Trends Identified
People
There is an implicit narrative about how the future will look: the big advances will be in “hard” disciplines like digital technology or material science. After all, some of our most spectacular successes in recent history, from space travel to the internet to smartphones, have been founded on work in these hard disciplines. This, it is said, is why education in the STEM fields is of utmost importance, because those will be the jobs of the future. The common vision of the future is of gleaming computers and sterile glass and steel constructions. But perhaps we are at an inflexion point, and rumblings of this change are already starting to become visible.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Philosophies
It is hard to deny that the past few centuries have been Western centuries—the economic power and military might of the US and Europe were, and still are, unparalleled. Some of the philosophies characteristic of the modern West—globalisation, free trade capitalism and liberal democracy— have become the de facto organising principles of the world. These three organising principles have advanced science, raised the standards of living of hundreds of millions, and freed many from tyranny, oppression, sickness and poverty. While some hope that these principles will gain further traction, it is growing apparent that they may be threatened by the consequences they are producing. Even as adherence to these philosophies have benefited many, some appear to have benefitted far, far more than others. This inequality, along with growing awareness of it, has in recent years blossomed and borne strange fruit. The votes for Brexit in the UK and for President Donald Trump in the US were arguably expressions of a deep anger at the elite few who have hogged the rewards of progress. But alternative organising principles are emerging. As the UK and US enter a period of political turbulence, the “China model” appears to offer political stability. Political philosopher Daniel Bell argues that the rise of China and Beijing’s resolve to tackle longer-term challenges, for example, make the Chinese model of political meritocracy more attractive. This involves rigorous selection of top leaders based on performance over decades, at provincial and national levels, and on virtue. Oman and the UAE are Gulf states ruled by monarchies whose legal systems extensively incorporate Sharia law. Yet they are widely reputed for high levels of modernisation and thriving economies. Others seek to smooth the rough edges of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism: inequality and marginalisation. Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, for example, is developing a “New Democracy” to bolster inclusion—by providing more information to citizens so they can take part in decision-making. Which way the world will turn is uncertain.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
The next frontier in power and commerce: Outer space
Outer space has emerged as a new strategic arena. Competition among countries to project power through space is intensifying as technological advances and growing commercial interests make outer space more accessible. These advances hold the promise of resource exploitation and territorial claims for human settlements. There are early parallels between what is happening in space and what happened in the seas in the colonial era. While these parallels hint that developments in space might be disorderly, they also suggest how nations could work together in the next frontier—through global rules for the global commons.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
China's rise to as a technological superpower
China’s capacity and ambitions for research and development (R&D) have grown considerably over recent years. China’s assets range from national science programmes and sustained R&D investments, to its large cohorts of scientists and huge domestic market. These have helped China catch up technologically, and even take the lead in some areas. Even though it still lags traditional R&D powerhouses in some areas, the technological centre of gravity could shift east in time, with China becoming more dominant in global R&D.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
India's take-off?
At US$2 trillion in value, India’s economy is one of the world’s great engines of growth. It stands poised to reap a demographic dividend: around half of India’s 1.2 billion people are under the age of 26, and by 2020, India is forecast to be the youngest country in the world. Crucially, PM Narendra Modi has embarked on structural reforms (such as demonetisation, goods and services tax reform) that could lay the foundation for long-term growth. India’s future may yet arrive
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
The human cloud in the future of work
While the risk of job displacement due to advances in artificial intelligence and robotics preoccupies many commentators, another pressing problem deserves attention: the mismatch between workers’ skills and available work. If only employers and workers could connect across the barrier of geographical distance, perhaps this mismatch could ease. Could the “human cloud”—a global pool of skilled workers working remotely for employers and clients—be a solution?
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Growing healthy in a sluggish world
How can Singapore grow more dynamic and resilient as an economy, given concerns about sluggish global growth and the implications for Singapore.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
The rise of the sharing economy
As platforms for home sharing and ride sharing have grown popular, the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) has been exploring the sharing economy and its implications for Singapore.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Who's afraid of artificial intelligence
After losing three games of Go to Google Deepmind’s AlphaGo, the world’s second-ranked Go player in 2016, Lee Sedol, said, “I will have to express my apologies first. I should have shown a better result, a better outcome.” While Lee was apologising for his play, many also understood his statement as an apology for the limits of human intelligence and the advent of a superior form—Artificial Intelligence (AI).
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Igniting the neuroscience economy
Imagine exploring one of the last frontiers of science: the more than 90 billion neurons that make up the human brain. What if a Google Maps of the brain existed and anyone could see “street views” of neural connections and explore the topography of neurons? This is what neural mapping hopes to achieve. Since they started in 2013, the US Human Connectome Project and the European Commission’s Human Brain Project have driven research about the brain’s circuitry—how the brain and thinking work. Such work has spurred innovative techniques, such as algebraic topology analysis, which uses complex algebra to explore the brain’s 3D structure.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures