Trends Identified
Shift to global cooperation
Between today and 2030, the world will be characterized by increasing globalization, greater global complexity and technological advancement. Future problems will include international crises and serious risks of environmental pollution, affecting virtually every country in the world. These developments show how vulnerable the world is and will lead to a greater awareness of global responsibility.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Growing power of NGOs
Non-governmentorganizations(NGOs)likeAmnestyInternational,Greenpeace,WorldwideFundforNature,Transparency International, Human Rights Watch and Oxfam will grow significantly up to 2030. They will continuously increase the influence of global civil society and raise awareness for issues such as environmental protection, social justice and human rights. Low entry costs, low overheads and the capacity of individuals and groups to affiliate with each other using the Internet are facilitating this development. In particular, the global conferences of the United Nations (UN), starting with the Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, have given NGOs a new position and greater acceptance.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Increasing philanthropy
Philanthropy will grow further on a global level up to 2030. Global donations and grants to Greenpeace increased consistently at the rate of 4% p.a. from 2000 to 2009; donations to Amnesty are currently ten times what they were in 1990. Global willingness to donate was not even stopped by the global financial crisis. The Haiti earthquake in 2010 led to USD 1.4 billion in donations to 96 organizations. About 30% of the world's population donates money to a charity every year, so the world will have about 2.5 billion active philanthropists by 2030. The growth of philanthropy also has a strongly emotional aspect: there is a strong correlation between giving money and happiness, with a coefficient of about 0.69.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Demographic dynamics
The growth and aging of populations, migration, and urbanization are factors that will shape the course of societies and economies. As one of seven megatrends identified and analyzed in our Trend Compendium 2030, changing trends in demographics loom large. In this publication, we take a focused look at demographic dynamics, their impact on our world, and how they will affect the way we do business.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Globalization & future markets
Globalization is a multifaceted process not limited to economic effects — political and social aspects are closely intertwined. But globalization has both proponents and critics. As the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump shows, the progress of free trade agreements and thus globalization strongly depends on the accordance and objectives of political leaders. In an interconnected world, migration constitutes one major facet of globalization with a strong impact on society and political debate.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Scarcity of resources
Population and GDP growth, urbanization, and a growing global middle class lead to an increasing demand for energy. Continued development in non-OECD countries is expected to increase demand by 29% between now and 2030, mostly concentrated in Asia, and particularly China and India. In 2030, like today, most energy will come from fossil fuels. A continued reliance on fossil fuels is tempting, but it also risks accelerating climate change. Despite the dominance of fossil fuels, the sun remains a vast, mostly untapped energy source, delivering more than 1,300 times the Earth's daily energy consumption to land each day. Water and food also stand to become increasingly scarce—we predict global water demand to rise 32% by 2050, driven mostly by the growing manufacturing and electricity sectors. Scarcity of water is already widespread, however, and even today many European countries face low resources per capita. By 2050, over 50% of the world's population will live in water-stressed areas. Demand for food will also increase 43% by 2050, mostly driven by population growth and changing eating habits. A final area of scarcity is critical raw materials. China is the major supplier of these materials, which include rare earth elements and metals. Demand for these raw materials will grow depending on the supply situation. The main challenge associated with these shortages is one of regional imbalance: most critical raw materials are produced outside of Europe, and conflict over these resources could arise between developed and developing countries.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Climate change & ecosystem at risk
Global warming and strategies to offset carbon emissions are two of the most prevalent issues of the 21st century. As economies continue to grow, so too does the demand for energy and, as a result, CO2 emissions. As part of Roland Berger’s leading Trend Compendium 2030 , this in-depth analysis takes a detailed look at what growing energy demands mean for the future of industry. We investigate three key components – global warming, rising CO2 emissions, and the obstacles faced by our ecosystems – to uncover the global challenges that climate change will bring with it.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Dynamic technology & innovation
Over the coming decades, disruptive, as well as enduring innovations will change our lives and drive wealth. There is a positive power to innovation, as it helps to solve the major challenges facing humanity, for example providing water, food and healthcare for a growing and aging population, using resources more efficiently, or fighting climate change. The fields of biology, chemistry and pharmaceuticals hold particular promise in combating these challenges. In terms of patent applications, life sciences markets are increasingly shifting from the US to Asian countries, while national research clusters in Asia are beginning to flourish.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Global knowledge society
In this study, we zero in on megatrend number six, the Global Knowledge Society, and its three subtrends: know-how base, war for talent, and gender gap. From basic education to workplace applications, we uncover the challenges and opportunities that lay ahead in the field of education and the need for a skilled workforce. We begin by looking at how the diffusion of knowledge can be increased. Education, of course, is the foundation of the know-how base. We track how the number of years spent in primary, lower and upper secondary, and tertiary education directly correspond to increased GDP per capita. We also examine literacy rates, how enrollment figures differ between world regions, and what can be done to level the field. This will be a critical step in ending the war for talent, where certain demographics in established economies have left them lacking skilled workers—approximately 38% of employers struggle to find suitable candidates—and emerging regions are threatened with a brain drain. We continue by examining the gender gap, comparing figures across developed and developing regions, and identifying the factors that must be addressed to bridge the difference.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Sustainability & global responsibility
In times of manifold conflicts and global challenges such as climate change, the need for societal and economic sustainability, as well as global responsibility, is only too evident. In particular, the increasing number of intrastate conflicts is calling for an enduring coordination of international governance in the future. For companies and their global value chains, this suggests a need to review potential areas of conflict more vigilantly.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants