Trends Identified
Gender equality: a pervading driver of change?
As a cross-cutting driver, gender is affecting several income groups and societies, particularly insofar as inequality is concerned. While each could be seen as an outcome of other societal developments (eg economic growth, value changes), there are several developments that could be seen as driving closure of the gender gap, for example, women’s growing involvement in politics, increasing educational attainment and labour market participation. Attitudes towards gender equality itself are likely to affect several policy areas in the future, owing to their relation with a variety of unpredictable factors such as fertility levels, migration flows and individual empowerment. For example, according to the EUISS, gender equality is one of the main drivers behind individual empowerment and the emergence of the global middle class, through the near-universal access to education and the empowering effects of ICT (EUISS, 2012).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Birth and death: the drivers of demography
The way in which individuals organise at a societal, community or household level – fragmented along dimensions of gender, age, ethnicity or citizenship – are likely to trigger an evolution in how policies are carried out in the future. Demographic change, which is both a cause and a consequence of these evolving organisations and structures, therefore forms a cross-cutting issue. It is thought to be driven by many actors, including medical progress, sanitation, pandemics or conflict and economic conditions, as well as policy levers (Bongaarts, 2009a; Bongaarts, 2009b).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Urbanisation: bigger, better, faster – dirtier, unhealthier, lonelier
As we suggested in section 2.4., populations are becoming increasingly urban. It is argued that the new middle classes are increasingly residing in a large pool of emerging cities that will represent half of global GDP growth and a quarter of the world’s population by 2025.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Technology and media: enabling growth, facilitating inequality?
It is tempting to overstate the influence of technological change on the evolving landscape of the European Union in the long and short term. Yet, technological change is possible only to the extent that individuals and societies understand, accept and absorb technology, or contribute to its development in a variety of ways (ITU, 2011; World Bank, 2012; OECD, 2012a; Perez, 2010). Without this human factor, which ranges from tolerance to adherence, technological change in itself would be close to irrelevant, as past human fears and rejections of new technologies – especially during periods of industrial revolution – suggest. However, the benefit of technological change should be weighed carefully, since the phenomenon is both an enabler and a facilitator of greater ambitions and an accelerator of inequalities between the high- and low-skilled (see Cave et al., 2009; Facer and Sandford, 2012). To this extent, technological change is perhaps one of the most illustrative examples of a cross-cutting issue with uncertain consequences, as it impacts labour, economic growth and other technologies, sometimes in twoway relationships. For instance, in the relationship between labour markets and technology creation, does the latter enable the former or vice versa? The impact of technology on issues ranging from education to skills or demand for political change will depend to a large extent to the adoption of technology. This is likely to be a major driver for change, insofar as future inequalities are projected to revolve around the ability to reap the benefit of technological change for capacity building (in terms of skills, literacy, etc).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Economic recovery: from double-dip recession towards sustained slow growth?
In this period of economic crisis, tensions and distortions, it is often suggested that while short-term measures can alleviate the worst effects of the downturn, economic growth will be the long-term solution to many of the issues currently faced by both developed and emerging countries. As a result, several factors will interact with economic growth to play a significant role in enabling – or hindering – economic recovery. In the longer run, the key question lies in determining the possible transformative effects of economic growth, or lack of it, on the EU landscape.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Barriers to connectedness: wired but disconnected?
There is evidence that the financial crisis has led to a slowdown of globalisation, connectedness and economic integration. According to the DHL Global Connectedness Index 2012, the global connectedness of the world today is than it was in 2007 and still has to reach pre-crisis levels, with capital connectedness declining and service trades remaining stagnant since 2007 (Ghemawat and Altman, 2012). There is additional evidence that suggests that financial deepening (the expansion of financial markets and banking systems) and globalisation (as measured by financial integration and cross-border capital flows) have stalled as a result of the crisis (McKinsey Global Institute, 2013).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Filters and catalysts for water purification
2006
Global Technology Revolution 2020
RAND Corporation