed economies in the future, namely transformations in the structure of families and household sizes.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Employment and the changing labour market
Four major trends have been identified with regard to employment and associated labour market developments. First, global population growth and population ageing are projected to have a significant impact on the workforce in the future. The second trend analysed focuses on the changes in labour force participation and growing vulnerabilities in the work place. The third major trend that resonates strongly in the literature concerns the diverging demand and supply of skills and patterns of employment creation. Finally, the working environment will be influenced by technological developments. New modes of production and manufacturing technologies are expected to advance further.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Evolving patterns and impacts of migration
migration will continue to be a complex phenomenon, with a variety of factors influencing people’s decision to migrate (provided their decision is voluntary) and evolving diversity in patterns and types of migration. internal migration will continue to be closely related to urbanization. There is global evidence that while migration from developing to developed countries remains strong, there are signs that migration to Europe and the United States is decreasing, with uneven reductions across different countries (Development Research Centre on Migration, 2009; OECD, 2011c). Looking ahead, some authors argue that an ageing Europe in need of inward migration to counter the decline in labour force may end up competing for migrants not only with other Western nations, but also with the emerging economies (see Fargues, 2008), although demographic change varies in impact and speed across EU countries.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Connected societies, empowered individuals?
Trends in connection, education and empowerment are interlaced in multiple ways and act as drivers, multipliers and indicators of progress towards addressing societal challenges. Overall, six major trends are identified in this report.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
People and behaviour: we move in mysterious ways
The notion that individuals are gradually becoming significant drivers of change has been widely reported, particularly in the popular media. In 2006, Time magazine elected ‘You’ (the individual) as person of the year – before the boom in social media and before the Arab Spring revolts, more recent events that reinforce the perception that people, their beliefs and behaviours may increasingly interact with the international and EU landscape. On the one hand, the use of ICTs for censorship in certain states and declining participation level in Western elections suggests that the keynote of this development is divergence. On the other hand, there is a commonly stated expectation that globalisation acts as an integrative and harmonising force and that we should witness a convergence of values affecting how people think and behave as a result. The emergence of a common ethos would influence some of the themes we discussed earlier, including the identity and values of the middle class, declining fertility levels, the diffusion and the use of technologies and migration flows. Yet, the evidence also points to potential divergence in values, as embodied by grassroots populist movements, online activism focusing on specific causes and political or religious extremisms.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation